Okay, alternate ending, the credit crunch never comes, but inflation is unrelenting. Borrowers whose wages cannot keep pace with inflation have to make hard decisions about how to allocate their limited capital. They need a car to get to work, so they prioritize that expense. Now the vehicle that they paid far too much for relative to its age and condition needs costly repairs that they cannot afford, it no longer has utility as transportation, so paying the loan is no longer a priority. They’re too upside down to trade it, so they get approved for a second auto loan because the lenders are chasing yield. Now they can default on the first loan and let the first bank take the loss.

The average auto loan written in the past 2.5 years is worthless. The risk adjusted return is negative. What do balance sheets look like if car notes are treated as liabilities rather than assets?

I’m drunk and rambling, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

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