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Potential_Project_48 t1_ja9r6p6 wrote

If you zoom out a bit, we once again traded in the same range of a week ago since tuesday.

Looks more like it's basing/consolidating for another move higher, imo.

VIX literally in the 20s, there's no fear in this market. Was expecting more dump from the PCE surprise, but we got nothing.

The ingredient in all of last year's sell-offs was the momentum, as it's harder for the market to sell than to naturally drift higher. We need a catalyst to make it regain momentum, imo. Otherwise bears will probably drop the ball.

Reminds me of the December sell-off that stalled after losing momentum, everyone thought it was the start of the next leg down, instead it then moved sideways.

Edit: Very telling of sentiment here with bears downvoting my opinion 😂😂. Last time this happened in January, we mooned right afterwards 😂😂.

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dramarehab t1_ja9sh8e wrote

Only piece of the puzzle that you're missing and is different from December are ZQ{?}3 contracts that are finally starting to price in higher terminal rates.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_ja9tz7p wrote

The issue I have with that, is how the market has been rallying since the October lows where the fed has raised over 100bps since then, and earnings are worse now than when they were in Q3. Market is not acting rational, and I don't expect it to until a recession smacks it in the face.

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curly_as_fuck t1_jaa4fl8 wrote

The market sees the rate pause not too far off in the distance. An announcement of 25 bps and not 50 will get us going. The hikes will start working.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_jaa6vv2 wrote

Yes, it always comes with a big lag. I suspect Q3 is when they will be felt and the shit will hit the fan.

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curly_as_fuck t1_jaaarfa wrote

I’m wondering if it might be a bit longer time frame before it gets bad. When unemployment starts rising the fed is likely going to start cuts which I would think would be a major catalyst upwards with a crash to come later.

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itachisasuked t1_jacecqs wrote

The stock market is not the economy or earnings it’s price action

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DaddyDersch OP t1_ja9zvz5 wrote

Agreed but we are still down trending for now.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_jaa4oow wrote

Yeah definitely, don't think we'll break out this week, but I mean consolidate for the next two weeks like Dec.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_jaapiwq wrote

I still think we trade 390 to 405 till cpi most likely

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Potential_Project_48 t1_jaarpvz wrote

Wow didn't realize that CPI is exactly 2 weeks after today, with FOMC and March OPEX that same week. Yeah, lol your take makes the most sense, I'd imagine the big boys want to wait for that stuff to roll off first before doing anything major...

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DaddyDersch OP t1_jaasd92 wrote

Yeah middle to end of march is about to be wild

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SheriffVA t1_jab3f03 wrote

This guy got downvoted but he is accurate. We are headed into a December like rectangle pattern. Most likely hitting 390 and overshooting it a few points but will bounce off it and stay range bound.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_jab3j0e wrote

This guy actually makes money.

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SheriffVA t1_jab5d8e wrote

I just sell people the ‘omg spy gonna moon next day or crater next day’ 1-2 day 3-5% OTM options when its clearly going to be consolidation.

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