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somedudevt t1_ixn6frf wrote

Reply to comment by headgasketidiot in Best heating oil company to use? We need kerosene but can't afford $7/ gallon at the company we called. New to this type of heating and kinda struggling to figure this out. Company says minimum of 100 gallon order. Our tank is 275g . 275x7= omg in gonna freeze to death. by [deleted]

Also the Digger article you posted was 7/20-7/22. The headline even says in the 1st year of the pandemic. We don’t know what the last 16 months looks like, but housing prices peaked and stock available reached its low in like June this year, so I’d expect we gained another 5-6k. That would be 10000 people in 2 years.

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headgasketidiot t1_ixnb3a3 wrote

You're right; idk how I misread that graph. Will edit.

It really doesn't change the argument though. Doubling or even quintupling the number doesn't change anything when we're talking about different orders of magnitude.

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somedudevt t1_ixox5gi wrote

But it does. Even an infinitesimal demand side imbalance can cause chaos on supply and price. Look at the stock market, and the concept of a squeeze. If you can get demand to even slightly outstrip supply you can create a cyclical effect where price rises because price is rising. The market snowballs.

If you have 10 houses on the market and 10 buyers the price will be at or below ask. If you have 10 houses and 11 buyers someone (the out of stater with means) will bid up the price on one property. When they do that the market resets at that new rate Bob down the road says “I have equity now as the market is up, I’m going to list” he lists at the inflated rate, and because we had 11 buyers and 10 houses the 11th buyer is suckered into that higher rate. And since thats the new rate Suzy across town says “I wonder if I can get x for my property and lists even higher, Bob pockets full from the inflated sale bites on that and we keep the cycle going up. Add in near 0 interest rates, full employment, Covid relief money, millennials starting to inherit boomer money, stuff goes arwry. It doesn’t take a large imbalance in supply and demand to make that swing. Houses needing work have been selling above assessed value no inspection, because demand is there. AND don’t pretend these are investments. The OP bought cash, and said so. All of my friends who have been outbid were outbid by cash offers who are residing in the homes. The investment thing is an issue in places where there is a value in investing in property. But that’s not Barton, or Orange, Or vershire.

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headgasketidiot t1_ixq6wvv wrote

I've given you so much actual data. This entire comment is literally a made up story, an anecdotal observation, and ending on an unsupported (and factually incorrect) claim based on absolutely nothing, all while completely ignoring all the actual real data I've laid out for you.

>But it does. Even an infinitesimal demand side imbalance can cause chaos on supply and price. Look at the stock market, and the concept of a squeeze. If you can get demand to even slightly outstrip supply you can create a cyclical effect where price rises because price is rising. The market snowballs.

How changes in supply and demand affect pricing in general and in housing specifically are both open areas of research in economics. Papers are still being written about it.

Squeezes are the result of derivative financial instruments. That has absolutely nothing to do housing. Like, there's no point here. There's no analogous situation in our housing market to a short squeeze. The only thing they have in common is that they're both markets, but you could not have chosen two more different markets.

>If you have 10 houses on the market and 10 buyers the price will be at or below ask. If you have 10 houses and 11 buyers someone (the out of stater with means) will bid up the price on one property. When they do that the market resets at that new rate Bob down the road says “I have equity now as the market is up, I’m going to list” he lists at the inflated rate, and because we had 11 buyers and 10 houses the 11th buyer is suckered into that higher rate. And since thats the new rate Suzy across town says “I wonder if I can get x for my property and lists even higher, Bob pockets full from the inflated sale bites on that and we keep the cycle going up. Add in near 0 interest rates, full employment, Covid relief money, millennials starting to inherit boomer money, stuff goes arwry. It doesn’t take a large imbalance in supply and demand to make that swing. Houses needing work have been selling above assessed value no inspection, because demand is there.

This is a work of fiction. Boby and Suzy aren't real. There are more than 10 houses in the world. Yeah, no shit the hypothetical you invented supports your argument. I don't know why you're making up stories when I've given you actual, real data.

>All of my friends who have been outbid were outbid by cash offers who are residing in the homes.

Anecdote. That's entirely possible, but if it is the case, then it's a statistical anomaly. Again, we have really good data on who is buying homes, and we know that regular people like OP buying houses in cash is the exception. 70% of home buyers finance, and once you include financing and contingencies on selling their previous home, that's virtually all regular human buyers. No contingencies and with cash, statistically, is investors.

>The investment thing is an issue in places where there is a value in investing in property. But that’s not Barton, or Orange, Or vershire.

Unsupported claim. You have no idea and clearly just made that up.

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