FRC Hedge

Submitted by FantomJr t3_125pcgo in wallstreetbets

With FRC currently trading at 14.29, the two primary possibilities now that they've denied a buyout are either complete failure or recovery. Recovery would mean significant pop considering a current P/E ratio of 1.5. Failure would mean the stock going to zero. Could you not hedge shares bought at the current price by also buying August or November $1 Puts? The options profit calculator places the theoretical gain on these puts at a stock price of zero to be 400-550%. So if you were to buy one put for every 5 shares you would completely cover losses if the stock were to go to zero. If FRC indicates it will recover over the next 6-9 months, then the upside would likely more than cover the losses from the puts expiring worthless. Is this idea too black and white? What issues do you all see with it?

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VisualMod t1_je54uxl wrote

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VisualMod t1_je54vqo wrote

>The main issue with this idea is that it's very risky. If FRC does indeed recover, the puts will likely expire worthless and you'll be left with a large loss. Additionally, if FRC doesn't give any indication of recovery over the next 6-9 months, then there's a good chance the stock could continue to decline, in which case your put options would start to increase in value but you'd still be losing money on your shares. So overall I think this idea is too risky and not worth pursuing.

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Dorktastical t1_je5n3so wrote

1.5 P/E sounds fair for a bank, maybe it just stays where it is until it grows some balls.

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ErikInvest t1_je5u0ff wrote

What issue I see? The zero deposit and clients in the next earning report

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cbusoh66 t1_je5zjbm wrote

In the absence of a buyout, it doesn’t mean a complete failure nor a complete recovery. That 1.5 PE was the past before they lost a ton of deposits and maybe had to swallow a bunch of losses.

I doubt this goes to old highs so upside is limited, IMO, until they report earnings and analysts understand the extent of the hit.

The Feds (FDIC, Treasury, and Federal Reserve) do not want to see it fail either, they’re backstopping losses (but no one knows the cost) so if it makes it through this week at least, the odds are it’s not going to fail. It’s going to take months to figure out what its true value is.

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