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Flat-Solution8156 t1_iy031z0 wrote

If it drops, Id say you should have played puts. Yet on the other hand, if it goes up, then you should have played calls.

173

bigload8769 t1_iy1vcis wrote

Can I DM you later if I need some good advice for important decisions?

1

_Kenway t1_ixzw6mn wrote

Do you realize that this trendline has been posted at least 5 times in the last 24h ?

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_Hard_Candy_ t1_iy0bd5g wrote

this.

well keep going up since literally everyone is bearish waiting for this trendline to hold.

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juffury3 t1_iy15lcl wrote

Some bears were also screaming for another downleg when we were approaching this trendline (which coincided with the 200 SMA) back in mid august when SPY was approaching 430. We were right.

This bear market rally has lasted for about 1.5 months. The last one lasted about 2 months (before we dove off the cliff and made a new low of 350). Bear markets are all about lower highs and lower lows.

Entering longs at the cusp of this bear market rally is just as dumb as opening shorts after making a new low and several consecutive red weeks.

5

blutch14 t1_iy543ur wrote

You're looking for correlation where there is none, the market reacts off economic data and when we beat estimates this week we're heading to Uranus.

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xxPATCHxBAKKxx t1_ixzkyv0 wrote

One more push then sideways for a week then dump

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igotherb t1_ixzsjb4 wrote

Id say powell speech might be the dump on wed

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Habooboo5 t1_iy0372p wrote

He seemed pretty relaxed in that recording that was posted earlier, he may actually be less bearish than last month

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Leebronjamess t1_iy1jnve wrote

In 2008 we saw the same and then the last rally didn’t quite reach the line before having the big drop. I think this next drop will be the third and final leg down however it will also be the longest and lowest drop of them all before hitting a bottom

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Stock_Man69420 OP t1_ixzlbor wrote

Yea Im gonna wait for my strategy to confirm it and then load up on Puts

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alanzo123 t1_iy0a0g7 wrote

market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it. all of wsb is trigger happy with put buying, market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat.

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juffury3 t1_iy16xok wrote

>market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it

Define everyone? Is your grandma shorting SPY? Any of your siblings or friends? Whenever I tell my friends about put options, they look at me funny. Like I'm regarded or something.

WSB thinks they can speak for all retail and the MMs are constantly monitoring us because we're such an omnipresent force in the market. No, we're a bunch of self declared degenerate regards and nobody gives a shit about us.

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alanzo123 t1_iy1ckwg wrote

traders, everyone who isn’t managing billions

3

juffury3 t1_iy1f10y wrote

All I'm saying is that WSB is a shitty barometer to measure retail or trader sentiment. The majority of the posts here don't even show positions. Just some regard perma bear or bull karma farming.

Also, think about your average WSB redditor. More than likely he's an early to mid 20s guy who's a virgin to trading a bear market. Sure, he lived through 2008, but had no skin in the game. This applies to redditors over at r/stocks too. All they know is "stonks go up". In fact, a majority of WSB came in during 2020 during meme stock mania when trillions in stimulus were injected into the economy.

Boomer retail traders with the most $$$ in stonks don't hang out on reddit, lest of all WSB. Are they "trigger happy with put buying" too? Go ask your parents.

3

Sensitive-Cold-4956 t1_iy1hatv wrote

It’s like an easy layup in basketball, a man wide open down the field in American Football, or an empty net in soccer/hockey. Sure that’s easy for professionals, but most of us would miss.

What percentage of retail traders have ever bought a put? How many are approved, understand the Greeks, and are willing to go? I’d guess it’s insanely low.

I think most are going to baghold to the bottom and continue to DCA. I’m sure some will move some into cash. But this big measurable rush of retail buying puts, I just don’t see it.

And even those of us who are willing to buy these puts, a lot of us are getting scared bc it’s so obvious… this do the opposite of sentiment narrative, which I generally agree with. But if only a tiny percent of retail is actually going to make an active bet here, the act against sentiment argument loses some steam.

1

quesoqueso t1_iy1vjl5 wrote

Shit I am doing both. DCA on my long positions while taking it in the ass and trying to offset some of it with puts at the same time. I'm long and short, so probably highly regarded.

1

dickmidget t1_iy0cp1q wrote

Do MM’s really make THAT much $$$ off of retail buying calls & puts?

It doesn’t seem like much money in comparison to large institutional buyers when it comes to options trading.

I could be wrong but I am genuinely curious.

2

Sensitive-Cold-4956 t1_iy0h15h wrote

I ask this myself. They say 99% of retail is 100% long. Most retail is down way more than the SPY this year.

You ever try to explain to your college educated friends how calls and puts work? They look at you like you’re speaking Arabic. Maybe they can understand calls… but puts? What percentage of retail could buy puts even if they wanted to? Are they even approved through their broker?

I think the more realistic explanation here is that most of retail’s $ is in ETFs in their 401ks, in various longs, and cash. If SPY were to fall off of a cliff, I don’t think the single digit retail who are options approved and willing to press the Put button will matter all that much.

Also sounds like the perfect situation for institutions to take from retail with minimal resistance.

8

dickmidget t1_iy0krg3 wrote

The people I’ve talked to do understand the difference between calls & puts, along with the investment criteria behind such moves. I must confess that I am still learning and trying to evolve in this crazy market.

2

laglory t1_iy29jlx wrote

> market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat.

you realise that "making the market" refers to the process of simultaneous offering of both bid and ask? Market makers don't move the markets, they provide liquidity.

2

RedOctobrrr t1_iy3pkoq wrote

This is the pro guidance you degens need to listen to.

My puts were like 1.5mo out. They're now a few weeks out. Nearly worthless on this make-believe rally.

2

ever-right t1_iy26134 wrote

That's why I'm selling calls. Go ahead. Make the markets flat.

1

JollibeeNo1Customr69 t1_ixzvyae wrote

I find bearish divergences work better when the price is equal to or higher than the previous peak on a lower RSI, assuming the previous peak triggered an Overbought condition on the RSI. That shows there wasn't a much strength behind the new high and is due to come back down again, much like looking at volume. Vice versa for a bullish divergence (you can see this example of bullish divergence when looking at the bottom of the price action and the lower end of the RSI between "2022" and "March", just before the SPY ripped back up to the trendline again- prices went lower/stayed equal, but the RSI was making higher lows on each dip down).

5

safa29 t1_ixzmulw wrote

On the technical yes. I'm in short, AAPL and TSLA need to go lower though.

4

liquefire81 t1_iy0cj5d wrote

Itll do the opposite of what ill do.

4

BETmyhoeonTesla t1_ixzvx1d wrote

Seems like it will, seems like a small little push then dump. I bought some Friday so I should’ve waited

2

Reallyhightweets t1_iy05f5o wrote

Calls on your wife if you follow this advice.

2

BeniSpaghetti t1_iy0dclj wrote

When I reach for the PUT button, my sphincter now gapes as a reflex.

It's called Powell's Anus, and from a clinical research perspective yields very similar to Pavlov's Dogs.

All that to say, be careful...

2

Mintleaf007 t1_iy0eo0j wrote

it pumps until fed meeting then does what jpow wants.

2

brodosphotos t1_iy17faz wrote

I reckon it will do a false breakthrough first, killing most of y'alls puts

2

TNastyMcFaded t1_iy1cyh7 wrote

Soon. Still have to wait for everyone to buy puts that get smoked first.

2

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1

anon4357 t1_iy0jg1v wrote

puts on you gayboi

1

hidraulik t1_iy0khzx wrote

Head and Shoulder until January

1

MaidenDrone t1_iy0xu25 wrote

Seems like a good time for a fed pump! Then dump.

1

lordinov t1_iy11tha wrote

All long baby

1

Both-Read8417 t1_iy13ju7 wrote

I’m a regard. Spy will be at 400 by close tomorrow. How do I make money off my regarded prediction?

1

KoGamer01 t1_iy15ada wrote

Don’t bet against America 🇺🇸

1

lovedumpme t1_iy16q7s wrote

I was eyeing shorting XLE. China locking down from riots and COVID going to free up lots of capacity.

1

Loose_Mail_786 t1_iy19y33 wrote

I have a few 360p 12/6. 🤞🫶🥰

1

---77--- t1_iy1da34 wrote

Bear call spread

1

zulufux999 t1_iy1dczo wrote

Short term <50 days seems bearish with SPY at RSI of 73 and VIX at 20, somewhat negative media sentiment, and energy still outpacing tech

1

PoorInvestRichGamble t1_iy1ksus wrote

I felt way better about my Puts when that guy posted SPY was going to 450 on Friday or something

1

laterbaker t1_iy1pnsl wrote

tomorrow spy hits 408

1

loreallovely t1_iy1rhk7 wrote

Looks like some credit spreads might be in order….

1

Flordamang t1_iy20xmf wrote

Never fight the trend. Not because you will always be right, but because you will be right more than you will be wrong.

1

trashcanpandas t1_iy22ppr wrote

Posts like these are why SPY is going to continue rallying past 420

1

Realistic_Housing631 t1_iy2ind4 wrote

A lot of people think that scraping the bottom of a barrel is the lowest one can go. They are wrong. You can lift the barrel and take a look at what’s underneath!

1

wutangfinancial88 t1_iy3bzcd wrote

It’s hit that trendline 3 times now. Which means it’ll blow past it and hit 450 the moment you buy puts. And by you I mean me.

1

No_Response_8465 t1_iy3e8ra wrote

Mid dated ours shouldn’t do you too badly, scale into them if you are going to

1

FartBurgerLard t1_iy7dou3 wrote

bUt MuH VIX sAYs iT WIlL Go dOWn Noew

1

daveysauce t1_iy1ub6a wrote

For the first time in over 20 years we have retail shorts and puts at an all time high and insider trading at a minimum.

SPY will probably stay resilient till mid next year and may even recover up to 4200 level easily in the next few months.

All because big banks don’t want to let the average retail win. And also metrics for the economy are doing better than expected and we may have a Santa Claus rally on our hands.

0