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VisualMod t1_jedpiip wrote

The market may not make sense to you, but that doesn't mean it's not efficient. The fact is that all macroeconomic information is reflected in asset prices, so even if the Fed raises rates by 25bps, it won't have a significant impact on the markets.


scribbyshollow t1_jee4cw6 wrote

oh it makes perfect sense when you factor in crime and authority bodies meant to police it being corrupt


EconHuman t1_jee9mx7 wrote

I think we need to add another category. Around an IQ of ~40 there are the people who think everything is rigged and the market makers prey on retail.


FelipeKbcao t1_jeebxqn wrote

Wisest thing ever posted in this sub and it gets like 160 upvotes. Perfect.


Pengufen t1_jeefat4 wrote

That's just something people like Jim Cramer say: "The market is fOrWarD lOOkInG" oOOOoH. They aren't, plain and simple. 2 banks crash and the market goes into a frenzy, one week later it's booming and doesn't care whatsoever about what just happened. Just look a chart of spy before and during 2008, the market didn't start falling until the grim reaper was staring them in the face and no one could deny crisis was upon us.


New-Work-139 t1_jeefqfz wrote

The markets probably do make sense, there are just so many constantly changing input variables that we just don’t possess the capacity to actually make sense of it.


xxpatrixxx t1_jeei0o1 wrote

Tbh honest sometimes I wish I was regarded so I could find at least some kind of logic to this regarded market.


RecommendationNo3531 t1_jeeir7c wrote

When you can’t beat the wave just ride with it. Sooner you stop complaining and start complying, things will start to make sense. Otherwise just get the fuck out and don’t gamble anymore.


Andire t1_jeem27d wrote

Efficient Market Hypothesis is at odds with Behavioral Economics, where people are absolutely not making well informed and maximally efficient decisions. Just look around for a bit. Not all retail traders yolo calls for the up boats, but there's plenty who buy Tesla thinking it's a good company, when in reality their balance sheets have always been dog shit.


d3st1n3d t1_jeeoxiz wrote

Uncertain of which side of the "doesn't make sense" bell curve I'm on 🤔


quangdn295 t1_jeeq9k7 wrote

When the market make no sense to the expert and analyst, it mean there is either fraud or we all going to be fucked, big time.


Etheralto t1_jeetb2j wrote

The market makes no sense. I just buy calls in uptrend and puts in downtrends to collect free money regardless. The rest is noise.


Old-Writing-916 t1_jeetzwl wrote

The markets don't make sense because people's emotions tend to over compensate to the point of irrational behavior.


CCPCanuck t1_jeeyjmx wrote

This meme perfectly encapsulates the entirety of commentary on bloomberg this week.


filippovitale t1_jef1n61 wrote

>Nothing makes sense here, man.
The only thing that does make sense,
is that nothing makes sense. –– Korg


AnkalaevWillBeTop5 t1_jef3xkx wrote

This deep and elusive logic you dumdums are looking for is literally just:

printer go brrrr, stock market go up

People who say anything more complex than this are literally the modern versions of witch doctors trying to convince you of some bullshit.

“But what about bank uncertainty or less available cash or bond yields or blah blah blah.”

Shut up nerd. Throw your money in stocks.

“But we’ve been kicking the can down the road. Debt is too high. The fed can’t service it. They can’t print money forever. Higher rates. Ron Paul said…”

Shut up nerd. Throw your money in stocks

There, I have cleared everything up for you and taught you the market. You’re welcome.


kenbmw623 t1_jef6s0k wrote

You must BECOME the market. Make no sense in your buying and selling until net worth is 7 figures. Thank me later, I am in the .1% 8)


Revil0_o t1_jef88gk wrote

If people who study it can't get it right that means it's all going to be fine


NoobCinema75SGF t1_jefagf2 wrote

No idea if I'm far left, or far right. But this fucking market makes no sense.


Ayy_boi3 t1_jefdzpb wrote

Logic is: Market was in uptrend entire year, bank crisis fucked it, bank crisis wasn't real, it was just SVB poor management, deposits are returning, fed loans are being returned, market reverses the loss, bears threw life savings into puts for some reason, short squeeze. Bulls realize the strength of this market, they don't want to be left behind because market is already down -20% from the highs so it's not a bad buying oppurtunity anyways.


MmmPeopleBacon t1_jefe1kf wrote

Left I don't understand and I don't even know why I don't understand.

Middle, I learned a thing and think I understand but I don't know what underlying assumptions are and why I should care about them because I know a thing.

Right I don't understand but I know why I don't understand.


Sweaty_Bird481 t1_jefe5yj wrote

The rich psychopath fears the homeless skitzo, for only he knows the truth behind the wealthy man's power.


MmmPeopleBacon t1_jeff2bg wrote

You seem to know how to write and maybe even read. Should probably work on your reading comprehension though. And I think Jim Cramer is as big of an idiot as the next guy but in this instance you are truly regarded.

When people say markets are forward looking what they mean is that they try to predict tomorrow's profits based on past and present information. A bank collapse represents new information that wasn't available previously. It takes a while for that information to fully work it's way through the market because it requires new analysis.


georgespeaches t1_jefnccc wrote

The efficient market idea is regarded. People are terrible about pricing things in, massive information asymmetries, plus irrational behavior and plain stupidity


jcodes57 t1_jefrxoq wrote

“Tripe skippidy poo papa inverted cosen quadruple backflip”. Nice


Trotter823 t1_jeft7jz wrote

Ben Graham (famous beta male investor) talked about this in terms of personification calling the market Mr. Market. He said sometimes Mr. Market feels great and has tons of energy and goes way way up. And sometimes Mr. Market feels sad and low and goes way down. Over time the feelings trend logically but day to day or even month to month they make no sense.

Now idk about that regarded shit I just said but I think Ben was trying to explain his cocaine habit to someone when he wrote this.


samnater t1_jeftuz7 wrote

The market makes sense. It’s purpose is to take money from one set of people and give it to another. Kind of like taxes!


Shanknado t1_jefx4t4 wrote

If the market was truly forward-looking, nobody would sell.


MmmPeopleBacon t1_jefyuij wrote

You're a dumbass. Any model will have a range of assumptions a good model will account to solve extent for those assumptions changing. However if a new event happens they alters the likely range of those assumptions then updates need to be made.


iggyphi t1_jefz989 wrote

im the dumbass but you can't think two steps infront you that other people might of already thought of variable. like someone almost gets paid to come up with all the different variables and solutions to them so that its ready for when it happens


Bellec32 t1_jegc4al wrote

The best way to explain the market is WH40k orks. It works because we (the orks) believe it works, and it doesn't work when we don't believe in it. We need a financial WAAGH to start a bull run.


dirch30 t1_jegqlxw wrote

Some things make perfect sense though.

Like the FED raising interest rates and the economy contracting because of it...


Rd21Bn t1_jegs5eb wrote

hahah look, a blue penis