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Zexis8 t1_iuh95mq wrote

Buy after crash not before

51

BleachedTaint t1_iuhlaey wrote

The clowns in here talking about green energy have no idea what they’re talking about. Oil is going nowhere but up and all their green bullshit is only helping it. If you put your money in oil today you will do very well. This is not the top.

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mywifesBF69 t1_iuhwj67 wrote

Green energy efficiency has not advanced to the point where it is practical. Fossil fuels will be necessary for the next 20-50 years. The countries attempting to adopt green tech now are fucked. It is almost guaranteed green energy tech 20 years from now will look nothing like current technogy. So any current investments in wind or solar are basically throwing money away. Probably the workable future is a combination of improvements in power transmission (from power plant to destination) and nuclear energy is some way shape or form.

3

BojackPferd t1_iuib90d wrote

I disagree. Why would green tech look any different in 20 years? The only two possible ways that could happen is a massive cost reduction of geothermal or a fusion power breaktrough. Nuclear energy is in no way competitive at all, there is no business case for nuclear energy at the slightest, since the power plants are more expensive to operate and to build and financially very risky to build compared to all alternatives. Furthermore nuclear fuel requires more and more energy to mine and refine, which means costs only rise, at the same time nuclear only becomes worse and worse for the environment since the amount of pollution for building the plants, tearing them down, maintenance and the uranium fuel pollution and energy used for the fuel just gets higher and higher. Now lets assume a fusion power breaktrough indeed does happen, it would still take another decade to build the first plants and then many more decades to replace all the existing coal, gas and nuclear power plants. Only then at the very end and only IF fusion power was very cheap, (unlikely, although its costs would decline slowly over the decades) could it possibly replace wind or solar. WInd and solar have DECLINING costs over time. And the introduction of green hydrogen into industrial production will massively accelerate this, its in fact already being accelerated from it. Since there are big syngeries to get from combining hydrogen with volatile renewable energy production. You are right that power transmission improvements are essential.. however those are already underway in large scale and really can only do so much. Fossil fuels will remain necessary for the next 100 or more years unless something drastical happens.

1

cheaptissueburlap t1_iuh8p7f wrote

Because they know better than buying the top of a cycle.

When all mms were pushing ong 3months ago it was obvious

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Ancient_Implement_30 t1_iuhnock wrote

Yep. It’s at a peak. Energy was good in 2020. Now most stocks are up 5X

5

northdancer t1_iujcumy wrote

Even after the past two years, I think energy only makes up 5% of the S&P which is far, far off its historical average. S&P is still like 25% technology.

Ask yourself in a year's time if energy is still only going to make up 5% of the S&P.

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[deleted] t1_iuh8q54 wrote

[removed]

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InterestingHurry1834 OP t1_iuh95mm wrote

That makes a lot of sense.

4

Ancient_Implement_30 t1_iuhnv0y wrote

If you look specifically at oil. Oil correlation with oil stocks. Oil has pulled back from $110 to the $80s. While oil stocks have gone higher.

So the stocks are high with great quarterly earnings. But these will slow 20-30% in Q1. But oil companies are projecting more growth. Which will fail.

6

chomponthebit t1_iuhzvgm wrote

Oil stocks aren’t moving with oil because 1. Biden gave oil subsidies to everyone in the short term via Strategic Reserve (remember, elections coming up, and cheap energy helps); 2. Biden’s gonna have to refill the SR buy buying from oil companies in the medium- to long term; 3. The drive for ESG and general hate-on for fossil fuels means no funding which leads to no exploration which leads to supply issues which leads to parabolic energy prices which leads to oil companies mooning in the mid- to long term, and 4. why would oil companies waste finances on exploration when the West is dead-set on green energy and trying to put them out of business? Thus, demand will FAR outstrip supply. This is inevitable.

O&G is a 5-10 year investment: automate your dividend reinvestment and let supply and demand issues play out

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Ancient_Implement_30 t1_iuihwlh wrote

Wow.. why the fuck are you talking about. Oil reserves? Anyone who thinks this matters at ALL is a moron. They do not look at the numbers.

Headline! “Biden to release 15M barrels of oil from reserves”

Fact US oil consumption per day 19.7M.

Oil reserves being released is a political move that does nothing to true supply and demand.

I am not even going to get into ESG.. There is plenty of facts out there to disprove your thesis. Just baffled by your logic.

−8

Grand_Inquisitor_Nel t1_iujiam5 wrote

In the end, it’s not about what makes sense but rather who to bet your investments against by what you believe makes sense. This is the way.

1

243james t1_iuhy146 wrote

So why are other parts rallying which don't make money and have high debt,???????

2

Grape_Ape1980 t1_iuh8mqg wrote

I’m already in on calls for oil through December. Republicans will do whatever they can to kill green deals once they take over after midterms. Watch oil go up if republicans take control next week.

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BleachedTaint t1_iuhl1a1 wrote

lol sure that’s why

3

Grand_Inquisitor_Nel t1_iujilyq wrote

But we’re in a recession. All the infighting could drive the recession sooner, taking oil with the collapse.

2

BleachedTaint t1_iujjj18 wrote

Oil’s going nowhere but up. Republicans holding office will cause it go down. This is historically true.

4

t16104 t1_iui571r wrote

Im doing nothing but energy stocks. Both gas and oil

7

Malhar4 t1_iuhp7lx wrote

OXY Calls are where it’s at!

5

budleeroy t1_iuhnp9z wrote

Oil will go back up over 150 a barrel when the big crash comes. As the dollar gets weaker oil goes higher. Valero is what I would buy.

4

WestTexasCrude t1_iuico98 wrote

Buy high? Pass. You remember a few months back when oil was negative right?

4

somo1230 t1_iuhy7mi wrote

You should bought them before the wave moves up

I bought mine in 2020 dumping most in 2021

You are too late and you don't want to do nasdaq guys mistakes

3

Chuu t1_iui1bdl wrote

Look at XLE's chart. It's up 60% ytd. People are absolutely buying energy stocks.

3

BukkakeTemperateRain t1_iuh9345 wrote

I was buying oil stocks when oil was selling at $-17 a barrel because I thought the near to midterm return would be high since that price is unsustainable. Now that oil prices have recovered to $93 a barrel and the world is trying to shift away from oil I don't feel the long term prospects are good.

If you wanted to buy oil stocks, 2020 was the year at this point you're just asking to be a bag holder in a few years.

2

StuartMcNight t1_iuhaqyt wrote

You know what you need to be able to do a green energy transition?

Yup… tons of energy . Do you know any sources of that easily available and with the necessary infrastructure to make use of it?

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Ancient_Implement_30 t1_iuho0cj wrote

So correct. Don’t know why you are getting so many down votes. Now is the time to buy tech stocks that have good balance sheets.

2

BukkakeTemperateRain t1_iuj5evx wrote

Seeing as this is wallstreet bets I'm sure it's a bunch of people who bought Energy after it already surged and are upset I'm saying that's not a great idea.

2

InterestingHurry1834 OP t1_iuh9a4v wrote

But some energy companies are shifting towards other energy sources apart from oil

1

DiamondNuts69 t1_iuh9mor wrote

Other energy sources are not as profitable as oil

4

augustus331 t1_iuhm4hh wrote

I work in the renewable industry and stating that any fossil-fuel is more profitable than solar-PV or wind for that matter is not true.

The cost for renewables has come down from $380/MWh for solar in 2009 to around $40 in 2019, which is steadily dropping due to compound innovation and accelerated adoption.

I can't stress enough to conclude, that oil, gas, coal, lignite, wood, are not more profitable or economically sound (even when disregarding environmental damage, which we shouldn't), and they never again will be more profitable.

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DiamondNuts69 t1_iuhofip wrote

I work in wind. The company that I work for is -2Billion in profit in Q3.

2

augustus331 t1_iuhq124 wrote

Alright, so how does that work, then?

Cost per MWh/KWh should be lower than hydrocarbon alternatives.

The losses are from CAPEX and scale-ups, or is the manner of production infeasible? If you can share, you don't have to name names ofc.

4

BukkakeTemperateRain t1_iuh9rma wrote

True, but I don't find those prospects to be all that appealing. Personally if I'm investing in companies with a 7-10 Price Earnings ratio I don't want to see them dumping their money into R&D into a highly speculative field, I'd rather see that money get returned to me.

I fear that investment into alternative forms of energy are simply the companies death throes and I'll never see a return on my investment.

3

Iceman29808 t1_iuh9z8p wrote

Energy stocks will likely start to peak in the coming months and markets are forward looking.

2

inquisitive_reviews t1_iuhax60 wrote

There is a possibility of windfall taxes, since some of the German energy companies are doing very good business this year, but a windfall tax has been already planned.

Another possibility is green washing, a lot of people do not want to give money to energy companies using fossil fuels.

2

Trader_santa t1_iuhcb7w wrote

Energy has a limited upside, The strength Of The economy. Thats why, and bonds are just better value currently. Once bond yields fall or economy strengthens, energy stocks are worth looking at

2

Able_Excuse_4456 t1_iuhhmd4 wrote

Future earnings are priced into the shares about 1.6 seconds after an analyst declares an estimate. Current prices are already assuming another windfall quarter or two for U.S. Energy companies. My sense is that educated investors (which I am not) don't believe that the best is yet to come.

2

kaiserfiume t1_iuhk9i2 wrote

Because The Stonk is +10% in premarket!!! LFG!!! 🚀🚀🚀

2

Valkanaa t1_iuhsjio wrote

I remember selling some, if they get cheap again I may buy, currently they are not

2

sjm1227 t1_iui4806 wrote

Honestly someone needs to get DTC/Solo Stove stock up. Seriously under valued and could easily go on a bill run.

2

Such-Wrongdoer-2198 t1_iui505h wrote

Spy -20% from peak. Down for 11 months.

XLE down 2% from peak. Down for 4 months.

2

Few_Complaint88 t1_iuigmy2 wrote

All the raw dog moguls are pushing all the milk out the teet before things shift over and they'll spend a few million doing so in order to gain their 100

2

nullkommanullvier t1_iuiqgth wrote

In Europe there is massive uncertainty because eu is planning to cut the profits of energy corporations. As i have read in some comments that renewable energies will not be able to compete with fossil energy sources it has tobe said that there are lots of renewable energy corporations in the hydro or wind businees wihch are profitable and dont need any fuels to be powered.

2

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1

jtmarlinintern t1_iuhafva wrote

Buffet has a longer time horizon than most, as he will be patient, he is probably looking at what normalized values look over a cycle. I don't know enough about the sector, but you may be right, and contrarians make a lot of money when they are right

1

TopMagician6574 t1_iuhzm9k wrote

Same reason why energy companies aren’t investing in themselves and spending money on new exploration. The writing is on the wall.

0

Popular-Pollution-29 t1_iuh8js1 wrote

Oil isn't a long term investment, government is going fully green.

−7

BleachedTaint t1_iuhl2bz wrote

wrong

1

Popular-Pollution-29 t1_iuhmtag wrote

How am I wrong?

1

BleachedTaint t1_iuhn1vt wrote

The government’s green agenda has done nothing but increase oil’s value. Oil will continue to increase. “Fully green” is a scam and will not happen.

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Popular-Pollution-29 t1_iuhoe3e wrote

I agree its a scam, but social security is a scam and its still there. Fully green will happen and everyone will just have to adjust.

Oil value will increase short term, less capex into the traditional energy sector. If oil companies don't see a future for reinvesting in the business, as an investor I see no future.

1