11-29-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Daily Market Analysis

Submitted by DaddyDersch t3_z86uqt in wallstreetbets

Well today was yet another day of unexpected volatility but a nice movement from level to level.

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https://preview.redd.it/dspf624oky2a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=418c64d70c98ab4ccb82b333273f132db65becf3

With the green open I noted in my pre market analysis that we would most likely come back down to 395 and if we loss that that 393.7 was my button range support for today and spy played that out perfectly.

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https://preview.redd.it/sjgek2moky2a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7f953c6d88e7160f49022e94d2a0d57f4494485

I was looking for a bigger breakdown on tesla during my pre market analysis today as we were holding onto that 184.8 magnet level. However, I said unless we get a new volatility support level we should expect a break down to 176.7. But we saw a 182.5 support level come in and now we should look for 182.5 to 184.8 to be our new magnet on Tesla.

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https://preview.redd.it/iliq166pky2a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7f61f43eb7d927a5d3cc68fb662e22e7cb9e99d

My intentions today was to play puts overnight for the economic data and JPOW speech tomorrow however, I saw too much of a bullish case on SPY to warrant puts overnight. I considered a straddle but im not sure if we will get a big enough movement to make it worth the capital risked.

We saw the daily 8ema confirmed as resistance and we broke down o that key 393.7 support level (from the 15min volatility) and that’s as low as we went today. With that EOD recovery and closure back over 395.2 we are actually seeing a potential that we are still trading within that same 395.2 to 399.2 area that we have been trading in for the last 2 weeks.

This doji after 3 red days could set us up with that 395.2 closure for a move back towards 399.2 tomorrow. However, if this economic data comes in rough and depending on what JPOW says tomorrow at 130pm we really could see 390 or we could see 402.5 tomorrow. I don’t have a strong feeling either way besides I think JPOW continues to be far more bearish than the markets want to believe.

Support- 395.2 -> 392.6 -> 390.1

Resistance- 399.2 -> 402.5

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https://preview.redd.it/2y9sbaopky2a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=155e7c2376c1f651461d523ba2bde36ef72b5137

Futures with a similar break down but held its 3955 support level from the last two weeks very nicely. We have now had 6 attempts to close below 3955 over the last 12 trading days and all have failed. Until we see 3955 support break and we close below that I do struggle to believe in a bigger bear case.

Support- 3955 -> 3935 -> 3910

Resistance- 4020 -> 4040

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https://preview.redd.it/qcp1v28qky2a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=82910c2fdff5918e6b33ca72feb9b61a279642e5

Tesla is a tough one here as I really do see a bear case and a bull case.

For the bear case we rejected at 185.2 for the 2nd day in the last 3 trading days. This is the 5th rejection at 185.2 in the last 8 trading days. As you can see highlighted in blue we are in this overall bull channel here but we are rejecting at the bigger macro falling wedge here in red. This is our 2nd day of rejecting the falling wedge resistance without breaking through.

However for the bull case we attempted and for a while we were looking like we would break through 180 support and close below that which would have resulted in a bearish engulfing daily candle. Despite the closure below the daily 8ema failure to have a meaningful sell off today and to lose that key 180 support does open more upside.

Key support- 180 -> 173.6

Key resistance- 185.1 -> 190.8

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https://preview.redd.it/sxchwzzrky2a1.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=a67b9c3b3cba5b9c6aee9b093851208d9ce5a7ab

The VIX did a whole lot of nothing today. Holding within yesterdays range pretty much all day but it did close below its daily 8ema support again. The VIX does not really give us any sort of direction either. These 3 dojis in a row show indecision in the market and show that we very well could with todays gravestone doji see the VIX unwind tomorrow and look to gap fill at 21.11. However, with JPOW speech tomorrow and with all the economic data tomorrow we very well could see the VIX move up and possibly even touch that bear channel resistance at 22.7 tomorrow. However, in order to be full bear I would like to see a closure over the daily 20ema which should be near 23.61 tomorrow. 23.6 also happens to be our lower channel resistance level too. Breaking back over 23.6 opens up a move to 28.5 area.

$5k/10% challenge-

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https://preview.redd.it/w3z2gbgsky2a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ffac8677cfa676372f55216535fde808ba1a6a3

The challenge continues to go well putting in a smaller win again this morning of only 8% though.

Daily log-

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https://preview.redd.it/k732yaysky2a1.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=5626533981f34867598bc387d6ce893428296b7e

Overall today was a great day. I had another great day with scalps… im currently on streak of 14 wins in a row on my scalps over a two week time frame…

I got burnt in both spy and tesla calls this morning when that rogue 1030am hour long $4 drop came in. But that’s where stop losses are key and save us on flash crashes like that.

Other then that I was able to get some nice smaller wins today with the only other loser coming from Tesla calls playing the 180 support bounce but unfortunately was stopped out on the fake breakdown at the start of power hour only for the position to have gone green again (had I held).

Overall really a great day with no complaints.

YOUTUBE will be up later tonight.

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1

VisualMod t1_iya21ip wrote

>It is interesting to see how market volatility can lead to such unexpected movements. My analysis of the markets suggests that it would be prudent for investors to exercise caution and take appropriate risk management strategies when making trades, particularly in light of tomorrow's economic data and JPOW speech. It will also be important to watch key support/resistance levels closely as these could indicate whether a bull or bear case may prevail going forward.

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PleasureSoul t1_iya2rdu wrote

Volitility profit for traders this year ;)

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Fun_Bed9734 t1_iya4xvj wrote

395 held. I have my strangle for 400c/391p for SPY for tomorrow's data and JPow's speech. Have some cash left to go with whatever direction we go after that speech/Q&A. All signs are pointing to him being conservative and reiterating what other Feds have said, "there's a long way to go still". I just don't understand the pause narrative that some market participants are believing in. That's probably not coming anytime soon

10

MDA636 t1_iyae4wc wrote

Been following your DD daily. I'm holding quite a few TSLA 160P 12/23 and 12/30. Are you no longer anticipating the possible move down to 154? Or does that all depend on the fed tomorrow?

4

CatchmanJ t1_iyalbio wrote

Thoughts on the Elon Apple hullabaloo?

1

sahbatage t1_iyali19 wrote

I could see Jpow reiterating a generally hawkish narrative but then opposing data Thursday/Friday that reenergizes the market going into FOMC and CPI.

General question -when you say, for example, “if SPY breaks resistance or support of X, then I expect Y to happen”, does that apply to AH or pre-market as well or does it hold more weight if it happens during trading hours?

Edit: Also, what’s that level Tesla needs to open under to maintain the bear channel? 182.5?

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Unique_Mastodon5855 t1_iyaqwg6 wrote

I entered some AMD strangles for GDP data just before close. Hopefully the opening price is strong enough to book small profits then I will enter QQQ strangles about 15 minutes before JPow speaks.

For all interested, I was listening to Barrons podcast and they had Bullard on. He couldn’t give exact answers but when asked about rate hikes he said “the market is underpricing the aggressiveness that the fed needs to take to get inflation under control” when asked if that meant another 75bp hike he said “I’ve always been an advocate of policy that has an impact sooner rather than later”.

Take that for what you will just thought is put it out there.

5

Fun_Bed9734 t1_iyaxn0i wrote

Replying to BowlSmart9624 (#785,996)

That's why I chose a 391p. It seems the 20ema and 100ema are at 390 and 391 area. Let's see what tomorrow brings. I do believe PCE will show another sign of inflation going down too, but what JPow says will be very important

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DaddyDersch OP t1_iyazgnk wrote

Replying to MDA636 (#781,922)

i still believe the move could be coming but i dont like the relative strength i am seeing and we are nearing that resistance line... tomorrow will be telling honestly

3

DaddyDersch OP t1_iyazpju wrote

Replying to sahbatage (#783,546)

so if its a daily level i like to see the daily candle close below it.... but intraday i use the 15min candle as my trend candles to follow... so say 180 is daily support on tesla... if the 15min breaks through that i consider it broken and eye the next major support.

falling wedge resistance is 184.6 tomorrow

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DaddyDersch OP t1_iyazvig wrote

Replying to Unique_Mastodon5855 (#784,682)

i believe that speech is exactly what caused the last two days of red and has bumped the likelihood of a 75bps from 20% to about 34% as of close...

i agree that the markets are way too dovish... i am just waiting for the CPI that misses that sends us truly spiraling.

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Unique_Mastodon5855 t1_iyb059m wrote

Replying to DaddyDersch (#786,803)

Same, I don’t buy that inflation is done. Just like the market there are peaks and troughs for inflation. 2 barely good months doesn’t make a trend. I’m sticking with CPI strangles until I see a miss then I will go heavier puts.

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Tairfare t1_iybbdfr wrote

This pivot narrative has caused a lot of copium. I wonder who started it... Anyway, I don't see it myself; the most I'd believe in is a pre-FOMC rally cause if we do pivot, they're just going to give me the easiest game plan since last year-long in November SPX puts going into February.

And I don't even want that to happen, all pivot means to me is "fuck recession let's do depression".

4

DaddyDersch OP t1_iybc4ja wrote

Replying to Tairfare (#789,976)

Agreed. Its really annoying how short sighted this market is... just like back in march. We didnt hot straight 100bps hikes which is what we needed. Now look at us.

5

RRSchmidt1971 t1_iybrv83 wrote

Inflation may catch a temporary break with gas prices dropping lately, but it’s still running hot. Add in the massive inventories in retailers forcing discounts already, potential trucking issues, insane levels of credit card debt, low levels of household savings, housing pressure, and you have a recipe for disaster next year. Possible China / Taiwan issue and what a mess. Get your big boy pants on cause it’s gonna get rough.

2

twarr1 t1_iybwe80 wrote

Replying to DaddyDersch (#790,196)

I’ve seen phycology studies that say markets tend to initially under-react to news only to over-react later. I’m thinking this may be a reason for the perceived irrationality we often see.

4

Dargatroll t1_iycai3z wrote

This was very informative. Thank you very much

2