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dramarehab t1_ja9sh8e wrote

Reply to comment by Potential_Project_48 in The road to 390… 2-27-23 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Daily Market Analysis by DaddyDersch

Only piece of the puzzle that you're missing and is different from December are ZQ{?}3 contracts that are finally starting to price in higher terminal rates.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_ja9tz7p wrote

The issue I have with that, is how the market has been rallying since the October lows where the fed has raised over 100bps since then, and earnings are worse now than when they were in Q3. Market is not acting rational, and I don't expect it to until a recession smacks it in the face.

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curly_as_fuck t1_jaa4fl8 wrote

The market sees the rate pause not too far off in the distance. An announcement of 25 bps and not 50 will get us going. The hikes will start working.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_jaa6vv2 wrote

Yes, it always comes with a big lag. I suspect Q3 is when they will be felt and the shit will hit the fan.

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curly_as_fuck t1_jaaarfa wrote

I’m wondering if it might be a bit longer time frame before it gets bad. When unemployment starts rising the fed is likely going to start cuts which I would think would be a major catalyst upwards with a crash to come later.

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itachisasuked t1_jacecqs wrote

The stock market is not the economy or earnings it’s price action

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