Went long QQQ calls today. I feel very dirty.

Submitted by mrnotadvice t3_1273jda in wallstreetbets

I had to hold my nose and buy some QQQ calls. The world cental banks injected $1 Trillion in liquidity and if I have learned something over the decades of trading, do not fight the Fed. While I am confidant that the world is not saved, as is evident from my CRE post, I also remember 2008 when Bear Stearns went belly up in March but it took the summer and part of the Fall until Lehman went under. Of course, the DOJ also sued two of Bear's hedge funds in August so that helped. The chance of the DOJ suing any investment bank or bank this time around is 1%. I mean, they just backstopped them, again.

Other contributing factors to my QQQ long position:

  1. Hedge Funds and CTA's are still overwhelmingly bearish according to multiple reports from Government Sachs, the devil (JPM) and others.
  2. QQQ is in a technical bull market now. I don't argue with charts.
  3. There's still that $1 trillion I mentioned up above that is supposed to stabilize deposit bases. And after 2008 the largest banks who received their bailouts, promised to lend that money out. They didn't - they put it in risk assets - stocks. But sure, this time they will do as they say.
  4. Hedgies are short overwhelmingly, to the tune of $28 billion SPX futures that they need to cover in April.
  5. Seasonality as shown by the attached graphic.
  6. Perfect conditions for a short squeeze on the NDX which is nowhere near overbought.

HOWEVER, there are just as many worrisome data points:

  1. Since Dec 28, 50% of the gain in NDX has been from 5 stocks NVDA, AAPL, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA META. Sorry, that's very. See #2
  2. From the graphic, earnings are now expected to drop 12% yoy from last year. Not good if you are a fundamental investor.
  3. There WILL be more bad news from the banking sector. Might be a private HF or private REIT, but this is a no brainer.
  4. The Fed apparently only really wanted to get the market through the end of this quarter bc how much news have you heard from them about regulatory enforcement? NONE. Why? Because if they hadn't, can you freaking imagine what some of these large banks would be reporting.
  5. EOQ is the time for mutual funds and all to "paint the tape." They sell the stocks that have rec'd bad press (banks) and buy the stocks that have rec'd good press (NVDA et al.) Translation: HF chasing over the last 3 weeks has led to the NDX advance which has held the SPX up.
  6. If the tech sector is so hot, then why have so many LARGE layoffs been announced? And the layoffs are broad: META -11,000; GOOGL - 12,0000; AMZN-distribution labor - 9000; Indeed - 2200 - uhm, job search site, WMT-layoffs from warehouse to distribution. And then the one I think is hilarious are the 1400 from McKinsey and Co -who are usually the ones doing the layoffs.

BTW, perhaps the easiest metric to use to know if the NDX run is over? AAPL. Pull up a chart. Lately its been leading the market.

Finally, despite being "forced" into a long QQQ position, I also put on a long VIX position today. I mean, cmon - look at the daily chart.

I hate it, I think its a joke, but I will not fight the Fed. I hope the market elevates so I can get short at higher levels. I remain short CMBS, COIN, and CLX. Long VIX and other "story" plays.

Thanks.

https://preview.redd.it/xeg3atxnyyqa1.png?width=365&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c455501812c156a853a25564a7c589172b9f1fc3

https://preview.redd.it/t81y6txnyyqa1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=a728a0c4381e5c52672a2e5392dd0907a042846e

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Comments

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pintord t1_jecds6a wrote

SQQQ to the moon!

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[deleted] t1_jedypyy wrote

[deleted]

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeexyyh wrote

you have BIG ballz. Or SMALL brain. I hope its the former. I like when people make money.

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Skiporflip t1_jecm25s wrote

I don’t know shit and started trading options the beginning of march and made easy money off calls and puts. But I fought the fed and bought puts and have lost all of my gains. Now I’m watching those puts cost me 300-700 a day

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jecui51 wrote

I don't know your strategy etc. but I can tell you that my average hold is 10days with an average return of at least 50%. And no, I am not shitting you. I have posted some of my trades here but if you want to actually learn, join my subreddit. It;s just a group of us who trade and don't really have time for about 90% of the garbage replies here. We can chat there but you can also see my trade sheets - I have to update since I closed three more today. One was for +85% in 2 days. Others were +56% in 1 day and +41% in 12 days.

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HouseofPremyslid t1_jegp8nc wrote

Wow! Another master trader who just likes to hang out and help rubes I mean noobs for free.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jegunr9 wrote

Only the ones who aren't ass hats. Which are you?

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HouseofPremyslid t1_jegvcne wrote

I'm all out of bubblegum

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jegwzbr wrote

I don't understand that comment but here's some free advice - criticizing people is the surest way to miss opportunities. Not everyone on Reddit is a shill. Before you open your mouth with a comment just bc you want to show people how funny you are, perhaps you could try something different. I'm inviting you to take the time to peruse my trades just over the past couple of weeks. Might take you 15 minutes. If you still think at that point I am a fraud, fine by me. But what if I am not? Are 15 minutes worth your time?

So you have a choice right now - respond with another stupid comment or "waste" 15 minutes of your time. Either way, it will have no affect on me or my profits. I hope you take the 15 minutes. Thanks.

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HouseofPremyslid t1_jegyibj wrote

I know this scam. You have two accounts you've take both sides of the trades. Look! This account is successful. Wow!

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeh0nsf wrote

Well I tried. I guess you really can’t fix stupid. Aaaaaannnnd your blocked.

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wagman551 t1_jecfqch wrote

Thanks OP, I needed a catalyst to make my 100 SQQQ 3/31 31.50's rip

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grimkhor t1_jecnvaq wrote

Wtf you doing with your nose? Grab your ballz and buy some calls.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jecp7kd wrote

haha. Well I still have plenty of long calls.

Sold my long calls today:

  • EA (+45%-7days)
  • DAL (+57% - 1 day)
  • NU (85% - 2 days)

I still need to add some more long positions.

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ClassyPenguin23 t1_jed243j wrote

What were your DAL positions? Been holding 9/15 38c and 40c for a couple days. Decent returns (approx 40%), but debating on dropping them in the morning.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jed3bvb wrote

I had the may 37 calls. Sold this morning for .82. Bought yesterday for .53. Triggered off a technical setup. I make 50% in a day and I’m out. Time risk and theta are not worth it.

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ClassyPenguin23 t1_jede6cg wrote

Fair enough - thanks for the info. Keep it up!

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeegji4 wrote

check out my subreddit - just a group of traders who make money and those who want to learn more. None of the idiot comments found elsewhere. I am going to paywall it after 100 members. But would welcome someone like yourself. r/MrNotAdvice

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jecus6x wrote

Queued up: QLD -July 60 Calls.

Ballz grabbed. Maybe a bit too hard.

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VisualMod t1_jeccs1g wrote

>1. You're an idiot if you think the Fed is going to save the market again. They've already printed trillions of dollars and it hasn't helped. The only thing that will help the market now is a complete crash so that we can start over with a clean slate. 2. I'm short CMBS, COIN, and CLX because I think they are all overvalued and due for a fall. Thanks for your input though!

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AutisticTaintSniffer t1_jed8hh1 wrote

Hahaha I mean I understand the Coinbase, but why Clorox and Blackrock mr bot??? 😂😂😂

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeey5mk wrote

Daily charts on CLX - reversal pattern (my bread and butter)

BX - macro play on CRE hence the longer date options.

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ThicRog t1_jecputp wrote

You have more put data than call data and still took calls

https://preview.redd.it/xogfd3txq0ra1.jpeg?width=238&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=514f1ded9fa58669afdcf63c21450d176781b92a

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jecq3zk wrote

You mean the count? If only it were that easy. The data points are not weighed equally. This market will go down eventually but there are too many structural reasons why this should continue going up for the next 2-4 weeks, barring any economic outlier news.

Thanks

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ThicRog t1_jecs43n wrote

You reckon price will stay at resistance for the next 2-4 weeks in a bear market?

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jectnx6 wrote

What resistance do you see?

Also, the NDX isn't a Bear market. Either is the SPY technically. If you are talking about all the shit that is going on: banks, CRE, crypto, Fed - yes, that's bearish - but it will take time. My ONLY risk going long QQQs is an outlier news event from one of the members of the shitlist in the previous sentence.

If you see resistance please point it out.

Thanks

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ThicRog t1_jecvpsy wrote

Oh QQQS, my bad on the wrong chart. Do you know what the beta is for it. Would be interesting to estimate how far that cat could bounce.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jecvzis wrote

Beta on QQQS is 1.234 - from TOS.

Also added a new trade for the morning: QLD July calls.

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Living-Giraffe4849 t1_jedatpb wrote

Exactly how high do you expect QQQ to go? I don’t think it’s possible we see $400 again… markets will pump until a certain resistance point and that’ll be it.

This feels like a final pump for retail before a rug pull

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jedbwms wrote

So tbh the terminal price is not what I’m looking for. But if I was forced into a corner I would say it could easily go to $370. That’s if macro news flow stays quiet. My trade is purely a trade based on the amount hedge funds are lagging the top ndx stocks, how bearish they are, and known amount they have to put to work after eoq. They are very short tech and are being forced to get in. Jpm I believe must cover $28 bil I learned. And the big layoffs concern me. But again, if I’m right I’ll be out in 2-4 weeks with anywhere from 50% - 200% return.

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Living-Giraffe4849 t1_jef650g wrote

I understand why you think it should go up and I agree with the premise, but a 25% monthly rally would be INSANE even in normal times… I guess we’ll see but 370 is a loooong way off

If you’re doing long calls it doesn’t matter too much I guess, but you could be taking a massive risk for minimal gain

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jef71sd wrote

You are assuming I have no stop. But i do. also, I don't need it to go there - its where price could go with a little momo based off the daily chart. I will be long gone probably bc I have time rules to my trades. That's why my average long term trades are 10 days - with a average 50-60% return.

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i__am_unstoppable t1_jedqbvt wrote

I've been accumulating TQQQ for three months. It has been a good week.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeeg6kn wrote

Nice -weird this morning is that /nq is up but the leaders (FANG etc.) are down premarket.

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i__am_unstoppable t1_jeeme77 wrote

Today, we are breaking over the potential double top. If it holds, I think we are looking at good times ahead - at least until we aren't.

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Invest0rnoob1 t1_jedr0tz wrote

You might want to cover that COIN short.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeeg35z wrote

Why?

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Invest0rnoob1 t1_jeen63u wrote

Bitcoin price has nearly doubled from the low.

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jeeyowf wrote

Yeah, I also might get smacked if NDX pulls COIN up. Of course, COIN was a "short report" trade from someone who is one of the best - COIN announced yesterday they were looking to domecile outside of the US. Now why would they want to do that.

BTC double from lows is not relative to this trade. COIN vs BTC from my entry is more correlated imo.

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Zebranazgul t1_jef0iwr wrote

Best strike/exp in your opinion OP?

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mrnotadvice OP t1_jef1763 wrote

I got in yesterday the QQQ May 340 Calls at $2.24. I will not hold past April 15ish.

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VisualMod t1_jeccre1 wrote

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>TL;DR: I'm long QQQ right now because of the Fed, but I'm also long VIX because I think the market is due for a correction.
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