The Fed is yet to catch up to the Taylor Rule estimateSubmitted by Surlax t3_11e65gn in wallstreetbets
attofreak t1_jad01to wrote
Reply to comment by DougyRoss1980 in The Fed is yet to catch up to the Taylor Rule estimate by Surlax
The Central Banks basically inflating the economy with NIRP and mindless QE + loan programs, year after year, decade after decade, while we live in a low growth/low inflation environment. There were fears that would be our fate for a while now, and then suddenly this supply side constraints and sudden increase in demand shook things up. Newer generations are not only holding off on having kids, bringing down birth rate, they are also delaying participating in the conventional credit cycles, choosing a less productive lifestyle in non-STEM, non-business careers (trade schools etc), which is creating a talent gap (for now, USA can still fill it with immigration, and then the right-wing nuts lose their minds without seeing the bigger picture).
Everything is running on debt more than actual growth: the markets react positively to bad news because it means debt will be cheaper when Feds relent and decrease rates eventually. Corporations are spending money on share buybacks and monopolies pretty much hold the economy hostage. Tech used to lead the pack in growth because there was so much to reap from just Moore's Law scaling. Now we are at the end stage of that, plus a saturation of mobile computing and cloud computing. What we are left with are dubious future tech and protocols, which are desperately creating problems to solve than the other way.
Feds are way more powerful than BOJ, so they can still get away with most of it. And USA got their buddies in EU and western world to ensure it maintains dominance over rest of the world, while "outsourcing" its misery to the poorer countries in due time. But with rise of China, Asian and African countries finally have an alternative to the oppressive/meddling shenanigans of west. An open challenger stands in the way and the curmudgeons in American politics barely know how to respond besides the sanctions and bullying tactics - which China is using to its advantage to corner its part of the world.
EDIT: triggered the idiots already. You guys are a parody of yourself.
FeelTheH8 t1_jad4kme wrote
You lost me at saying trade school careers are causing us to be less productive. Having a good supply of competent people building and maintaining the country is a value add, not a subtraction...
QuantumWarrior t1_jadc0ix wrote
Didn't you know? Tech bros and middle managers are more productive than builders and plumbers and electricians.
FeelTheH8 t1_jadcy2n wrote
And they can do their work without working buildings, electricity, or plumbing! I mean, it's working fine right now, what do we even need trades for??
attofreak t1_jad586z wrote
Construction of buildings, putting plumbing lines, electricity outlets is not driving a country's innovation and tech lead, as shocking as it may be to comprehend that. This is such an inane comprehension of real world, I don't know where to begin explaining how stupid it is. By your "logic" - not even worth calling that, schools failed you terribly - developing countries should be world leaders because they are in fact overcrowded with low-skilled workers.
FeelTheH8 t1_jad79i9 wrote
Shoddy or delayed construction, plumbing, or electricity is a massive drain on the economy of a country. If there is a massive shortage of workers willing to even do the work and a lack of people with a couple brain cells to rub together entering the field due to your ridiculous mindset, the innovation and everything you rely on is not possible. Also, the trades wouldn't be paying such outsized wages if there wasn't such a need for them. Your argument makes the assumption you can remove the middle levels of the scaffolding and add to the top to help a country move forward.
The_Punicorn t1_jaemr6e wrote
You heard it here first gentlemen. You don't need basic infrastructure to be tech leaders and innovators. Candles and Papyrus only.
SufficientTowers t1_jad4f9c wrote
> for now, USA can still fill it with immigration, and then the right-wing nuts lose their minds without seeing the bigger picture
There's a touch of irony here. There's an even bigger picture you're not considering here that the "right wing nuts" are in the right about; longer term downward pressures on wages due to infinite labor supply, elimination of whole sectors of industry, as well as strain placed on social systems by importing net unproductive people. The immigration system in the US does not select for the best and brightest globally, unlike immigration systems in most other countries.
Comparative advantage needs to be held up against localized losses. It doesn't matter to the unemployed that everything is 10% cheaper when their jobs are eliminated and there's no path to retraining.
attofreak t1_jad5nvd wrote
> net unproductive people.
lol, the "unproductive people" are the privileged white demographic. You are getting engineers, doctors, professors, phd students on scholarships and affluent families as your immigrants, while you squander away your stimulus checks on 0dte plays.
But keep licking up to the right-wing nuts, who do everything possible to make your life difficult, ensure terrible wages, fuel up military industrial complex stealing funds from the most basic social support system and write corporations blank checks.
The irony, if you knew how to use that word, is not realising how you are exactly the lazy, privileged, misinformed idiot that is a product of a failing system.
goldenloi t1_jad6cu7 wrote
>You are getting engineers, doctors, professors, phd students on scholarships and affluent families as your immigrants
Only about half of US immigrants have graduated high school (or equivalent)
SufficientTowers t1_jad6a4j wrote
> You are getting engineers, doctors, professors
Tell me you know nothing about US immigration without telling me you know nothing about US immigration.
> the "unproductive people" are the privileged white demographic
The Left sure does a great job proving they are anti-racist people who care about the little guy....oh wait
>you are exactly the lazy, privileged, misinformed idiot
You got literally everything wrong. You are a white guy who has enough disposable income to mess with options trading.
The amount of irony here is palpable.
thepiguy17 t1_jae12y8 wrote
Jumping in way late to say I don’t think anyone in politics is looking out for the interest of common folks, immigrants or otherwise. It’s all a façade. Then we argue with our neighbors about who is right and who is wrong all day, while those fuckers collect paychecks from our taxes. The remainder then gets funneled to big business because we need privatized companies to help the government do its fucking job, and while they figure out who is going to get paid, they all shovel every dime they can into the market to collect a fat premium on the “work” they did for the American people.
Fuck ‘em. Seriously, both sides are just as corrupt, just as immoral, and just as bad in completely different ways. Congress, and all politically appointed representatives should make minimum wage and not be able to participate in anything other than buying ETFs or throwing shit into a savings account.
SufficientTowers t1_jae1hd7 wrote
Couldn't agree more. Government being a necessary evil that needs to be as impotent as possible seems to be the only valid take.
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