Halforthechump t1_je8v48t wrote on March 30, 2023 at 7:06 AM

The reason the big chunguses put money in FRC was to stop the spread of fear, it's not because they think FRC is a really good place to put money, it's because they were shit scared of the domino effect harming their businesses and the broader economic merry-go-round.

Having said that - every fucker here should be having a punt in FRC, it's value dropped 10x and that alone is reason enough for the degenerates to gamble on it going up. I've got a small bullish bet on FRC, not because I have any reasonable expectation it'll pay off but because my lizards brain is saying ' it went down loads and so will go up loads '.

PussyBreath007 OP t1_je9gl3t wrote on March 30, 2023 at 11:52 AM

The big chunguses had and have zero incentive to stop the spread of REGIONAL BANK fear. The prevailing narrative has overwhelmingly been - move your money to big banks for safety. The JPMs and BofAs would gladly take all of FRC’s clients overnight. I can’t say for certain FRC is going to recover (although I think they’re already on their way) but the big banks definitely did not invest $30B into FRC for the reason you are stating. In fact, it’s just the opposite. They see FRC is a very low risk, easy return while they inevitably recover over the next 6-12 months. You’ll see FRC skyrocket at earnings on 4/13 after it’s revealed their balance sheet is fine… my two cents

Halforthechump t1_je9io6n wrote on March 30, 2023 at 12:12 PM

My man credit Suisse was on the brink of collapse and is considered a vital cog in international banking. Contagion threat was through the roof. These regional banks had hundreds of billions of dollars under management, FRC and svb were boutique tech bro banks, not some farmers Union Bank servicing a few towns. The entire banking system is so intertwined that the ripple turns into a tsunami in days, which is exactly what happened. JPM aren't thinking ' oh boy I'm gonna get $10b in deposits if FRC collapses', they're thinking ' oh fuck this is snowballing like 2008 and we're long in far, far too many vulnerable positions to get out of it in the positive '.

The banks didn't invest anything in FRC, they deposited $30b, for a year, to stop it fucking collapsing from a cascade of deposit withdrawals.

I've said I'm long on FRC but it's purely a contrary play. This is a bank that had a major liquidity crisis because it lost shit tons of deposits.

PussyBreath007 OP t1_je9m6eo wrote on March 30, 2023 at 12:43 PM

I fundamentally disagree with you. I stand by my assertion that big banks would have no problem with many regional banks going under. In fact, a banking system where even more money was centralized with a dozen big banks would be their ultimate preference. I don’t believe the biggest banks deposited $30B to prevent regional bank failure contagion. Not at all. They have a different relationship with FRC, clearly.