Vodkaconhielo t1_iuc5fpd wrote on October 30, 2022 at 5:11 AM

Everything is priced in until something take the market totally by surprise. Did you see what happened overnight with bonds in the UK ? If the BOE hadn't intervened inmediatly the systemic risk could have caused a massive crash in almost all markets around the world. In 2007 the market didn't know about CDOs until it was too late. This time could be the same we don't know what could be hiding under the surface invisible to the markets but sovereign debt around the world looks extremely dangerous and nobody knows what to do exactly in case of a sovereign default that could potentially involve big countries in the EU.

blutch14 t1_iucxxu0 wrote on October 30, 2022 at 11:39 AM

There really doesnt have to be a big catalyst that crashes the market, it can just continue this slow bleed with lower lows. The markets where propped up with increased money supply, now we can go back to a rational value. Maybe 2023 guidance will make institutions pull out if it's a bad outlook.

BlueMysteryWolf t1_iue7h31 wrote on October 30, 2022 at 5:36 PM

A housing industry that bought dozens of houses would have to go belly up from poor mismangement and lack of being able to create revenue. Then there will be a flood of houses suddenly available. Remember it took a company going belly up in 08 for that crisis? Just like it did for Evergrande.

We're already slowly starting to go back to companies giving out houses to those who can't afford it in the long term in order to make at least some money from their places.