Submitted by Confident_Abroad4984 t3_z3qdll in wallstreetbets
This long term downtrend on the $SPY on the daily has been intact since the beginning of the year and tops out at each of the rallies n 2022.
Based on the charting if it were to follow exactly we will hit $407.20 on Tuesday the 29th and we will enter a 60 day downtrend to 340 by end of January.
The $VIX seems to indicate a similar pattern. What do you regards think?
but why not push 430 to stop out the 415-425 shorter? Then push 440 to stop 430 shorters and infinitely to new ATH?
Because MMs are short calls also. Hence max pain theory
Exactly!!
Happens all the time. More puts are bought and the algorithms keep pushing higher until a breaking point.
I have history books that I stole from the future, we won’t push past 415. Even with me interfering with the timeline
not on this bear rally at least hehe
Yep I agree 406-412 area on spy looks great for reject
JPOW gonna crush this bear rally. My 401k gonna be cash before the 12th
if you believe that you should cash out before the 29th since Jpow is speaking on the 30th.
447
447
how’d u know
It’s filled
447
>That's a very interesting analysis. I agree that the $SPY is in a long-term downtrend and that we could see it fall to around $340 by the end of January. The $VIX does seem to be indicating a similar pattern, so I think there's definitely some merit to your argument. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
I have a feeling 420 calls are going to get expensive.
Stonk only go up
Well as soon as I buy puts on this idea - they will go up for sure!
I think Powell gonna pivot santa rally coming
Powell will not pivot! It might be a .5 increase instead of the .75. I'm playing put spread
FED watch currently shows 75% chance of .50 vs 25% of .75. My guess is they will do .75 only if the Nov inflation comes out really bad.
December is historically a good month - but last time the fed was hiking in December was 2018 and the S&P was -9.18%
😳 how long did it take
The month performance was -9.18% but that’s also when they pivoted last
It lines up with the cpi report ... nobody knows which way we go but you can be sure it'll be a heavy rejection continuing the year trend or an explosion above that line. I think about 30$ on spy move incoming
I’d say it test past that mark at least 10$ a few days to shake out the shorts then dumps
Will definitely looking for a move up tomorrow before a rejection
Peak then crash to lows Oct
420.69 OP sheesh get your facts right...
The cycle frequency may be a little fudgeable...3 holidays to contend with during that time span. Sounds plausible, though...nice
Nice chart.
So do I sell at 4100 or buy more of the SP 500? Got a bunch of cash sitting on the sidelines.
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$420 . CANT BE FOOLED.
SPY $415
410-412
This sounds about right. Then it'll test the lows again.
I play these with long in the direction I think it’s going on and I sell shorter dates diagonal puts for credits. Relatively low risk.
Amen spy to implode at 407.2 and hit 340 by Jan end
Baggies lose again!!
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Technical Analysts are telling you SPY is in a downtrend and will hit 340. When you ask them what happens after 340 , you get a response like 🤷♂️… the with all the data and lines they draw , then don’t even know what direction SPY goes …. Anytime SPY break 400, they will come out and say we have to test the lows . My question to all TA… why do we have to test the lows ?
Because PE ratio for spy is still historically too high?
Historically high? Who said PE should be pegged at a specific point ? So are you telling me that the PE for the year 2100 should basically be in line with PE of 1962 ?
Sorry didn't realize I was speaking to a regard. You belong here! Keep buying tsla
Because of supply and demand basically, you want to see steady growth not volatile growth, if we keep pushing up with no retracement eventually it will whiplash back down harder than it went up. Why is that, from what I understand supply zones basically mean smart money wants to sell in that zone, so when the price hits a supply zone it will typically start to reject unless their is a catalyst to drive it further, when demand zones are hit big buys come in from smart money. Now back to why we need to go back and forth up and down. It’s not so much of testing lows as it is testing support and resistance, once we break a resistance of importance we should in a healthy stock movement go down to retest the resistance and see if it is still a strong demand zone to bounce off of. If it bounces it is confirmed to be demand zone and support. If it breaks back down well then it’s not support it was a fake break and it’s still resistance. Also gap fills up and down are based on building the right structure which is also why we need to test support and resistances on retracement because if a gap is left empty there is a chance of it being filled later and this could cause a lot of volatility if it fills later rather than sooner so smart money will tend to fill those gaps quickly imo.
Well the Feb fed meeting will occur just days after the bottom here and I’d expect if we are back at 340, the Fed will be either doing 0.25 or potentially even pause - both of which would be big moves upwards off the bottom
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JPOW will dad dick every one of these rallies with bigger interest rates until the bottom falls out.
Not peaking there is CPI gap up so moving to $560
So is it time for puts on the spy ooo ya.
Do the opposite of wsb
i think the overall thesis is fine, the long term downtrend will probably continue, there will be a sell off, possibly even to a new low
i just don't know how you're getting your time frames and i wouldn't trust any time frame that's so specific. we will peak on a Tuesday is way too specific of a call out to make.
how bout "this will peak somewhere around 4000-4100 and there will be a sell off to 3700-3400 range.
its not as exciting but probably will map on closer to the truth than "we will peak on Tuesday" since all that needs to happen for you to be wrong is us to peak on Monday or Wednesday.
What’s a WSB post without a bold prediction!
The dates used are based on the previous periods and angles in which stocks rose into those tops and then lowered into their bottoms. The market tends to replay patterns and angles with some differences. If they were to match the previous tops and bottoms, then the dates I gave would generally be the top and bottoms.
yeah bold predictions are a lot more fun
i wouldnt make any big bets off those predictions if thats your methodology. like i wouldnt 0dte tuesday puts. you could play the overall trend.
Pretty bold - was one day off in my call to 407
nope. will hit 430 before jan
volepotsirh t1_ixn3jdz wrote
thats what everyone expext, plus puts are at all time high, so NO - the computers will push it and stop everyone on the way up - ~ 415 - 425