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token-eater t1_iuc4sdw wrote

This market is showing heavy signs of denial. A lot of people think that everything is priced in, and we’re due for a pivot soon. Inflation is still high, people are still buying monkey jpegs/meme coins, unemployment numbers are low and the stock market has done nothing but mock Jpow.

We have the perfect ingredients to keep going down, but somehow people still manage to find hope that their $50 in Meta will get them rich. Straight up denial.

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nvk1196 OP t1_iucc4ej wrote

Fed’s been raising rate by 75 points several times now and inflation is barely budged. Their target is around 4% in 2023, but I think they would need to raise rate to at least 7%. I think it will take the market by surprise that it when the market will really drop.

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HoiPolloiAhloi t1_iucx6oo wrote

It cant be doom and gloom all the time, capital $ will always flow to a place of volatility and potential returns.

Where else will $ go? China stocks?

2

achyballz500 t1_iud9u8s wrote

It’s going up. Everyone is selling homes to buy the iPhone 14

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attofreak t1_iuc47zk wrote

Anyone who ever uses the phrase, "pRiCeD iN", first needs to give a grounded, empirical, detailed description of what they mean by that magic phrase. What metric do you savants use to say that this or that piece of news is magically, "priced in"? What's the scale of this metric, what are the extremes of this scale and what theory/model describes the gradient across this scale?

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undercoverconsultant t1_iuceasj wrote

The term is used in regards of Information or conclusions to indicate that the market is already aware of this and is considering this in price finding process.

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attofreak t1_iucew07 wrote

Throwing the word "information" around does not mean you explained anything. Everything is information. It's one of those, "nothing" answers.

Question is specifically what process/model/metric/method/even theory (if one can aim that high) is used to state with a quantifiable probability, that this or that piece of news/"information" is "priced in"?

0

blutch14 t1_iucyui3 wrote

I mean it's just a case of action and consequence right. When something happens and the market fails to react in the direction it should you could argue that the news is priced in, which makes sense because the market would otherwise be easy to predict. You can't really prove any of it, but when the supercomputer algos decide not to react the moment something occurs i suppose they believe the market is already at fair value.

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Puzzleheaded_Friend8 t1_iud3973 wrote

People who thinks it’s one big conspiracy just don’t have a clue what they are doing. It’s priced in and the market looks ahead over a number of years. So doom and gloom based upon on something limited like a war that has caused inflation isn’t going to go on forever. The market has an idea that it will end one way or another next year. And then things thrive.

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DoomerGloomerBloomer t1_iuem931 wrote

How about you try googling it instead of arguing with the person who answered your question?

There is no quantifiable reason behind it. Fucking google it, noob, and learn what the efficient market hypothesis is while you're at it.

None of this means the market machinations are accurate or make any sense - they don't - but at least you'll understand why they are all efficiently fucked up.

0

attofreak t1_iueobec wrote

> How about you try googling it

> None of this means the market machinations are accurate or make any sense

lol, that's how I know when I am talking to a moron. EMH is known to be quantifiably false since at least 1960s. "GoOgLe It", dipshit.

> why they are all efficiently fucked up.

keep screeching "efficiency" a couple of more times, maybe you'll convince yourself you understand what it means. Now go shove your head back up your own ass.

0

DoomerGloomerBloomer t1_iuev27i wrote

LOL what an insufferable asshole. You probably think you're a lot smarter thsn you actually are.

EMH is not "quantifiably false". You like saying "quantifiable" a lot, yet you don't know what that even means.

Since you are easily confused by EMH and the saying, "it's priced in", I know I'm wasting time with the likes of you.

Rest assured, the markets are extremely efficient. You don't have to like it, but the preponderance of the evidence is clear: information, whether factually accurate or not, is used by market participants when trading securities.

Again, that fact seems to simultaneously confuse and trigger you, but your feelings are irrelevant to the facts.

Now, go back to your room and wallow in your own misery. Bitch.

1

nvk1196 OP t1_iudt6gr wrote

This could be a self-fulfilling prophecy since everyone is expecting it. Companies are stacking cash instead of using that money for R&D. And inflation is at 8% ish so technically the actual companies earning would be whatever reported minus 8%

1

Charlieuyj t1_iuc6wgp wrote

Seems to me, alot of stocks are being heavily shorted.

3

you_are_stupid666 t1_iuczkhp wrote

One of these days people will begin to understand that rate of change is more important than raw numbers.

Best of luck.

3

rubyone2 t1_iud7djk wrote

Spy is exactly where it was for the last TWO rate hikes. This week we will have three .75% hikes with the market at the exact same place. That doesn’t seem “priced in”.

3

Vodkaconhielo t1_iuc5fpd wrote

Everything is priced in until something take the market totally by surprise. Did you see what happened overnight with bonds in the UK ? If the BOE hadn't intervened inmediatly the systemic risk could have caused a massive crash in almost all markets around the world. In 2007 the market didn't know about CDOs until it was too late. This time could be the same we don't know what could be hiding under the surface invisible to the markets but sovereign debt around the world looks extremely dangerous and nobody knows what to do exactly in case of a sovereign default that could potentially involve big countries in the EU.

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blutch14 t1_iucxxu0 wrote

There really doesnt have to be a big catalyst that crashes the market, it can just continue this slow bleed with lower lows. The markets where propped up with increased money supply, now we can go back to a rational value. Maybe 2023 guidance will make institutions pull out if it's a bad outlook.

3

BlueMysteryWolf t1_iue7h31 wrote

A housing industry that bought dozens of houses would have to go belly up from poor mismangement and lack of being able to create revenue. Then there will be a flood of houses suddenly available. Remember it took a company going belly up in 08 for that crisis? Just like it did for Evergrande.

​

We're already slowly starting to go back to companies giving out houses to those who can't afford it in the long term in order to make at least some money from their places.

1

MakingMoneyIsMe t1_iuc9k68 wrote

There's not enough euphoria just yet

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nvk1196 OP t1_iuccdr1 wrote

I don’t think it would be a crash like 08, but there is no way companies earning and housing can go up with this high of interest rate. The worst case is market would go side way for several years. I’m not saying it will crash, but I think we have a better odd betting on bear then bull

1

Some_Somewhere2434 t1_iucnt1c wrote

O it will crash. Modern finance is like fucking Jenga. It’s always hindsight 20/20 after that last block gets pulled. Wouldn’t be a crash if we all see it coming right?

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MakingMoneyIsMe t1_iucstqi wrote

I don't disagree, but there's more companies closer to their 52 week lows than their 52 week highs

1

daytradingguy t1_iuczjw1 wrote

And the prices 52 weeks ago were overvalued, the values were pumped for years with low interest rates and excess liquidity. This is being taken away and is going to stay that way for a couple of years. Many stocks will see multi year lows, not 52 week lows.

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1

Aura_Financial t1_iudcg22 wrote

Shorts unless for earnings will be bag holders. Earnings are past data and market in whole is moving on “pause” by FRB. We are at the end of FRB tightening.

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therealshaggie t1_iudkxjq wrote

Q4 is normal for bullish intent but I expect rates to be raised at least two more time’s

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Squawwk1200 t1_iudva13 wrote

Wrong. The market is slowing down, NOT going down.

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nvanderw t1_iueh96l wrote

Price in these nuts. I hate that term.

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DoomerGloomerBloomer t1_iueljqe wrote

Nope, but I'm not buying this market either. Imma let the fuck fuck games play out. This market is nonsense though and should be drilling further into the earth.

It should get a lot worse before it gets better. The fed will not pivot until inflation gets back to 2%. Nobody should be expecting or pricing in lower interest rates until inflation has a reading of 2%.

So over the next year or two I'm anticipating higher interest rates, lower equity prices, and choppy economic activity until inflation gets back under control.

This also is to say nothing about the geopolitical environment, which is not looking too promising either.

Forecast: cloudy with a chance of selloff

1

VonKaplow t1_iuemlvg wrote

I got caught in a short position when i shorted msft at 232$. Hoping for a pullback on Monday

1