Timing is difficult to pin down, but a fairly difficult recession is baked in the cake at this point. Love how the goal posts have moved from “soft/no landing” to “shallow recession”.

I don't think it will unless something drastic happens. I get the feeling like this is a unique situation in that the largest generation in history just jumped out of the workforce, but they are still alive and consume the same. So while the amount of net work required hasn't changed, there are no longer enough people to do it, who are now demanding more money. So inflation is rising, but unemployment is not going down because it literally can't unless the amount of work required to run society gets whittled down to the bare bones of what the current workforce can handle based on their numbers.

There are only 2 solutions I see. First, that the FED kills all unnecessary/unprofitable work via interest rates and a lot of people have to downgrade their job functions or just not work, which could last 20 years or longer based on the fact that lots of people have been deciding to not have kids. Second option is that AI rides in to save the day. That 300 million jobs affected figure should be viewed as a godsend, not a doomsday predictor. Countries should be dumping funding in to AI or it is going to get real bad for the kids currently being born.