notausername86 t1_iu4wv96 wrote on October 28, 2022 at 4:00 PM

I don't think so. I think we still have a long way to fall. I don't even think the markets have seen all that much pain...not yet anyways...

I think people are not listening to j pow. He clearly said he isn't going to stop until inflation is under control, and it's not even close to being under control. He clearly said he wants to "destory demand" and demand is still there. I understand people are getting the idea that the fed is going to pivot, because "other countries are doing it" but that goes against everything j pow has been saying for the last year. I think a pivot now would destory the feds credibility, and in the longer term if they pivot now, the underlying issues are still there and we are just continuing to kick the can down the road.

I think we are going to see a a general uptrend over the next week until the 2ed. Then I honestly think that a 100 bps is likely, and then the market is going to inexplicably rally, right until midterms, and then we will continue the downtrend. I think the big crash will occur sometime after midterms. I'm projecting the end of Nov beginning of Dec.

But I'm just a regard. So who knows.

imperator285 t1_iu5fna4 wrote on October 28, 2022 at 6:04 PM

End of nov/early dec sounds about right since anyone with gains for the year (and even people with net losses) are going to begin tax loss Harvesting

notausername86 t1_iu5hian wrote on October 28, 2022 at 6:17 PM

Yea that is part of my reasoning in my thought process. I also think late nov/ early Dec b/c depending on the outcome of the elections, there will be a couple weeks of sideways trading, or potentially a rally so whom ever wins can go "see, the economy is great now!" Before it just tanks. Also earnings have been lack luster and I doubt the earnings in Nov are gonna be much better

agilmore1080 OP t1_iu5rs1i wrote on October 28, 2022 at 7:27 PM

If the GOP wins congress they'll probably start threatening the debt ceiling as well. That's always good for a significant market drop in a normal economy. God only knows what kind of effect that'll have in this one.