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erickssm t1_jeeagik wrote

Here is a different view of the same data.

https://preview.redd.it/81jyzvb4v3ra1.png?width=1138&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d362b03e143abdfa05808eb87c0f92fb6c8d7a04

587

JPowsSecretlover OP t1_jeebjfl wrote

This might be my Burry momentimg

276

FVMAzalea t1_jeemcwz wrote

Nah, you do sort of have a point. As those deposits grew in the last few years, banks bought assets (like bonds) with them. Now those assets are worth less (though not worthless) so there can be (and has been) damage from the pace of withdrawals, not just the amount of withdrawals relative to the total.

Not sure if your graph is absolute outflows or net outflows across all banks though. If I withdraw $1M from First Republic and put it into Chase, the net outflow is $0 but the total outflow is $1M.

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bnh1978 t1_jeep0j9 wrote

Added to this is that the depository reserves were reduced to 0% in early 2020.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jefgghf wrote

Makes you wonder how many of the shitcoin/stablecoin brokers are basically insolvent b/c they all claimed to have cash positions in the form of T bills....

So really, are they pumping BTC through fake printing of more shitcoins to cash out their BTC and liquidate personal holdings before they announce the collapse of stablecoins all before the public figures it out?

17

ultralane t1_jefyjsl wrote

T Bills are never considered as cash and any audit firm worth an ounce would have a friendly discussion with management and a disclosure to the public (if the issue isn't rectified).

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jeg695o wrote

Circle literally has it on their website they consider T bills as cash equivalent balances which is locked up as short term treasuries held at custodians like blackrock etc.

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ultralane t1_jega5nb wrote

I had gotten my treasury investments mixed up. If a maturity is going to be matured in 3 months, then the t-bill can be considered as cash. Otherwise its a short-term investment.

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jegfbqj wrote

They make no mention they were of 3-mo they could be 2yr dated and either way; if due as payment B4 maturity that would mean significant losses piled up and liquidated at losses. This means any of these dumb shitcoin/stablecoin which nosedive frequently are all false pegs and not stable.

4

ultralane t1_jeglyty wrote

T-bills always mature within a year. Treasury notes lasts from 2 - 5 years. Treasury bonds are longer.

T-Bills are liquid assets, but I would definitely pause if they don't have the standard 3 month rule that everyone else normally applies.

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jegoiyr wrote

Circles site doesn't specifically mention t bills, they actually just say treasuries.

1

DerpyMcOptions t1_jegou8w wrote

Q, why the fuck are you bothering to try and defend random shitcoins when you won't even go look it up?

1

ultralane t1_jegshw1 wrote

I never said I was defending. If a maturity is maturing in 3 months or less, its allowed to be in Cash on their financial statements, assuming that it is disclosed on what's included. The lack of a hard and fast time rule is what is sticking out to me, assuming Reddit is stating the footnote correctly. The 3 month rule is applicable to 99.999999% of companies that follow GAAP. I really don't have an interest in going through some random companies FS. Just stating what is standard.

1

bulldozer1 t1_jeewjm3 wrote

Idk why this sub wants there to be a banking crisis and recession so badly

72

PerpPartyLines t1_jeex5o5 wrote

Diamond hands puts holders scratching the screens on their Blackberrys

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OrionJohnson t1_jeex6g0 wrote

I mean, even on this chart you can see that deposits have never had a serious prolonged downward trend like we are in now.

10

erickssm t1_jef07r5 wrote

It also shows we never had such a massive spike before as well. It is completely expected to have some reversion after such a massive inflow during 2020-21. That drawdown is precisely why we haven't seen a recession yet. People had a nice cushion to lean on when inflation started to squeeze consumers.

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Cleanbadroom t1_jef3oim wrote

That looks like the soft landing I have been hearing about. We've already had a banking crisis back in 2008. I think this time we should switch it up and have a different kind of crisis. The last recession was pretty great.

6

memestockwatchlist t1_jef3omv wrote

So deposits exploded higher after the stimmies but it's been shaky the past six months or so? Does this totally contradict OP or am I blind?

3

caughtinthought t1_jefa9gs wrote

This view doesn't show the decline in ops graphic. 600B would be significant even on the fred chart

3

BlackSquirrel05 t1_jefps9w wrote

Well it's a 600 billion - in a sea that has swelled to 20 trillion.

Put that in a bit of perspective.

2

caughtinthought t1_jegkeua wrote

It's 2T between each of the y ticks. 600B would be over a quarter of that. It would be very obvious.

2

davesmith001 t1_jefd3rr wrote

And yet the fed claims to not be able to spot inflation. Those clowns are treasonously regarded.

2

jinqsi t1_jeg2d02 wrote

Yep. This accounts for ~3% decline in deposits from Feb 2023 according to a quick google search.

1

lhzvan t1_jegdxkl wrote

except thats not the same data

its like saying distance travelled and the accelaration are the same data, theyre not

1

Durumbuzafeju t1_jeeaq3o wrote

This might be a dumb question but where does this money go? People/companies are keeping billions in safes?

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JPowsSecretlover OP t1_jeebdkw wrote

Half of it goes to bonds / money markets

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Only-Shame5188 t1_jeei0qp wrote

I moved some money out of my savings into VMFXX to get a better return.

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SuperDadTrapp t1_jefeam1 wrote

Can you tell me a little bit about this?

7

conkers15 t1_jefmg9y wrote

If you don't need cash on hand for anything right now, you can buy VMFXX and make more money than if you let said cash sit in a bank that probably pays you close to nothing in interest.

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SuperDadTrapp t1_jegxqw6 wrote

Awesome I got some cash to spare for investing. I like the way it sounds I’ll do some more research thank you

4

Sattu10 t1_jeen9y1 wrote

So it’s just moving from consumer banks to investment banks.

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EducatorReasonable51 t1_jeemvv5 wrote

Who wants to park cash at .5% at your bank when you can park it at 4%+ in money market accounts or bonds and 5%+ in a medium term CD?

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markgriz t1_jeez3gp wrote

If your bank is paying you 0.5% on your cash, find a better bank.

Capital One is currently paying 3.4% on their savings accounts. Discover is paying 3.5

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Trest43wert t1_jefj29b wrote

This is a big part of the story - many banks can't pay more than 0.5% interest because the money from their deposits are locked up in low interest loans from the past. Their overall portfolio may average 2% given that they had to sell recent bonds to fund outflows to money markets. Basically, bank holdings have dwindled to the assets with shit yield and they are trying, and failing, to pass that shit yield to grandma's savings account. Grandma aint having it so they sell more assets. Spiral ensues.

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Chishuu t1_jef1pjl wrote

UFB is paying 5.02%

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markgriz t1_jef2wmv wrote

I saw that. Read the reviews, sounds like a nightmare

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Chishuu t1_jef5acl wrote

How so? Seems to be solid

0

ItsDijital t1_jefddsq wrote

Ally has a no penalty CD at 4.75% 4.35%

https://www.ally.com/bank/no-penalty-cd/

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Chishuu t1_jeg1xaj wrote

Yes, but there’s a 18 month hold. And there are penalties for withdrawing early. And it’s 5%.

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ItsDijital t1_jeg5r55 wrote

No, the minimum holding time is like 6 days. That's what makes it "no penalty".

Edit: it's 4.35% now

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Chishuu t1_jeg73es wrote

Ah, I didn’t see the no penalty link. Thanks.

0

mogarottawa t1_jefoixd wrote

This is just a dumb take. Anyone who had 100k+ cash would not be sitting on 100k+ cash unless they need to use it in the short term. People who have 100k + ash are not dumb enough to not invest that money if they don't need it. Anyone sitting on 10k or less cash is not going to bother buying bonds. This mythical millions of people who has been holding a lot of cash in their bank account story is just BS.

3

Celtic_Legend t1_jeepttk wrote

Money markets. Even retail is pulling out. Why keep money in bank for 0.02% interest when fidelity will automatically put any unused cash in their 4% yield money maket. Other brokers offering similar.

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W2ttsy t1_jeetq02 wrote

Man what is going on with your banks where interest rates are still this low with such high inflation?

Here in Australia 4.25% is about the average savings interest you can get on any standard bank account. Higher if using fixed term deposits or saver accounts.

I mean I’ve got my money parked in an offset account on my mortgage netting me a guaranteed 6.09% return (more if there are further rate rises) and far less volatile than anything I could buy on the ASX or NASDAQ.

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Celtic_Legend t1_jeeuvdb wrote

My guess is that getting a full 6-8%+ return with less customers is more profit than retaining customers by offering 4% and making 2-4%.

Small banks are happy to offer 5% right now though. Bank of america and chase are offering essentially 0% which are the 2 biggest banks. Cba googling more.

5

tjonesmachine93 t1_jeh225l wrote

Because banking is sticky. People are more reluctant to change banks than cell phone providers. Consider a big bank like BofA with $2T in deposits. Let’s assume 1/3 is just going to be your average Joe or Joe’s plumbing with 10-20k in checking accounts and another 20k in an emergency savings account. Those accounts are yielding 0.02% currently and have been (or less) for a while. So the price to service these accounts is 130M annually. If they were to just automatically pay a competitive 3-4%, that 130M goes to $20B. They know they are too big to fail and if they experience a run the fed will are in, which they have already. Large banks have literally no reason to pass along a good interest rate to customers bc, frankly, they don’t want their deposits.

1

Trest43wert t1_jefjejx wrote

Bank bond portfolios are filled with low interest bonds from a few years ago. They are stuck with them and are unable to pay more yield given how their bonds are positioned. Its a death spiral.

3

dayby_day t1_jef1ebo wrote

Money market accounts are still bank accounts, they just pay higher interest. So banks still have the money, they're just paying mote for it.

This isn't going to make banks insolvent, it's just going to pinch margins because the cost if funds are going up. It's a profitability issue not a liquidity issue.

3

SwimmingEnd1 t1_jef3b2d wrote

The reason why OP’s chart doesn’t tell the whole story is assets may be leaving deposits, and going to MMAs or CDs, but those MMAs and CDs are offered by banks. So net 0. A lot of grasping at straws to convince people we’re about to be in some major depression. It’s just not the case.

2

josephbenjamin t1_jeh0qtw wrote

Lots of people get credit from regional banks while big banks are stringent and under heavier “regulation”. If more regional banks close up or tighten up, it will create massive credit crunch. With bond prices up, you will essentially have low credit availability, since people can be more picky. It’s not simple math as most people assume. You can’t solve calculus formula with arithmetic level knowledge. Many issues are involved in this.

2

Goracij t1_jegbbd1 wrote

This. One should look not where money were, but where did they go. And at this moment I can see only one place - the stock market and bonds.

2

grimkhor t1_jee9kfl wrote

Ah yes the very dramatic chart only issue is that it doesn't mean anything. It's change in deposits not outflows and considering that 2020 and 2021 had covid which grew the savings rate significantly you would expect that people deposit a lot less comparatively (what the chart measures actually) now that everything is opened again and a crisis is going on.

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jojoyahoo t1_jeeykt9 wrote

Plus the fact that there's just under $18T in commercial deposits, so $600B is a drop in the bucket.

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grimkhor t1_jeeza9b wrote

Yeah. There did some chart magic and borderline manipulation to make it look dramatic. The outflows headline for example doesn't match the chart description about deposit change. They also left out many important information like what change it is YoY or decade over decade nobody knows. Fishy.

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46andTwoDescending t1_jef5zf1 wrote

600 billion is not a drop in the bucket of 18 trillion. I wouldn't call 3% a drop of anything, and in a system sensitive to fractions of a percent, it most certainly is not just a drop in the bucket.

5

46andTwoDescending t1_jef6c0t wrote

3% gains every day for a year on a $2,000 trading account and you have a quarter of a million.

That's sort of a big deal.

2

2bits2many t1_jeebj0r wrote

Not sure how these 2 charts coexist, maybe you could explain further. The story I've been hearing is that people are figuring out US treasuries pay nearly 5% while savings accounts pay .05%.

2

erickssm t1_jeetpi2 wrote

The OPs chart only shows the drawdowns in the data. That chart is designed for shock factor to scare people into thinking that there is something bad happening. The actual data from the FRED site shows the reality. It shows that all of the drawdowns are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. Bank deposits not only have continuously trended higher over time, the current draw down is a fraction of what was moved into deposits over the past couple years.

5

grimkhor t1_jeec2qz wrote

The top chart doesn't make any sense at all. It compares yoy (or mom?!) numbers of deposits from peak?!

Here's the still very dramatic yoy deposit numbers with a zoom to make them look more dramatic again.

https://www.ceicdata.com/datapage/charts/ipc_united-states_total-deposits-growth/?type=area&from=2022-03-01&to=2023-02-01&lang=en

So if you now take this chart look where it peaked (probably in 2020 with covid money) and now take the amount of money this change until now represents it would be the posts chart. It's absolutely useless but it is what it is.

Edit:

OPs chart is basically a Frankenstein of the drop top right here and translated to a big number instead of percent:

https://www.ceicdata.com/datapage/charts/ipc_united-states_total-deposits-growth/?type=area&period=5y&lang=en

Not even starting to talk about the headline being about outflows while the chart being about change in deposits.

3

thefutureisnotset t1_jeeqy9u wrote

It looks to me like the one given by u/erickssm just shows total bank deposits directly over time, which trends upward with a sharper jump in 2020 reflecting the increased savings during the pandemic with a mild downward trend in 2022.

The one given by OP shows “change in bank deposits from peak” and if the top of the graph is 0 but the actual amount of deposits trends up, that must mean it’s dynamically considering the peak as it updates over time rather than the peak considering the entire data set. So even though this chart shows 0 from 2020 to 2022, what’s really going on is the peak is sharply rising, so then the sharp downfall looks way more dramatic because the way the graph is structured strongly emphasizes decreasing deposits while abstracting increasing deposits.

2

JPowsSecretlover OP t1_jeecagw wrote

After editing your comment you are now actually wrong. It does not matter how much new money people deposit now compared to in the past.

This chart shows the difference in total money deposited at banks compared to the peak of total money deposited.

0

JPowsSecretlover OP t1_jee9xvi wrote

We know that credit card debt is skyrocketing and savings are plummeting. With this in mind, this chart says something. I don't know what but somethingimg

−6

grimkhor t1_jeeaa6g wrote

It says nothing besides a regard trying to create copium for their puts.

Looks a lot less dramatic using the monthly total numbers.

https://www.ceicdata.com/datapage/charts/ipc_united-states_total-deposits/?type=area&period=10y&lang=en

Edit: Looking at their site it makes a lot of sense now. They want to pitch you alternative investments because the stock market is too dangerous img You NEED them and you should pay them img

>Since our founding in 1990, we have established a notable record of success in alternative investments.

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Friendship4Every1 t1_jeeass2 wrote

Why is the top $0? What about the record deposits/savings that happened in the past few years? Stupid chart.

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K1rkl4nd t1_jeejunl wrote

"But who wouldn't want 0.05% interest on their savings account with us?" -banks
(For reference I got a whopping 10 cents this month on the $15K I've got in savings- FU, US Bank)

11

VisualMod t1_jee8pmg wrote

That's a really interesting article! I had no idea that so much money was leaving the banks when the Fed began to raise interest rates. That definitely shows how rich and intelligent people are getting smarter with their money.

5

GrandPost9774 t1_jeelnel wrote

Why don’t US banks pay interest on deposits? Here in UK with my chase account I get 3.1%

3

Celtic_Legend t1_jeer78e wrote

Greed. They think lending out less for the full 100% of revenue is more profitable than increasing customers/deposits while doing revenue-expenses. And they are probably right for now. Chase in the US pays 0.01% lol

All the small banks here are offering 5% to get new customers from the giants. For retail and business though, its way less effort to just stick it in a broker you already have set up offering 4.x% instead of opening with a smaller bank. Almost every1 of us here has either a fidelity, ibkr, or even robinhood acc they use and those 3 are offering 4+%.

1

BlackSquirrel05 t1_jefrojw wrote

They don't have to yet...

Once things become more competitive they'll up the % on accounts.

Basically everyone needs to move their money around.

1

Reduntu t1_jeeq074 wrote

Every graph is more exciting when you don't adjust for inflation, ya goober. Yeah, this is a big deal, in 1974 dollars.

3

Gotl0stinthesauce t1_jees44n wrote

Buy the dip guys. Or keep thinking it’ll crash and watch this run pass you by

3

VisualMod t1_jee8p6r wrote

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1

electroviruz t1_jeeb9wc wrote

Shouldn't the head line read 'since people panicked and pulled there monies out' and not say 8t is because of rate hikes?

1

player89283517 t1_jeemcuz wrote

Where are they putting the money? Stocks?

1

Huge_Dot t1_jeemw8b wrote

If they wanted to keep the deposits they would offer more than 0.05% interest rate on their checking account.

They've done the math and realized they make more on the diff between the overnight rate and all the idiots who won't move their money than they would make on keeping deposits at a higher interest rate and loaning it out to bonds or mortgages.

1

__sys_out_println__ t1_jeetqh5 wrote

I don’t get it. What are they converting the money they withdraw to? Riskier assets?

1

auction-a-baby t1_jeeuk1z wrote

Money is leaving the banks and flowing into SPY

1

mr-jjj t1_jeewnb0 wrote

Wonder what volume of money each holder has, and if the bank runs are initiated and dominated by people with earnings over $1M per year.

1

FUK1T-88 t1_jeexpt4 wrote

I've held up my phone in various ways and angles and still have no clue what this means...I've been suffering from Financial impairment for quite some time. Thank God for my dog, who's bark I depend on. 1 for entries and 2 for exits.

1

TruChains t1_jeexsh0 wrote

Let’s see Paul Allen’s outflow

1

cookiehustler88 t1_jeeyly4 wrote

Went to things like FTX's 8% cash balance yield am i right

1

_Klarum t1_jeeyx1x wrote

They have not 'left the banks'. They moved from smaller banks to the big names because people know the government will not let them default. Do you think the money is going into bags and buried in the backyard?

Get some decent data.

1

Sweaty_Bird481 t1_jeezio1 wrote

>two more weeks

Margin calls got all these bear regards on suicide watch rn lol. Economy's doing fine. Banks are fine. Everything is fine. You are throwing your money away.

1

KuchenArt t1_jef5d0j wrote

fundamentally it’s credibility that matters to banks. they can’t just fuck around people’s hard earned savings and don’t give a shit about liquidity. probably going to take awhile to regain public’s trust.

1

norcalgolfgolf t1_jef61wl wrote

Yea but this doesn’t account for money moving to other banks or short term bonds or investment mm accounts. People are shifting money to get paid. Big banks are trying to combat the movement of cash by offering big interest on deposits. Without deposits they can’t lend. Most are leveraged to the gills with the fed. I’d pick smaller community banks to hold cash as most are very liquid and loan to deposit ratios are still very strong.

1

computermademedoit t1_jefb8hp wrote

the big banks are unironically fine

​

yes some took some losses on the same bullshit that SVB was doing - buying long term bonds bc they were greedy and the returns were better than short term bonds

​

but the big boys like BAC arent as regarded as SVB. They took some losses, but not catastrophic.

​

the deposit runs will probably actually help them. BC where are you taking that money? under your mattress?

no what you likely are doing is going and buying a CD at 5% or putting it in some 3.5% - 4% savings account at a big bank

​

overall the banking system is basically fine.

​

this guys got some great videos on it, as always -

https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyle/videos

​

Personally i bought BAC at around 26.5.

​

I mean look at this BAC chart, this shit goes back all the way to 2008. just a fucking escalator up and trading within that range for 15 years. If you arent buying it here, at the bottom of that range, personally I think you're a moron populist who just wants to see the banks fail bc that plays into your doomer philosophy. And you're dumb doomer shit is costing you opportunity. but thats just my take.

https://preview.redd.it/pmqc680g55ra1.png?width=1463&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=8b504d819ef455e23f3300f6e52691280b6aad57

1

SuperDadTrapp t1_jefdz29 wrote

I use a credit Union, they pay me to bank there

1

CoincadeFL t1_jefeqjg wrote

Tell me how tall is your mattress if you have to hide $600bn under it? 😂😂

1

the_dalailama134 t1_jefm4wt wrote

Bank fear is FUD and a joke. Can't believe grown adults that are supposed to be market analysts and investors are being scared by this.

​

The chart that was posted at the top of comments is spot on. There are so many deposits in banks.

1

muffinstuffed t1_jefn4c1 wrote

Why would I leave money at my bank paying me 0.5% or less when I can get 4% or more with a risk free treasury MMF?

1

drkaos_69 t1_jefwm0d wrote

Print more money 💰 let’s just worry about it next year it’s like binge drinking to keep going, and you just have to keep drinking to keep going. You just have to keep printing paper.

1

Tbone_Trapezius t1_jeg1hsy wrote

Sorry, everyone, I turned off my 401k contributions to maximize cash from a bonus. It’s back on so things should calm down.

1

smithbensmith t1_jeg33y9 wrote

And where are they going?…..the stock market

1

newWallstreet t1_jeg3lt5 wrote

I’m buying the dip, think I might just put more money in the bank today

1

HotCheetoAddict69 t1_jeg3wei wrote

SCHW Schwab is about to be next, their executives are saying they can ride out a bank run but I guess we’ll find out.

1

Javier-AML t1_jeg432f wrote

Could I have that adjusted to inflation? Nominally it's a lot of money, but there's also a lot of money circulating.

1

vicaris_mb t1_jegh6az wrote

short squeeze incoming

1

beep-boop-bop-robot t1_jegl0yu wrote

My 401k has been cash since October 21’ and it just may never go back into the hands of a bank.

1

Ok_Teacher_6834 t1_jegqyn1 wrote

Hey but they gave the banks 2 trillion so it doesn’t matter lol

1

LeoBrok3n t1_jeguy7w wrote

Isn't this money being pulled from one bank and placed into another? These high-rollers aren't taking out cash deposists and hiding it their mattresses.

1