headgasketidiot t1_ixmoqwy wrote
Reply to comment by somedudevt in Best heating oil company to use? We need kerosene but can't afford $7/ gallon at the company we called. New to this type of heating and kinda struggling to figure this out. Company says minimum of 100 gallon order. Our tank is 275g . 275x7= omg in gonna freeze to death. by [deleted]
You're wrong, actually. You're mad at the wrong people. From https://vtdigger.org/2022/08/12/wildly-unusual-census-shows-explosion-of-migration-into-vermont-in-pandemics-first-year/
>More than 4,800 people moved to Vermont between 2020 and 2021, the highest net migration total the state has reported in at least a decade, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates.
4800 people is around .7% of the population. That's not what is driving up the costs. Costs are going up because the rich are getting richer and are hoarding everything, including other people's houses. 50% of all new construction and 20% of existing housing is second homes. Corporate buyers are making up almost 25% of all SFH sales in the state, up from just 5% a couple decades ago.
And it's not just housing - oil companies have been consistently posting record profits since oil prices went through the roof, which is how we even got to this post.
We are watching our housing turn into a rent trap before our very eyes; we are watching our neighbors are increasingly unable to heat their homes, and you are taking it out on this poor fucking person who can't afford to heat their house.
You are on the same fucking team. You are both victims of the same system. Maybe, instead of being dicks to other people in similar situations as you because they moved here from a different state, we can learn a bit of class solidarity. Or you can keep doing what you're doing, and normal people can continue to squabble among ourselves for the scraps while the rich leave us less and less. The former actually has a chance of making our lives better; the latter makes you feel smug on the internet.
somedudevt t1_ixmpxma wrote
Yes class solidarity… I expect the same on both sides. To say those 5000 people didn’t increase housing costs is just false. Yes second homes and Air BnB are a big issue, and should be addressed legislatively through taxes so high they force sale. But the people coming here may be “on the same side” but they are exacerbating the issue. So at the end of the day they are hurting people who are here. If we open our arms and welcome everyone our issues get worse. We need to be honest that there are major issues, and that people coming here fleeing higher prices elsewhere make that worse.
I’m a liberal through and through, but I don’t want people who have issues where they are solving them by making our issues worse. If they have structural issues with cost where they are fleeing from, or some other issue (public health policy, woman’s rights, gay rights, racism) fleeing the issue because they have means to do so instead of fighting doesn’t make things better.
headgasketidiot t1_ixmr6gt wrote
You misunderstand the scale of the data.
5000 people is about 2000 households. That's a drop in the bucket compared to the TENS OF THOUSANDS of houses that are second homes, or the approximately hundred thousand or so houses owned by landlords.
You are fighting over scraps with the least important factor in your problem.
somedudevt t1_ixmstnj wrote
So your saying demand reducing supply doesn’t increase cost? I can tell you if you pull up Zillow and zoom out state level there are not 2000 units available statewide. So adding 2000 households without the same number of new units prices rise. The base issue may be second homes, unoccupied homes, Airbnb etc. but in the immediate term 1 person moving here takes a house from one local person. That one person could stay where they are, not increase costs here, and get active locally to address the problems they have where they are from, which could improve things there.
At some point we can’t be the haven for everyone everywhere. People need to fight the systems where they are to improve things there, otherwise we will become those places.
headgasketidiot t1_ixmzfsw wrote
Pulling up the number of houses for sale right now on Zillow in one of the slowest months of the year has absolutely nothing to do with anything. In fact, if you knew at all what you were talking about, you'd realize that actually hurts your point. Let me explain.
Here's some actual data. It's a graph of the number of houses for sale every month for 5 years. In the on-season, it's pretty typical for well over a thousand homes to sell every month. Even in the slow months, it can often clear a thousand. If you look at a chart of how many houses get listed every year, that number is going down because, as I keep repeating, the wealthy are buying up more and more of the houses. That is what is causing housing prices to skyrocket. The pool is shrinking.
Why is the pool shrinking? As this graph shows, the pool shrinking is happening at the same time as investors are buying up the housing. Once someone who doesn't plan to live in it buys up a house as an investment, it is out of the homeowner pool and, in the best case scenario, it turns into a rental, though it is increasingly likely it turns into an airbnb.
We haven't even gotten to the vacation homes yet, which is approximately 10,000 homes. That is 5x the number of households as have moved here.
What you're doing is scapegoating, pure and simple. These effects cannot be explained by 2000 more households. The scale is off by an order of magnitude, and the timelines are off. This started before the pandemic. It's the continuation of a trend that has been going on since 2008, but has really picked up steam since 2017 or so.
edit: accidentally hit save early
>At some point we can’t be the haven for everyone everywhere. People need to fight the systems where they are to improve things there, otherwise we will become those places.
You keep acting like people are moving here in droves, when in reality they are not. 4,800 people is absolutely fucking tiny. There are dozens of mid-sized cities throughout the country growing faster than that. You're making up a phenomenon that doesn't exist and then using it as a scapegoat for the more complicated problems that are actually happening that, for whatever reason, you have some vested interest in not accepting. I genuinely do not understand.
Corey307 t1_ixnutnq wrote
Something to consider is lower income people are leaving the state. I don’t have numbers but I know a few who have left and a few are leaving, all are lower middle class. Most were priced out or sold and moved somewhere where their money went further. I don’t know a whole lot of people but the people I do know are working blue colored folk and a lot are getting pushed out.
I’m a transplant too, came here about four years ago. Bought a house that had sat on the market because back then the market was pretty soft. It’s lovely here and I’ve tried to integrate but it’s getting harder to justify staying since everything is more expensive here. It’s hard paying $6,000 in property taxes a year after the homestead exemption when I could sell and buy a house almost for cash with the proceeds in a lower tax state.
somedudevt t1_ixn6frf wrote
Also the Digger article you posted was 7/20-7/22. The headline even says in the 1st year of the pandemic. We don’t know what the last 16 months looks like, but housing prices peaked and stock available reached its low in like June this year, so I’d expect we gained another 5-6k. That would be 10000 people in 2 years.
headgasketidiot t1_ixnb3a3 wrote
You're right; idk how I misread that graph. Will edit.
It really doesn't change the argument though. Doubling or even quintupling the number doesn't change anything when we're talking about different orders of magnitude.
somedudevt t1_ixox5gi wrote
But it does. Even an infinitesimal demand side imbalance can cause chaos on supply and price. Look at the stock market, and the concept of a squeeze. If you can get demand to even slightly outstrip supply you can create a cyclical effect where price rises because price is rising. The market snowballs.
If you have 10 houses on the market and 10 buyers the price will be at or below ask. If you have 10 houses and 11 buyers someone (the out of stater with means) will bid up the price on one property. When they do that the market resets at that new rate Bob down the road says “I have equity now as the market is up, I’m going to list” he lists at the inflated rate, and because we had 11 buyers and 10 houses the 11th buyer is suckered into that higher rate. And since thats the new rate Suzy across town says “I wonder if I can get x for my property and lists even higher, Bob pockets full from the inflated sale bites on that and we keep the cycle going up. Add in near 0 interest rates, full employment, Covid relief money, millennials starting to inherit boomer money, stuff goes arwry. It doesn’t take a large imbalance in supply and demand to make that swing. Houses needing work have been selling above assessed value no inspection, because demand is there. AND don’t pretend these are investments. The OP bought cash, and said so. All of my friends who have been outbid were outbid by cash offers who are residing in the homes. The investment thing is an issue in places where there is a value in investing in property. But that’s not Barton, or Orange, Or vershire.
[deleted] OP t1_ixq4t80 wrote
[deleted]
headgasketidiot t1_ixq6wvv wrote
I've given you so much actual data. This entire comment is literally a made up story, an anecdotal observation, and ending on an unsupported (and factually incorrect) claim based on absolutely nothing, all while completely ignoring all the actual real data I've laid out for you.
>But it does. Even an infinitesimal demand side imbalance can cause chaos on supply and price. Look at the stock market, and the concept of a squeeze. If you can get demand to even slightly outstrip supply you can create a cyclical effect where price rises because price is rising. The market snowballs.
How changes in supply and demand affect pricing in general and in housing specifically are both open areas of research in economics. Papers are still being written about it.
Squeezes are the result of derivative financial instruments. That has absolutely nothing to do housing. Like, there's no point here. There's no analogous situation in our housing market to a short squeeze. The only thing they have in common is that they're both markets, but you could not have chosen two more different markets.
>If you have 10 houses on the market and 10 buyers the price will be at or below ask. If you have 10 houses and 11 buyers someone (the out of stater with means) will bid up the price on one property. When they do that the market resets at that new rate Bob down the road says “I have equity now as the market is up, I’m going to list” he lists at the inflated rate, and because we had 11 buyers and 10 houses the 11th buyer is suckered into that higher rate. And since thats the new rate Suzy across town says “I wonder if I can get x for my property and lists even higher, Bob pockets full from the inflated sale bites on that and we keep the cycle going up. Add in near 0 interest rates, full employment, Covid relief money, millennials starting to inherit boomer money, stuff goes arwry. It doesn’t take a large imbalance in supply and demand to make that swing. Houses needing work have been selling above assessed value no inspection, because demand is there.
This is a work of fiction. Boby and Suzy aren't real. There are more than 10 houses in the world. Yeah, no shit the hypothetical you invented supports your argument. I don't know why you're making up stories when I've given you actual, real data.
>All of my friends who have been outbid were outbid by cash offers who are residing in the homes.
Anecdote. That's entirely possible, but if it is the case, then it's a statistical anomaly. Again, we have really good data on who is buying homes, and we know that regular people like OP buying houses in cash is the exception. 70% of home buyers finance, and once you include financing and contingencies on selling their previous home, that's virtually all regular human buyers. No contingencies and with cash, statistically, is investors.
>The investment thing is an issue in places where there is a value in investing in property. But that’s not Barton, or Orange, Or vershire.
Unsupported claim. You have no idea and clearly just made that up.
somedudevt t1_ixn5mo8 wrote
Have you attempted to do a real estate transaction since Covid? Specifically up to the point the fed starting jacking up rates?
I know countless people who in central and eastern VT have been outbid by cash offers at or over asking price by out of staters who have remote jobs, or have accepted a local job, and are fleeing stuff in other places.
Commodities are impacted by supply and demand plain and simple. If there is 100 gallons of gas available, and there is a demand for 101 gallons of gas ALL 100 gallons go up to the price of the highest offer. The same is true with housing. If you increase demand above supply the whole market rises. Investors are a problem in Burlington, Stowe, killington etc. they are not buying property in Hardwick, or Calais, or Orange, Morrisville, Barton, etc but prices in those places are rising as new people move in And new housing isn’t brought online to offset the demand inbalance.
As for home sales, yes houses trade hands regularly, 1000 houses can be sold, and if 1000 people leave and 1000 people arrive we are ok.. if the net is 0 new residents a system is stable with the same stock being traded among new residents by those leaving. But people are not leaving. So we have 1000 people leaving and 1100 coming in. There is more demand for housing than there is supply. So every house that is a net new resident is a house off the market out of circulation. This is fairly simple stuff.
And I’m not saying the investment shit isn’t the main source of the issue, I’m saying that any pressure on top of that does have a negative impact that people should be aware of. If we solve the investment/2nd home thing then we have capacity, but with that not solved we don’t need new residents and they do make the issue worse, and anyone denying that is just plain not paying attention.
headgasketidiot t1_ixn9nam wrote
>I know countless people who in central and eastern VT have been outbid by cash offers at or over asking price by out of staters who have remote jobs, or have accepted a local job, and are fleeing stuff in other places.
Those out-of-state cash offers are basically always investors. Private equity firms usually don't say they are private equity firms when they're buying houses, and people who lose out on houses don't get to meet the people who outbid them. What you're hearing is what your friend's realtor heard from the seller's realtor who heard it from the other buyer's realtor who probably heard it from the buyer's lawyer, because they're an investment firm, and not a person.
It's gossip, and it's gossip that suits the investors because it distracts from what is happening. I wouldn't even be surprised if they are telling sellers' agents that they're out of state remote workers just to muddy the waters. Seriously, this isn't even an anecdote - it's a rumor. This is why we use data to understand what is happening, and not what the local rumor mill is saying about it.
I believe you that your friends have had that experience, and that REALLY FUCKING SUCKS. I am SO MAD on their behalf. I don't want to live in a world where my friends and neighbors are priced out. I want to fix this problem, but like I have said over and over, you are angry at the wrong people. Your friends keep being outbid by investors, not by people like OP, because there are not enough people like OP to even come close to explaining your friends being constantly outbid. Your friends don't know they are losing out to investors because why would the investors go around advertising that? How would your friends even know? They are reporting the best information that they have, which is a rumor they heard from their realtor.
Corey307 t1_ixnvjn8 wrote
So I’m originally from Los Angeles and still have friends there. A few of them have been trying to buy a condo or townhouse for a couple years and consistently get beat by cash bids and a lot of those cash bids are coming from investors or companies that run massive amounts of properties. Investors aren’t content to just own apartment complexes now, there’s plenty of money to be made from owning individual units or slowly buying up an entire condo complex. Same thing is happening here and the more real estate that is held by a handful of people or companies the higher prices go.
headgasketidiot t1_ixop8q2 wrote
Yeah exactly. This is happening all around the world. The world's rich have been getting steadily richer since 2008, and they're moving that capital into housing. This is why it bothers me so much that people here blame "out of staters." It's an international crisis, not some hyper-local niche situation in our little backwater.
Corey307 t1_ixowxht wrote
The NIMBY assholes and all the red tape you have to cut through to build a house here certainly doesn’t help. Chittenden county desperately needs affordable housing and the most cost effective and efficient way to do so is to build some medium rise apartment complexes. The working class and lower middle class people who work in Chittenden county need a place to live that isn’t some shitty house build 150 years ago subdivided into studios that won’t get to 67° inside with the heat on full blast. It also shouldn’t be so difficult nor expensive to build a house in this state. Just the permitting and environmental impact bs to put in a septic system cost as much as the system. It’s urine and feces not radioactive waste or coal ash for crying out loud both do not hurt the environment much.
Corey307 t1_ixoz3id wrote
So this is extremely rough math but one could build four 250 unit apartment complexes on about 4 to 5 acres of land total depending on if there was below ground parking or not. I’m talking about very simple housing with 500 ft.² units in a 5 story building. If you make it five stories the footprint is about 25,000 ft.², add another 2,000-3,000 ft.² for paths, exterior building dimensions and whatever.
That leaves you with about 16,000 ft.². Your average parking space is about 320 ft.² you’ve only got parking for about 50 cars at max. One level of below ground parking would easily add another 50 cars. If each building lot was 1.5 acres you can get to about 200 cars between above and below ground parking, still a little short so maybe bump up to 7 acres for 1,000+ cars.
So yeah it’s not as simple as building a single family home on .08 acres but there has to be 6-7 buildable acres somewhere in this county. Hell build all four together, makes building parking easier. Or get a shuttle bus or two running nonstop into Burlington, that would be great for people who can’t afford, don’t want or can no longer drive a car.
Is it perfect? Hell no but I look at my little neighborhood and we have about eight houses on about 25 acres housing maybe 25 people on the outskirts of Chittenden County and my roughed out idea houses 40 times as many on 30% as much land. And yes I’m talking about very basic accommodations but that would work fine for a lot of working class people and young people. They’d still be close enough to commute to work without breaking the bank and if it was financially feasible a shuttle system would help even more. It doesn’t solve for all problems but it definitely helps.
Corey307 t1_ixnv4xp wrote
Except we do need new residents, if you haven’t noticed all the businesses closing or that are barely open because they can’t staff up you must not go out much. Yes the state doesn’t need more work from home remote job types, the state needs blue collar workers and the lack of affordable housing or housing in general deters people from coming here as does typical crap Vermont wages. But people with money bought up large amounts of property for rentals or Airbnb, that’s the real problem.
Corey307 t1_ixnu38u wrote
Those 5,000 people didn’t drive up home prices by 50-100+%. transplants are nowhere near the primary cause of housing prices going crazy.
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