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Royal-Tough4851 t1_iuhfw1a wrote

I think going short at this price has its merits. I personally would’ve waited for the Fed on Wednesday. You miss the initially move, but at least you’ll get confirmation on you market tanking back down before jumping onboard. If the Fed says anything about pausing future rate hikes your puts are toast

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The_way_2_tendies t1_iuhs52x wrote

Based off past speech comments, I believe we have yet to hit the levels for certain data they base decisions on. Since those numbers are still slowly ticking up and holding steady over the months. I believe they will hike an additional 75bps in order to “try and tame inflation “ As they’ve stated prior they want to see job losses and pain before they decide to slow or pause hikes. I believe we’re looking at hikes until January before they reflect on market conditions/ data. From there depending on conditions, they’ll either continue the hikes / lower the hike % or take pause to reflect.

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CSkahn t1_iuiqygl wrote

Wide iron condors or strangles are the play imo. I don't think we're getting much new information tomorrow.

75 bp hike this month and 50 bp hike in December. Already priced in, metrics are generally trending in the right direction, and the hikes take time to make their way through the system.

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Automatic-One-9175 t1_iuhkmw2 wrote

Which they just might.

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Congo_King t1_iuhqc6o wrote

Based on what?

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Evening_Cut4422 t1_iui9i55 wrote

Liquidity crisis happening across the worldimg

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Arguablecoyote t1_iuiagr6 wrote

Isn’t low liquidity how you get inflation under control? And that was the goal of the rate hikes? But now it’s a crisis while inflation is still above 8%? I don’t understand any of this. Seems like people just got addicted to free money and are throwing a hissy fit now that it’s drying up.

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Evening_Cut4422 t1_iuibjb2 wrote

Not really, the whole point of this inflation is supply constraint on oil and food thanks to russia. You can stop demand by lowering liquidity on paper, but it doest work in the real world. You are gonna have to eat and transport goods everyday which is fuel by oil and food, fed hiking mortages to 8%, making everyones 401k -60%, crashing a few central bank does help you get more food and oil it makes the inflation issue goes rampant untill a depression occurs and people have no choice cuz they cant even eat and work.

On the global liquidity problem, china, japan, saudi have 1 - 3% inflation when US raise fed rates to 4% and mortage rates to 8% they have to follow leading up to 9% in mortage rate(which most of their people uses flexi rates) and 5% (business loan rates) which slows down the economy making people jobless and starts a defualt cascade. They are over the point of paying the for the US mistakes and have been offloading their USD and tbills, no one is paying for bidens mistake when their people are suffering

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