DesmondMilesDant OP t1_j9ijx1s wrote on February 22, 2023 at 5:33 AM

Reply to comment by Moist_Lunch_5075 in Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market? by DesmondMilesDant

Wow 20yrs. I cannot even imagine the craziness you went through dotcom when Erp went below 0 towards negative.

And yes i agree. Market can remain irrational. I thought the top in SPX was done around $4k back in Nov. But god it went sideways and then to $4.2k. Lot of my friends who trusted on my Jan high Vix got rekt coz they had puts not etfs like me. I still feel sad because of it.

And yah you're right. Ukraine war just dragged the inflation higher due to supply shocks. Otherwise fed funds of 3.4% would have been sufficient enough with QT. Enter Zoltan pozsar. Had i not come across his newsletters about structural inflation due to multipolar world i would have been left holding bonds. He was the only one suggested back in summer that we need fed funds at 5-6% and mortgage loans 9-10% and hold them for entirety of 2023.

Just like you, i did research as well back in summer. I was putting like over 10+hrs and learning all sorts of stuff. Everything was new to me at that time considering i had no economic background. I had to learn from watching podcasts and interviews heck even news and process how can i use this or that. And then every single sat-sun with a can of beer i was writing these crazy eternity long letters so that later i can come back and check what was my thought process.

And yah i totally get why you thought SPX $3200 looked more likely at that time around in sept-oct.

So yes i kinda get what you're trying to teach me. There's a high possibility that $3200 aka Q1 disaster does not happen and we could pretty much rally up here. So like whats my backup plan in case this doesn't play out. But i am being arrogant like nah no back up. It's like knowing there's a possibility you're car could end up in accident somewhere in the future but still not trying to get a car insurance.

Tbh i don't know what to do. I will think about it and write such newsletter.

So thank you for educating me and giving your precious time. And yes this was all helpful sir. 😃

Have a great week!

p.s. Why do i feel like i had this conversation with you before or maybe its just a Dejavu.

Moist_Lunch_5075 t1_j9lw22o wrote on February 22, 2023 at 10:30 PM

I think we've had this convo before but I feel like this one was more productive. I don't remember specifics from before, but now is what matters hehe.

Yeah, this game is hard. We can all learn from each other with an open mind.

Let me know what you come up with for an alternate plan. It can result in cognitive dissonance to plan both sides, but the stress is a LOT less when you have an exit plan.

The trick is to put enough risk on the table so that you don't get shaken out easily, but that's a process that people have to go through to find their own appetite for risk. If you just want to put everything on the table and say "down or bust," cool... but just be aware that "bust" is a real possibility. LOL

It's really about being honest about the risks that we're taking.

And my advice is to be critical and check everything. Including what I say. Don't trust ANYONE in the market. Everyone's playing their own game.

You're a good dude, and I appreciate this conversation and your honesty.

Have a great weekend!