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Infamous_Sympathy_91 OP t1_iuedmwp wrote

Reply to comment by LetsKickTheirAss in Consensus has been systematically wrong about inflation decreasing by Infamous_Sympathy_91

Exactly the discussion we should be having... this affects the entire market.

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nvanderw t1_iuegp1z wrote

So the real question is. is this time different from previous times? and in what ways?

I have I-bonds, but I also think it will only take 2-4 years this time to get inflation down to 2. We live in a different, more deflationary economy in 2022.

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Evn-erl t1_iuemsc7 wrote

It is most certainly different for the simple fact that the world is WAY different.

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5_minute_major t1_iuenm8w wrote

Wut?

Globalism is dying or is already dead. We can no longer rely on cheap labor from China to produce everything. The world is increasingly becoming fractured into spheres of influence. If anything, we live in a more inflationary environment than the last two decades.

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numba1mrdata t1_iugnx48 wrote

>Globalism is dying or is already dead.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/global-trade-growth-2022/#:~:text=Global%20trade%20has%20bounced%20back,the%20prospects%20of%20global%20trade.

“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

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5_minute_major t1_iui07ul wrote

It matters about where the world is headed, not what the numbers are right now. Biden is absolutely putting China in the crosshairs with his latest move to require licenses for chip technology.

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numba1mrdata t1_iui34m5 wrote

The longer timeline you look at the more globalized we'll become. 5, 10, 20 years...borders are going to be a lot less meaningful. It's inevitable, it benefits too many people's pocketbooks to not happen.

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ResponsiblePumpkin60 t1_iuf9yso wrote

Exactly. There is such a misunderstanding of what the inflation and deflation pressures are. Global trade was incredibly deflationary and it’s falling apart.

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nvanderw t1_iueowz6 wrote

Well, I am pouring money into I-bonds just in case this is the new reality. Things can change quickly within 2-3 years though, and go back to the status quo of the previous decade. Time will tell.

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babihrse t1_iuhygj0 wrote

China doesn't wanna work for pennies soldering cheap lights anymore China is also going through massive issues of its own. So stuff gets expensive quick. You've gotten it spot on. The best years are all gone behind us.

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Deviusoark t1_iuete40 wrote

See I think the opposite. I think that since the debt to gdp ratio is so much higher that things could be much worse this time around. We truthfully don't know of inflation will continue to rise or not.

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RealMcGonzo t1_iufow62 wrote

There are a lot more headwinds. Instead of globalization, we have deglobalization. The first world has a population that has past its peak earning potential. Population growth worldwide is slowing.

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babihrse t1_iuhypbc wrote

That's not a bad thing. It's catastrophic for pensions and retirements but on the whole the planet is having trouble sustaining people

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