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RGJabber t1_jdxjt6z wrote

Crazy that we were in extreme fear a three weeks ago and we only dipped into the 380s on spy for a week.

I know you said the banks could be the black swan event but it seems like the backstop has prevented that so far. Unless they let a bank fail without insuring deposits past 250k, I'm not sure what will truly take this market lower.

I'm a bear at heart buy i'm hopping on the bull train short term.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_jdxk2e7 wrote

Its crazy i really did think the banks thing would be the black swan. But damn this markets resilient as ever.

But i still believe a rally to 415-420 is an opportunity for puts

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murphy1455 t1_jdxu8qe wrote

It’s not resiliency it’s called The Fed, they won’t let it crash.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_jdxuc3r wrote

The "reslient" fed lol. But agreed this is still much like october being propped up

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SweetVsSavory t1_jdyhoqx wrote

Thank you for sharing your DD. I appreciate you. I messed up today and sat on some 396 calls in at 398 thinking today was the day we’d see this pop. 2 times we saw my chance to get with small loses and sat tight thinking we’d close high. Reversed play late with 397 14dte puts

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janeohmy t1_jdz763e wrote

It's because previous crashes were due to actual impoverishment. Today's crash is due to overabundance, ergo a crash due to correction, ergo a correction. This is not resiliency. This is just progress in society. We're just overall richer nowadays, despite people cosplaying as the poor

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Timely-Government-84 t1_jdxn649 wrote

Commercial real estate will take the markets lower - the news wheel is just catching on but I’ve been living mostly in the office sector for three years. All product types (mf, industrial, retail, etc) will suffer with the recession, but office is particularly fucked rn.

Probably correct to be short-term bull, but cracks are forming big time.

The long-term nature of office cre and their leases ensures these issues creep up slowly, but also that they don’t and can’t really go away without a serious intervention.

The media is focusing on smaller banks share of loans backed by cre, which is an issue sure, but in the end that’s not really what matters. What matters is office was overbuilt already, now you have an absurd essentially overnight disappearance of demand that hasn’t healed in three years, and as a result ANY owner with a heavy exposure to office outside the highest quality assets will have trouble covering their debt payments and even if payment isn’t an issue they’re still considering handing the keys back (because why continue to hold an asset with negative leverage).

Google search on your own and you’ll very quickly find multiple recent examples of institutional players wiping their hands clean of office product. You’re not even hearing about the smaller players doing the same, but they are there.

Unless somehow demand suddenly skyrockets and lenders can buy an owners story of a turnaround and growing rents based on that (allowing for some creativity around extensions), keys will continue to be handed back and write downs will accelerate.

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SweetVsSavory t1_jdyh5qt wrote

When the feds are talking about something negative happening, they are working hard, and ultimately will not allow it to happen on the mainstream media. They NEED to save face. It’s when no one is paying attention that it happens.

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