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yorklebit t1_ja1i1in wrote

All of the below is just my personal opinion and should not be construed as anything except that. Probably what happens is the market stays stuck in a range or goes down until the Fed stops raising interest rates. When they stop or make it clear (firmly) they will stop soon, the market starts going up from that point. How low it goes before it starts going up again is anybody's guess, but will probably depend on how severely they continue to raise rates and how severe the economic fallout from the rate-raising is.

You can see on a chart (e.g. SPY) how the market attempted an uptrend starting about mid October last year. IMO this was predicated on the (putative, forthcoming) ending of interest rates rising. Now that is majorly in question and so the uptrend is in question and MAY fail and turn out to be one of those famous "dead cat bounces."

Economically, good news is bad news right now, until the good news doesn't imply a rate raise anymore.

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