Bitcoin or Barclays in a crash?

Submitted by VolatilityMarkets t3_11zsves in wallstreetbets

The SEC didn't mince their words regarding Cryptocurrencies!

"Investments in crypto asset securities can be exceptionally volatile and speculative, and the platforms where investors buy, sell, borrow, or lend these securities may lack important protections for investors. The risk of loss for individual investors who participate in transactions involving crypto assets, including crypto asset securities, remains significant. The only money you should put at risk with any speculative investment is money you can afford to lose entirely. Investors should understand that"

Sounds scary! But how risky is Bitcoin, as an example, exactly?

Bitcoin:
The last price for Bitcoin was $ 27,368 Over the past 21 days, Bitcoin historical volatility performed at 66%. This roughly translates into an expectation of a 4.15% move in price per day. The largest drawdown over the last 30 days was -6.5%. The largest up day over the last 30 days was 8.7%.

If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 40% within the next 21 Days

40%...

Bitcoin Worst Case Scenario:
https://www.volatilityfx.com/posts/lose-21-45-on-bitcoin-in-3-weeks-what-are-the-odds

Barclays:
The last price for Barclays was $ 6.86 Over the past 21 days, Barclays historical volatility performed at 65%. This roughly translates into an expectation of a 4.04% move in price per day. The largest drawdown in the dataset was -4.93%. The largest up day in the dataset was 10.8%.

If markets remain as volatile as they have been, we are 95% sure that the price won't make or lose more than 38.75% within the next 21 Days

39%...

Barclays Worst Case Scenario:
https://www.volatilityfx.com/posts/be-prepared-to-lose-11-55-on-your-barclays-position-in-3-weeks

So which would you rather own in a crash? Bitcoin or Barclays?

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VisualMod t1_jddxyfe wrote

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>TL;DR: Bitcoin is more volatile than Barclays, but the odds of losing more than 40% in a crash are about the same.
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jcodes57 t1_jdtq1lk wrote

Pretty funny to me that my banking stock could drop 98% in the past year but yeah stocks are definitely better then crypto all the time, right SEC?

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