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Swiftnice t1_iua9k41 wrote

Invest in cardboard boxes.

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UserNameTycoon OP t1_iuaa9z6 wrote

Cardboard boxes are too risky right now with inflation and changes to forestry policy. I want empty boarded up buildings.

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SateliteDicPic t1_iubo826 wrote

There aren’t many tools available to retail investors that would allow you to short commercial RE (that I’m aware of) however I would think shorting or buying puts in a commercial RE REIT might be about as close as you can get? Jim Chanos initiated a major short on the two large data center REITS not too long ago. If you research his thesis it is compelling.

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doublejay1999 t1_iuaewby wrote

I like this as an idea.

The problem is, the entire 'system' will move heaven & earth to avoid it - as least here in the UK where so much personal prosperity is dependent on realty only going up.

the biggest threat is working from home, and the UK government have already spoken a couple of times about getting back to the office, post Covid (in the name of protecting small retail, which is BS)

i'm sure you are already onto this, but basically :

  • if people work from home, the requirement for city centre footprint for business is reduced.
  • corps will have absolutely no hesitation in reducing their office space, getting the cost off their balance sheet
  • this will result is a large oversupply of space, driving commercial prices down.
  • because people no longer need to live a commutable distance from the city, there is a huge knock on effect for domestic real estate. who needs to pay a premium to live near the office ? so...
  • house prices crash, landlords (with risings interest rates) are double fucked, and since buy-to-let is a major source of private pensions, they would be destitute in old age

practically speaking , working from home could bring the economy down. not to its knees, but face down in the dirt, and I fully expect conversation between government and major corps to have taken place already on this subject.

so, finding solid way to short commercial real estate sound like a jolly decent idea to me.

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Spare-Competition-91 t1_iudjmaa wrote

Yeah, it's so funny how these companies and government work hand-in-hand to keep this sham of an economy going up and up. After reading, The Crash Course, and having my own thoughts on the subject before reading it, I can see this society, and the world economy, crashing worse than we've ever seen in human history within the next 10-15 years.

My bet, is that we go through another few waves, get a recession. Then boom, 10 years we get a major spike, and then at some point after that we lose everything before 2040.

1

1_pinkyinnose_1inazz t1_iuac3bc wrote

Check out the ticker DRV - I’ve made some sweet returns from this lately

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UserNameTycoon OP t1_iuad6qc wrote

Thank you I will look this up and provide my DD for this and PSA to your replies.

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VisualMod t1_iua98sw wrote

>That sounds like a very risky investment, but if you're confident in your ability to pick winners then more power to you. I would recommend doing plenty of research before putting any money down, and as always, remember to diversify your portfolio to mitigate risk. Good luck!

3

UserNameTycoon OP t1_iuaaiol wrote

Not my plan. I am ready to take my bet. I don’t see any ability for these leveraged companies able to pay their debt payments.

The largest hotel in my mid-major city is under bankruptcy proceedings.

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UserNameTycoon OP t1_iuaanjv wrote

Sorry meant to reply to you - I’m asking how I can do it? Where can I get lists of “options” to buy in this business segment?

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[deleted] t1_iuaacus wrote

[deleted]

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Next-Ad3054 t1_iuagejz wrote

Usually public storage does well in a downturn. Former homeowners gotta put their stuff somewhere as they downsize or head behind Wendy’s.

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UserNameTycoon OP t1_iuay0o1 wrote

That’s a good call. Part of my DD will consider the exposure to real estate that would benefit from this change. I think the focus for the short is leveraged companies with exposure to downtown hotels and downtown commercial/office properties.

1

DA2710 t1_iuamr0g wrote

Puts on MMI. Their revenue depends on massive volume of commercial real state deals

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indonesian_activist t1_iubhn1w wrote

$EWRE Puts, They are the one of the only real estate etfs with significant commerical real estate exposure, all the others are mostly dominated by american tower/telecom infra companies.

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VisualMod t1_iua981x wrote

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1

Grand_Inquisitor_Nel t1_iuc9j3y wrote

DRV, REIT, you’d have to short Zillow or Redfin individually.

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jcodes57 t1_iucc0do wrote

Why commercial specifically and not residential?

0

pragmojo t1_iucv177 wrote

People gotta live somewhere they don’t have to buy things in stores or work in offices

1