Submitted by DaddyDersch t3_z86uqt in wallstreetbets
Well today was yet another day of unexpected volatility but a nice movement from level to level.
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With the green open I noted in my pre market analysis that we would most likely come back down to 395 and if we loss that that 393.7 was my button range support for today and spy played that out perfectly.
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I was looking for a bigger breakdown on tesla during my pre market analysis today as we were holding onto that 184.8 magnet level. However, I said unless we get a new volatility support level we should expect a break down to 176.7. But we saw a 182.5 support level come in and now we should look for 182.5 to 184.8 to be our new magnet on Tesla.
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My intentions today was to play puts overnight for the economic data and JPOW speech tomorrow however, I saw too much of a bullish case on SPY to warrant puts overnight. I considered a straddle but im not sure if we will get a big enough movement to make it worth the capital risked.
We saw the daily 8ema confirmed as resistance and we broke down o that key 393.7 support level (from the 15min volatility) and that’s as low as we went today. With that EOD recovery and closure back over 395.2 we are actually seeing a potential that we are still trading within that same 395.2 to 399.2 area that we have been trading in for the last 2 weeks.
This doji after 3 red days could set us up with that 395.2 closure for a move back towards 399.2 tomorrow. However, if this economic data comes in rough and depending on what JPOW says tomorrow at 130pm we really could see 390 or we could see 402.5 tomorrow. I don’t have a strong feeling either way besides I think JPOW continues to be far more bearish than the markets want to believe.
Support- 395.2 -> 392.6 -> 390.1
Resistance- 399.2 -> 402.5
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Futures with a similar break down but held its 3955 support level from the last two weeks very nicely. We have now had 6 attempts to close below 3955 over the last 12 trading days and all have failed. Until we see 3955 support break and we close below that I do struggle to believe in a bigger bear case.
Support- 3955 -> 3935 -> 3910
Resistance- 4020 -> 4040
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Tesla is a tough one here as I really do see a bear case and a bull case.
For the bear case we rejected at 185.2 for the 2nd day in the last 3 trading days. This is the 5th rejection at 185.2 in the last 8 trading days. As you can see highlighted in blue we are in this overall bull channel here but we are rejecting at the bigger macro falling wedge here in red. This is our 2nd day of rejecting the falling wedge resistance without breaking through.
However for the bull case we attempted and for a while we were looking like we would break through 180 support and close below that which would have resulted in a bearish engulfing daily candle. Despite the closure below the daily 8ema failure to have a meaningful sell off today and to lose that key 180 support does open more upside.
Key support- 180 -> 173.6
Key resistance- 185.1 -> 190.8
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The VIX did a whole lot of nothing today. Holding within yesterdays range pretty much all day but it did close below its daily 8ema support again. The VIX does not really give us any sort of direction either. These 3 dojis in a row show indecision in the market and show that we very well could with todays gravestone doji see the VIX unwind tomorrow and look to gap fill at 21.11. However, with JPOW speech tomorrow and with all the economic data tomorrow we very well could see the VIX move up and possibly even touch that bear channel resistance at 22.7 tomorrow. However, in order to be full bear I would like to see a closure over the daily 20ema which should be near 23.61 tomorrow. 23.6 also happens to be our lower channel resistance level too. Breaking back over 23.6 opens up a move to 28.5 area.
$5k/10% challenge-
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The challenge continues to go well putting in a smaller win again this morning of only 8% though.
Daily log-
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Overall today was a great day. I had another great day with scalps… im currently on streak of 14 wins in a row on my scalps over a two week time frame…
I got burnt in both spy and tesla calls this morning when that rogue 1030am hour long $4 drop came in. But that’s where stop losses are key and save us on flash crashes like that.
Other then that I was able to get some nice smaller wins today with the only other loser coming from Tesla calls playing the 180 support bounce but unfortunately was stopped out on the fake breakdown at the start of power hour only for the position to have gone green again (had I held).
Overall really a great day with no complaints.
YOUTUBE will be up later tonight.
Fun_Bed9734 t1_iya4xvj wrote
395 held. I have my strangle for 400c/391p for SPY for tomorrow's data and JPow's speech. Have some cash left to go with whatever direction we go after that speech/Q&A. All signs are pointing to him being conservative and reiterating what other Feds have said, "there's a long way to go still". I just don't understand the pause narrative that some market participants are believing in. That's probably not coming anytime soon