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BillazeitfaGates t1_ja8ppdd wrote

sales still down 22.4% from 2022

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CalyShadezz t1_ja8tva7 wrote

Also it is peak buying season. These posts are so fucking dumb, everyone just expects a crash to go straight down.

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Hascus t1_jaa6q09 wrote

It is not peak buying season moron it’s not even spring

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Eco_guru t1_jab9mnk wrote

You’re fucking dumb if you think January and February is peak buying season lmao

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Ragefan66 t1_jabi9u9 wrote

He just wanted to act confident while having no idea what he's talking about.

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True Redditor energy.

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victoryboii t1_jab11kj wrote

Peak buying season checks month ahh yes the notorious February craze

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Ragefan66 t1_jabi5vi wrote

I love how this idiot confidently says that JAN is peak buying season and another guy comes in with proof showing that it's literally the lowest fucking volume month every single year for home purchases lmao.

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Absolute peak Reddit moment.

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neldalover1987 t1_jacisuw wrote

You can tell they are an expert on the subject by how confident they are

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_aliased t1_ja9guzc wrote

nah just the rebubble boys expecting a crash

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neldalover1987 t1_jacimb4 wrote

Peak buying season in February? Nah. Peak buying season is summer time.

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YellowCBR t1_ja8imoj wrote

The price cuts I've seen on new construction in my area is insane, like -20% in one fell swoop.

But the original asking prices were insane as well.

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5kyl3r t1_ja91yj3 wrote

damn, i was gonna pay my house off this year but maybe i should build instead 🧐

but i'm lazy and moving is the worse so probably not gonna do diddly squat

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TwoNine13 t1_ja9rgig wrote

Just moved. Can confirm it still sucks as much as the last time

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5kyl3r t1_jaavwf4 wrote

yeah i keep downsizing and throwing crap out but it still seems to get worse with each move. i think there might be something to those minimalist travel vlogger people that don't own anything

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TwoNine13 t1_jab3eoq wrote

I have Starlink now and I’ve shit in a bucket because of broken plumbing in the last year so I guess sign me the fuck up.

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Desperate_for_Bacon t1_jab699k wrote

Wait people don’t normally shit in buckets?

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TwoNine13 t1_jab986k wrote

Depends on the state of the wood product used for the house. Lumber form, toilet. Cardboard, bucket. Both get the job done. I’ll let you decide if I was shitting in my cardboard house or my stick house

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captiancb t1_ja9v578 wrote

Doing nothing is normally the best course of action

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readonlypdf t1_ja8glog wrote

Run roh.

75 basis points incoming

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cbusoh66 OP t1_ja8g7ng wrote

Yep, those Fed hikes are really working and housing has really slowed down. /s

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OneFly1035 t1_ja8i1lb wrote

Housing prices near me went from around 400k to 375k. Rent went from around 2000 to 3200 lol

Rates are currently making housing significantly more expensive

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Mariom2 t1_ja8rr4k wrote

It’s unsustainable for those people that had ARMs and those who were hit with big property tax influxes. Something has to break and it’s not going to be the interest rates or renters IMO.

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OneFly1035 t1_ja8s460 wrote

The ARM crisis will be in 5 years from now if rates are still high. I doubt many people had ARMs prior because rates were extremely low for a long period of times. Even those that did the ARMs now are capped at maximum rises total and per period.

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rp2012-blackthisout t1_ja938nb wrote

no one is on ARMs vs '08.

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throwitawayCrypto t1_ja941lp wrote

I need the next MB to come out of the woodwork and do the math on this bc I have no idea how to get that data but it’s definitely in the works

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rp2012-blackthisout t1_ja9fkmz wrote

In mid-2022, adjustable-rate mortgages made up nearly 10% of all new home loan applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

In 2000 it was 30%, in 2005 it was 35%.

But to help your case, in 2015 it was 5%. So yes, we're way off the highs and lows of ARMs.

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lost_in_life_34 t1_ja9h5rz wrote

towards the end of the 2008 bubble no one really had ARM's cause they couldn't afford them.

​

they had interest only 1 year loans that were no income of documentation verification

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007baldy t1_ja8yngs wrote

Plus if they do the 5/1 or 7/1 arms, rates should be dropping in those time periods and they won't even be into the rate adjustment period before they can refinance at a lower fixed rate.

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lost_in_life_34 t1_ja9gvw1 wrote

northern NJ the house across the street just sold for $50,000 over asking. it's zoned for one of the best high schools in the country

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Neither_Strength2583 t1_ja9aisn wrote

Builders are offering to buy points down for buyers as part of the incentives to sell.

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Potato_Octopi t1_jaalzdd wrote

Mortgage rates came down over the past few months, and prices have come down a bit too.

Demand is still down quite a bit though.

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No_Zookeepergame_27 t1_jab40dr wrote

These pending home sales were made in January when mortgage rates dropped to 6%. Things have slowed down again now mortgage rates are near 7%.

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rippedmalenurse t1_jac5d2r wrote

Was quoted 7.2% last week, my credit score is 820 so it’s not that, interest rates and houses at these prices just aren’t affordable, and I make 6 figures :/

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Mr_Strol t1_jacgx1b wrote

You make six figures and frequent a finance sub… why didn’t you buy last year?

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rippedmalenurse t1_jacketi wrote

I have a house already, was looking to move possibly. My rate is 2.8 though so just going to hold off.

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billm0066 t1_ja8ir67 wrote

BuT THe MaRKetS GuNNa CRASH!!!!!

Lets put things into perspective.

2007 before the crash there were 4 million homes for sale

2023 there is less than 1 million

Real estate is not crashing this time. No arms, little inventory, good credit, low dti, tons of equity, low rates. 10% unemployment will barely make a dent to real estate. Dont bet against real estate. Buy when rates are high if you can afford it, and refi in a few years when rates come down. If rates come down below 5.5% real estate will take off again. This is the dip.

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deeplevitation t1_ja8zkab wrote

This is the comment to read - go read Warren Buffets comments in 2007/2008 about housing. It was an oversupply problem as much anything and paired with risky lending practices. We are not nearly in the same position today. I don’t believe prices were due for a slight correction, but what happened in 2007/08 will not happen again in the near future

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captiancb t1_ja9vsnm wrote

What the hell does Warren buffet know about real estate nothing

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jdmulloy t1_jabcrz7 wrote

He knew enough to stay away in the years prior to 2008. BH does have a resident realtor business, so he has some insights into how the market is doing. He's also explained that real estate investing isn't a good fit for him and BH because it's rarely mispriced at a discount like business/stocks are and BH has the wrong incorporation/tax structure for real estate ownership.

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captiancb t1_jabcyb4 wrote

If you think BH is still run by WB you’re a fool

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sidewaysrebel14 t1_jaac84y wrote

This is why fed will have to raise rates higher than people think. Inventory will come from job loses, not mortgage rates. Have to hike til there’s massive layoffs of homeowners in order to provide the necessary correction

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97soryva t1_jaau6fr wrote

Definitely not low DTI. DTI is higher than it’s been outside other bubble years (up like 33-40% over lows in ~2012-2015)

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jaa3l98 wrote

Inventory is up like 250% where I live YoY

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billm0066 t1_jaaqd03 wrote

From an all time low which still means a shortage of inventory. Every market is different but national numbers don’t lie.

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadl39p wrote

Inventory will come. It is coming. People are already panicking. You can seethe and cope all you want hope you got a solid deal if you bought last year

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OpWillDlvr t1_jaaxo81 wrote

YoY means nothing. Look at the "sane inventory" times of 2019 if you need a reference.

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadlmny wrote

YoY means everything wtf are you talking about lmao

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OpWillDlvr t1_jadluyi wrote

> YoY means everything wtf are you talking about lmao

YoY... is "year over year"... last year was not a "normal" year... wtf are you talking about?

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadp0p2 wrote

Its called a change in trend, regard. Doesn't mean we are making new highs right now. This is plainly obvious looking at the numbers. You can seethe and kick and scream all you want lol

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robbinhood69 t1_ja8szii wrote

So i mean the rate of M/M declines has been the fastest on record

and we are like just a little whee bit into the slow down

why would you think the DOWNies trend would be reversed ? thus far, inventory being low has meant diddly squat compared to higher financing costs and everyones 401k being DOWNie

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BillazeitfaGates t1_ja8pz5c wrote

It will obviously depend on location, but areas like the south that has room to sprawl and has been building like mad men, they will most certainly crash

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billm0066 t1_jaaqgkd wrote

I’m in the south and there is no room to build unless you move to the sticks.

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Hacking_the_Gibson t1_jabao4j wrote

The median home price has increased at a faster rate in the past two years than any time in the history of the data.

Home prices were flat from Q3 2016 through Q2 2020 when the printer got turned on full blast.

The only explanation is the printer. The printer has been off for a year, all that is left now is for the real estate sentiment to change when the job losses begin.

0

Bluebirdx- t1_ja8kc9g wrote

What, there is a shitload more houses for sale you muppet

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Muze75 t1_ja8yv7p wrote

Did that just happen? Cause inventory has been low for months

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rp2012-blackthisout t1_ja93dp4 wrote

youre an idiot. everything that person just said is on point.

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OpWillDlvr t1_jaay16s wrote

Agreed. He is, and that guys comments are some of the most sane statements on the subject I've seen in a while.

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billm0066 t1_jaar2t2 wrote

Compared to all time lows which means STILL LOW INVENTORY.

Who the fuck is buying a house right now? My 225k house is now worth 500k and I have an $1100 month mortgage payment. An upgraded house means a $3500 a month mortgage payment or higher. Fuck that. I will never sell this house. I would rent it before ever consider selling it.

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jdmulloy t1_jabd39o wrote

Depending how much equity you have an how big of an upgrade you probably could get that payment lower than $3500. You'd have a big down payment selling the current house. Although if you have a nice rate that's a good incentive to stay put. Even going to a similarly priced house would increase your rate and cost.

0

Bluebirdx- t1_jabo49j wrote

So what your saying is small amount home, nobody buying means basically there’s tons of homes

0

theineffablebob t1_jaac8xu wrote

This is a major sign that inflation is still roaring

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bearofwsb t1_jaafsyg wrote

It’s probably the stock market rally that triggered this. I personally know three people who were waiting for their stocks to come back to their cost basis, before making the move. Those stocks positions could be liquidated to afford the down payment and a couple years of difference between monthly payments and paycheck.

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SteamCleaner23 t1_jaatc6w wrote

Pay still the same but somehow we all can afford higher priced homes than 3 years ago and double the interest rates while a Big Mac meal now goes for $16. Something going to give.

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gaurav0792 t1_jaat9zl wrote

I don't get it. Why did the Fed buy a shit ton of MBS and pump housing along with QE ?

Housing was already hot. What the fuck JEROME ?

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PotatoWriter t1_jabl7a7 wrote

Because it ends up with more $$$ pooled up to the top. That's the entire game since the beginning of time. Accumulate wealth at the top. Pull rug from everyone else, rinse repeat.

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Invest0rnoob1 t1_jabpc65 wrote

Can’t let the poors have too much. It causes inflation.

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rpnye523 t1_jaao3r2 wrote

This isn’t automatically signaling a bottom, people could very well be accepting less attractive offers out of fear of the market crashing

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Best_Of_The_Midwest t1_jadmbju wrote

Yes but it's interest rates. Buying power is down. This article is based on lagging data

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Theta_Ome t1_jab7b33 wrote

The headlines over the past week are so ALL OVER the place that I assume bankers are having mental break downs.

But I for sure know that none of them know what the heck is going on.

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on_Jah_Jahmen t1_jabcycv wrote

1 raise rates 2. Growth companies and tech begin to cut spending 3. Less spending affects associated businesses 4. Businesses start cutting jobs due to slowdowns 5. People lose jobs 6. People try to look for new jobs and sell off nonessential assets while savings deplete 7. People sell their homes

We’re at like step 2, americans still have money and jobs still are easily obtainable. Also after a few years, homes sold due to divorce, employment changes, family issues, deaths etc especially since single family homes are generally bought by couples and not individuals.

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I_Am_Graydon t1_jacb8ws wrote

Lol poors hoping they will be able to buy our houses cheap 😂

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Tonka111 t1_ja8n21n wrote

Sales/Repo's, easy typo.

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PleaseCaIIMeSir t1_jab3wfj wrote

Where I live, you can’t even find the size of my house (1100 sq feet) and the lot it sits on for less than 1.6. I got it 2 years ago at 1.2. Some areas are still roaring.

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Wanna_Runn t1_jabq7nn wrote

Probably all in Florida... Smfh

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GandalfsGoon t1_jacha2c wrote

Lock in those rates before they go even higher

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EatsRats t1_jacjksv wrote

OP’s portfolio surges 8.1% [after being down 78%].

2

backruptcyfomo t1_jacp0tp wrote

Most regards bought their house and think they can refinance in a year or two. img

2

VisualMod t1_ja8fzxd wrote

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1

throwawayamd14 t1_ja8q6ve wrote

The fed continues to fuck housing prices

0

captiancb t1_ja9vj6y wrote

Not really it’s still kinda inflated the only thing the fed managed to do is fuck up mid to small cap tech stocks

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Hacking_the_Gibson t1_jabavfv wrote

Lol, Google, Amazon, and Meta would like a word.

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captiancb t1_jabd2hk wrote

A small percentage of large cap stocks that got hit but the broader large cap market has yet to take a massive hit

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VegetableSolid6767 t1_jacewp9 wrote

When your country lets in so many illegal immigrants, they’ll have to live somewhere. I’m sure that has a large role in the number.

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