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billm0066 t1_ja8ir67 wrote

BuT THe MaRKetS GuNNa CRASH!!!!!

Lets put things into perspective.

2007 before the crash there were 4 million homes for sale

2023 there is less than 1 million

Real estate is not crashing this time. No arms, little inventory, good credit, low dti, tons of equity, low rates. 10% unemployment will barely make a dent to real estate. Dont bet against real estate. Buy when rates are high if you can afford it, and refi in a few years when rates come down. If rates come down below 5.5% real estate will take off again. This is the dip.

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deeplevitation t1_ja8zkab wrote

This is the comment to read - go read Warren Buffets comments in 2007/2008 about housing. It was an oversupply problem as much anything and paired with risky lending practices. We are not nearly in the same position today. I don’t believe prices were due for a slight correction, but what happened in 2007/08 will not happen again in the near future

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captiancb t1_ja9vsnm wrote

What the hell does Warren buffet know about real estate nothing

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jdmulloy t1_jabcrz7 wrote

He knew enough to stay away in the years prior to 2008. BH does have a resident realtor business, so he has some insights into how the market is doing. He's also explained that real estate investing isn't a good fit for him and BH because it's rarely mispriced at a discount like business/stocks are and BH has the wrong incorporation/tax structure for real estate ownership.

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captiancb t1_jabcyb4 wrote

If you think BH is still run by WB you’re a fool

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sidewaysrebel14 t1_jaac84y wrote

This is why fed will have to raise rates higher than people think. Inventory will come from job loses, not mortgage rates. Have to hike til there’s massive layoffs of homeowners in order to provide the necessary correction

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97soryva t1_jaau6fr wrote

Definitely not low DTI. DTI is higher than it’s been outside other bubble years (up like 33-40% over lows in ~2012-2015)

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jaa3l98 wrote

Inventory is up like 250% where I live YoY

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billm0066 t1_jaaqd03 wrote

From an all time low which still means a shortage of inventory. Every market is different but national numbers don’t lie.

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadl39p wrote

Inventory will come. It is coming. People are already panicking. You can seethe and cope all you want hope you got a solid deal if you bought last year

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OpWillDlvr t1_jaaxo81 wrote

YoY means nothing. Look at the "sane inventory" times of 2019 if you need a reference.

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadlmny wrote

YoY means everything wtf are you talking about lmao

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OpWillDlvr t1_jadluyi wrote

> YoY means everything wtf are you talking about lmao

YoY... is "year over year"... last year was not a "normal" year... wtf are you talking about?

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadp0p2 wrote

Its called a change in trend, regard. Doesn't mean we are making new highs right now. This is plainly obvious looking at the numbers. You can seethe and kick and scream all you want lol

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robbinhood69 t1_ja8szii wrote

So i mean the rate of M/M declines has been the fastest on record

and we are like just a little whee bit into the slow down

why would you think the DOWNies trend would be reversed ? thus far, inventory being low has meant diddly squat compared to higher financing costs and everyones 401k being DOWNie

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BillazeitfaGates t1_ja8pz5c wrote

It will obviously depend on location, but areas like the south that has room to sprawl and has been building like mad men, they will most certainly crash

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billm0066 t1_jaaqgkd wrote

I’m in the south and there is no room to build unless you move to the sticks.

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Hacking_the_Gibson t1_jabao4j wrote

The median home price has increased at a faster rate in the past two years than any time in the history of the data.

Home prices were flat from Q3 2016 through Q2 2020 when the printer got turned on full blast.

The only explanation is the printer. The printer has been off for a year, all that is left now is for the real estate sentiment to change when the job losses begin.

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Bluebirdx- t1_ja8kc9g wrote

What, there is a shitload more houses for sale you muppet

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Muze75 t1_ja8yv7p wrote

Did that just happen? Cause inventory has been low for months

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rp2012-blackthisout t1_ja93dp4 wrote

youre an idiot. everything that person just said is on point.

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OpWillDlvr t1_jaay16s wrote

Agreed. He is, and that guys comments are some of the most sane statements on the subject I've seen in a while.

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billm0066 t1_jaar2t2 wrote

Compared to all time lows which means STILL LOW INVENTORY.

Who the fuck is buying a house right now? My 225k house is now worth 500k and I have an $1100 month mortgage payment. An upgraded house means a $3500 a month mortgage payment or higher. Fuck that. I will never sell this house. I would rent it before ever consider selling it.

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jdmulloy t1_jabd39o wrote

Depending how much equity you have an how big of an upgrade you probably could get that payment lower than $3500. You'd have a big down payment selling the current house. Although if you have a nice rate that's a good incentive to stay put. Even going to a similarly priced house would increase your rate and cost.

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Bluebirdx- t1_jabo49j wrote

So what your saying is small amount home, nobody buying means basically there’s tons of homes

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