Most Bearish Stocks and the Cheapest Puts

Submitted by mytendies t3_11ed3ul in wallstreetbets

Most Bearish

These stocks and put options are the most directionaly bearish. Directional bias ranges from -100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish). It accounts for RSI, trend, moving averages and put/call skew over the past 4 weeks. Fade the recent bearish action by selling high premium puts or get long with puts with low put premiums.

stock put_iv directional_bias historical_move priced_down_move price_effeciency put_premium
PXD 39.0 -56.0 23.61 22.95 69.31 -0.66
U 81.0 -44.0 68.37 47.67 8.54 -20.70
W 88.0 -42.0 80.14 51.79 12.13 -28.35
DVN 41.0 -36.0 31.29 24.13 7.36 -7.16
STX 40.0 -32.0 20.07 23.54 18.63 3.47
HD 27.0 -30.0 20.66 15.89 8.07 -4.77
KO 18.0 -29.0 8.14 10.59 14.99 2.45
BABA 46.0 -29.0 22.13 27.07 8.25 4.94
MO 25.0 -25.0 14.96 14.71 20.31 -0.25
XLE 31.0 -24.0 16.37 18.24 10.00 1.87
XLE 31.0 -24.0 16.37 18.24 9.62 1.87
NEM 35.0 -24.0 18.80 20.60 14.53 1.80
QCOM 36.0 -20.0 18.33 21.19 6.88 2.86
PEP 18.0 -20.0 8.09 10.59 21.75 2.50

Cheap Puts

These put options offer the lowest ratio of bearish premium paid (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move down significantly less than it has moved down in the past. Buy these puts.

stock put_iv directional_bias historical_move priced_down_move price_effeciency put_premium
TTD 56.0 15.0 72.30 32.95 12.52 -39.35
W 88.0 -42.0 80.14 51.79 12.13 -28.35
RBLX 67.0 2.0 62.47 39.43 10.60 -23.04
U 81.0 -44.0 68.37 47.67 8.54 -20.70
COIN 109.0 4.0 82.38 64.14 6.72 -18.24
BAX 26.0 12.0 30.94 15.30 40.40 -15.64
ROKU 68.0 11.0 53.87 40.02 7.26 -13.85
ABNB 45.0 1.0 39.79 26.48 10.46 -13.31
GOOGL 32.0 -7.0 30.19 18.83 4.54 -11.36
GOOG 32.0 -10.0 29.93 18.83 15.36 -11.10
NVDA 52.0 11.0 41.20 30.60 2.48 -10.60
EA 21.0 2.0 22.49 12.36 18.33 -10.13
DASH 62.0 -19.0 46.28 36.49 10.04 -9.79
TWLO 60.0 12.0 44.52 35.31 8.77 -9.21
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Comments

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Kenz0Cree t1_jadbkfc wrote

Wow I havent seen a post like this in a long time. Good stuff thanks

70

ItsNotYourFault t1_jadkqrv wrote

Post reinstated. Thanks for being a good sport.

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mytendies OP t1_jadl31a wrote

coo coo thanks. Should I use different flair for this? Other users told me it is not considered DD

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B3stAuD1t0rofA11tiME t1_jae1g2g wrote

Can you do the same with calls? That would be great.

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mytendies OP t1_jae5vk0 wrote

hold my bear. Will post it in about 10 mins after this report runs

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mold_motel t1_jae7z22 wrote

What's the riskiest play here? I'm in.

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mytendies OP t1_jae8h1k wrote

Puts on W, 4 weeks out. Or TTD

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tytus_bomba t1_jaelsa3 wrote

What's the safest play then? Also, does it apply to buying shares? My mom doesn't allow me to play with my... options.

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mytendies OP t1_jaem7kq wrote

You could use the "directional_bias" column to make choices on stocks, but this is 90% focused on option pricing (volatility).

​

Safest play: sell the most "expensive" options, out of the money, and let them decay to 0.

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monkman99 t1_jaezacg wrote

Your buy these calls and buy these puts list has a lot the same names in the list.

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mytendies OP t1_jaezvcv wrote

Because likely calls and puts are cheap relative to some big moves in the past 4 weeks (on those tickers)

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mytendies OP t1_jaezyv8 wrote

Buy the at the money call and the at the money put would be the conclusion

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DiamondDustVIII t1_jae3sxg wrote

Good stuff, been waiting to see more of these.

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mytendies OP t1_jae5msu wrote

I am trying... been stuck doing boring things past 30-40 days, but back on the grind now. Will keep posting if helpful! LMK if there is anything else that would make these more useful

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selipso t1_jaes7ea wrote

How is U both the most bearish and has the cheapest puts? Maybe everything is not priced in 🧐?

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mytendies OP t1_jaevged wrote

There in lies the insight which might make it a good trade.

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BadWoodworking t1_jaduus4 wrote

What am I looking at lol

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mytendies OP t1_jae05uf wrote

not trying to be an ass, but I get so confused by people's reaction to it. Can you honestly just read the sentences above each table and see if your confusion is resolved?
If you are still confused, let me know and I will explain it in a different way.

In short: the most bearish stocks (table one) and the cheapest puts (second table)

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BadWoodworking t1_jae1iad wrote

I tried but don’t understand the column headers.

Cheapest puts but how far out are you looking at.

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mytendies OP t1_jae5szn wrote

"4 weeks out" as indicated in the first two sentences.

Fair point on the column headers, I need to explain that shit better on the next one.

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ldecline t1_jaefnm3 wrote

4 weeks out... Are you from the future?

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mytendies OP t1_jaelwny wrote

IV represents future expectations of price movement. I just compare that to past realized price movements.

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