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burn15_ t1_j9l779y wrote

Reply to comment by Dry_Job_1084 in Everyone is making predictions…why not then? SPY will stay between $407 and $427 until August 2023. Yes, I love crayons 🖍️ by Dry_Job_1084

At what point is it no longer $407.

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Dry_Job_1084 OP t1_j9mmyz8 wrote

My prediction is for 6 months, not for 2 days. So closing price today at $308.54 is 2% under what I predicted as a low ($407). If I am wrong by 2% for a week out of 6 months, I consider that a win. Specially if I’m correct for the other 5 months and 21 days. Don’t you think it is too early for conclusions on a 6 month prediction made 2 trading days ago? Now, if in a month SPY is down to $380, then I would be the first to say that I was wrong. But, if in the next 5 months SPY makes it to $427 or higher and stays above $400, I will consider my prediction for the 6 month period pretty darn accurate.

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burn15_ t1_j9n0mr5 wrote

But your prediction says that it will stay between 407-427. Not 380-450. Why put numbers there if they mean absolutely nothing

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Dry_Job_1084 OP t1_j9oavvu wrote

Impossible to explain predictive analytics to you I guess. All predictions of the future come with a margin of error. A 5% margin of error in a predictive analysis is extremely good. I should know. I do this for a living. Not in financial markets, but in business trends and inventory management. Same skills, different datasets

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burn15_ t1_j9p732u wrote

Did predictive analytics tell you to buy workhorse at $14/share? Currently $1.96

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Dry_Job_1084 OP t1_j9pf1os wrote

Hell no! 😂 Made good money with that stock about 2 years ago. That one and SPCE were cash cows back then!

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burn15_ t1_j9tkl5n wrote

Down to $395 my man. A far cry from $407. I once again would call this over before it began.

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