CRWD Guidence

Submitted by Whitebrown22 t3_z8cvmc in wallstreetbets

CRWD's after hours action seems like a over reaction. They beat on EPS and revenue. Yes they guided lower, but on the low end of their guidance their only 14.8 million below consensus. But even at the low end of their guidance they'll still be experiencing huge growth YOY. Can someone smarter then me tell me what I'm missing?

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Extra-War5479 t1_iyb0sxm wrote

If Powell's speech doesn't fuck up the market tomorrow, it'll have a decent rally and momentum from the market, and the overreaction that's happened overnight.

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KevtheKnife t1_iyb0mvn wrote

Like most Tech growth stocks, it was already priced for perfection and any blemish leads to a massive overreaction and good buying opportunity.

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Extra-War5479 t1_iyazyhb wrote

It is a massive overreaction, although earnings for next quarter are estimated to be lower than the forecast, the year over year revenue is still in line with estimates, and eps is higher this quarter and next. They've come in at the higher end of estimates for revenue if not beat most of the time, so I doubt they'd miss the revenue estimate by that much. Currently they're expected to miss next quarter revenue by about 1%, I don't see how it falls this hard.

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I think it'll rally, and end being like 7-8% down tomorrow. The 20% drop isn't justified.

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Extra-War5479 t1_iyb08wk wrote

There are plenty of other companies who have lowered forecasts, fell sharply, and rebounded. Although not too many have fallen by 20% over this type of forecast.

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I remember Zoom fell last week after earnings reported weaker forecasts about 9-11%, and then rallied to a 7% drop next morning. Ended the day weaker, but rallied the next few days slightly.

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Whitebrown22 OP t1_iyb0ugv wrote

Yes this makes sense. Nothing about the report made me think it deserved to fall this hard after hours

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Extra-War5479 t1_iyb1xny wrote

NetApp misses revenue, and lowers guidance, but only 10% down...

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7smokes t1_iybaw9v wrote

Crazy part is their fy2023 guidance was higher than previously announced

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DevilDog82nd t1_iyb7w7d wrote

I mean people said the same thing in April. Was that over reaction. It never recovered that huge drop.

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robbinhood69 t1_iyd1f61 wrote

what u r seeing is a major fund, who is probably concentrated on tech, and is down bad, saying "oh fuck i better gtfo out of this before everyone else does"

except "everyone else" is also tech focused funds that all CRWD'ed in the same 69 tech names during 2020-2021 and is also now facing existential risk as their LP's r wondering why they are paying 2/20 to get fucked raw when they could be doing it on their own

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VisualMod t1_iyayv23 wrote

>What you are missing is that CRWD's guidance for the future is lower than what analysts were expecting. This means that the company's growth will not be as strong as expected, and investors are selling off the stock in reaction to this news.

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