Submitted by agilmore1080 t3_yfqooz in wallstreetbets
Amazon completely shit the bed yesterday and Apple's earnings didn't exactly light the world on fire but I guess everyone woke up and just hit the freaking buy button and it's all based on this idea that the Fed is going to signal a pivot next week. I'm sorry but I just don't buy it and I'm betting heavily against it. Maybe I'm wrong but do you guys seriously think we've hit bottom for the year?
But how much better are they actually looking? This is from a Reuter's article, "U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday after data showed underlying inflation pressures remain elevated and suggested the Federal Reserve will keep its aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 6.2% in the 12 months through September to match the prior month's rise. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, advanced 5.1% annually after increasing 4.9% in August."
If the Fed signals a pivot next week there is going to be a blow the roof off rally which will completely undercut what they are trying to do. I'm starting to believe anything is possible but if that's what they do then they truly are completely incompetent and Biden should fire Powell's ass right after the mid-terms.
>It's starting to feel like we going to see another 75 bps rate hike but they will say that things are looking better for the future than they were last month. Pivot early next year.
Canada went with 50 instead of the expected 75, but indicated more to come.
Definitely not concrete, but everyone over the barrel already has been lubed for months, so the bank of Canada could have done whatever they wanted and we'd barely notice the additional amount of cock rings they're wearing.
I don't believe this rally is anything but artificial. We have to get past the mid-term elections before things get back to being real.
I don't think so. I think we still have a long way to fall. I don't even think the markets have seen all that much pain...not yet anyways...
I think people are not listening to j pow. He clearly said he isn't going to stop until inflation is under control, and it's not even close to being under control. He clearly said he wants to "destory demand" and demand is still there. I understand people are getting the idea that the fed is going to pivot, because "other countries are doing it" but that goes against everything j pow has been saying for the last year. I think a pivot now would destory the feds credibility, and in the longer term if they pivot now, the underlying issues are still there and we are just continuing to kick the can down the road.
I think we are going to see a a general uptrend over the next week until the 2ed. Then I honestly think that a 100 bps is likely, and then the market is going to inexplicably rally, right until midterms, and then we will continue the downtrend. I think the big crash will occur sometime after midterms. I'm projecting the end of Nov beginning of Dec.
But I'm just a regard. So who knows.
End of nov/early dec sounds about right since anyone with gains for the year (and even people with net losses) are going to begin tax loss Harvesting
Yea that is part of my reasoning in my thought process. I also think late nov/ early Dec b/c depending on the outcome of the elections, there will be a couple weeks of sideways trading, or potentially a rally so whom ever wins can go "see, the economy is great now!" Before it just tanks. Also earnings have been lack luster and I doubt the earnings in Nov are gonna be much better
If the GOP wins congress they'll probably start threatening the debt ceiling as well. That's always good for a significant market drop in a normal economy. God only knows what kind of effect that'll have in this one.
Have a look at the diesel and heating oil shortage. What will that do to cause more inflation? How about the strong GDP report? How about housing prices and rent staying high? Unemployment staying low? There are a lot of signals flashing green for the fed to continue to tighten. Even when they’re done, do you think they will immediately flood the market with easy money again? I just read that 50% of Americans have cut retirement contributions because of inflation. The market is facing every imaginable headwind at the moment, but rallying anyway. It’s fake.
Today's market move has just got to be algorithms. There is no way the earnings this week with the previous Fed statements warrant a +2% move in the S&P and Nasdaq. If it continues until the FOMC announcement next week they may jump to a 100 and telegraph another 100 in December.
Cool story. Show us your position.
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this fed pivot narrative everyone is trying to wish into reality is causing the opposite affect and will make everything lose value longer.
reality: "better than expected GDP"
regards on hopium: "Fed pivot incoming"
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>I do not think we have hit bottom for the year. The Fed may signal a pivot next week, but I believe that there is more downside to come.
Dismay -> Believe -> FOMO -> Dump.
We are in stage 1 of this bear rally.
We will have hit bottom when Apple investors capitulate. Then people will realize that a recession without the printer going brrrrrrrrrr is not so great. But beware bear market rallies
This year's bottom....maybe.
next year's bottom will likely be much lower.
Markets tend to find bottom AFTER the fed is finished cutting rates,not when the cuts begin.
At this point it seems clear that inflation indicators are still flashing and continued rate increases at least until Q2 2023 are needed.
With that said, I'm not sure the FED's decision making is so purely focused on actually defeating inflation, even if it should be.
These are (selfish) human beings and if stopping rate hikes too early becomes good for them personally I think they would bend to pressure even if the consequence was runaway inflation. It worries me.
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Fed not pivoting yet …. Timber …!
7.53% is just a tragic day
Everyone is having blue balls when they can’t hit the buy button every few days…… if that dickhead says anything thing nice we will fly.
Yep , unless midterms disappoint. Right now everyone betting on a red wave if that doesn't happen ,we drop below where we just left, like way below.
No offense, but there is no way this rally is dependent on a "red wave" with a Democrat in the White House. It's not like they are going to pick up a veto proof majority in the Senate. If anything, good chance Republicans start threatening the debt ceiling as soon as they win. That tanks the market in a stable economy. Can't even imagine what that would do here.
Well just visited brokerage about 6 weeks ago and this was his take on things. He said Biden was pressing the gas while the fed was pushing the breakes,that's what was causing the problems in the market. If a red majority win the house and senate it will stop excessive spending " Taking the foot off the Gas" I was thinking about what he said about two weeks ago and just went all in and so far so good. I will hold through the midterms and then either hold or sell and hold cash. Not advise.
If that were true this would be a national issue. But it's not, it's a global issue. Is Biden causing inflation in Europe? Australia? The United Kingdom? Turkey? South America? Japan? This is about a half dozen global issues converging at once.
The only answer I can give on that is the world run on oil , it doesn't matter how badly all these places want to go green and stop producing oil they can't and this is what they are learning the hard way right now and yes when you print a ton of money it creates inflation . So yes the world follows US in alot of cases especially being that oil uses the US dollar . If we added all the things that changed when Biden took a hard line on oil along with so many others we would see a big difference.
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NotoriousJDO t1_iu4pz0p wrote
It's starting to feel like we going to see another 75 bps rate hike but they will say that things are looking better for the future than they were last month. Pivot early next year.