BABA has a huge catalysts coming. Now is the time to go all in.

Submitted by Jshbone12 t3_z8mj92 in wallstreetbets

Currently BABA is being audited by the PCAOB. This is to prevent delisting by making them compliant with SEC auditing standards. The audit results will come out in early December. In this post, I will explain why this audit is going to successful. Remember, if the audit is successful, BABA with rocket because delisting risks will be eliminated.

There’s a lot of fear mongering surrounding this issue, and those who’ve followed it the least are sometimes the culprits and sometimes the victims of fear and rumor.

Certainly no one can know for sure what the results will be, but every piece of evidence we have points to a positive outcome. While the SEC / PCAOB have certainly been tough in their language and one would assume rigorous in their performance, it seems they do WANT to play ball with China, and have been willing to make some allowances. Evidence for that is in what the PCAOB could have asked for and audited if they'd chosen to. By law, they could have audited the Chinese companies that recently delisted. It appears they chose not to, and that is telling.

What else tells me this could be successful? In brief:

  1. The SEC/PCAOB used the word "completed" when finishing early. An ambiguous term, but not overtly negative.

  2. A Chinese company called Atour applied to the SEC and was accepted for an IPO on the Nasdaq, within days of the PCAOB “completing” their audit in China. This is the first Chinese stock listed in the US to issue ADSs since DIDI went public on June 30,2021. (See link below) Are we to believe the SEC would have let that go through within weeks of announcing a failed audit? Unlikely.

  3. Hong Kong is known for having highly rigorous auditing compared to the Nasdaq. In fact, some companies that can’t pass Hong Kong’s rigorous requirements, come to the Nasdaq instead. So if a company is dual-listed on the Hong Kong exchange (HSI) they’re likely good.

  4. Every comment from named & unnamed sources within the PCAOB has been good.

  5. The first sign of a failed audit will likely be a leak and a recent and unexplained drop of all Chinese stocks. That hasn’t happened.

In conclusion, this audit is largely about “compliance”, NOT perfect books or perfect process. If there are a few errors, but everyone has been compliant, from everything I’ve read, they’ll pass the audit.

If by chance they don’t pass the audit, by current law, I believe the Chinese companies would have one more year on the exchanges and therefore could have a second chance at an audit. NOTE: The PCAOB audits foreign countries listed on the US exchanges every year, regardless of the results. Think of it like an annual physical.

Before the audit is the best time to buy BABA. I’m currently holding over 1k shares. Position: https://imgur.com/a/pS7QQ8f

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Comments

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VisualMod t1_iyc895u wrote

>I'm not sure if I believe you, but even if the audit is successful it doesn't mean BABA will rocket. They might just stay stable or increase a little bit. Personally, I think there's more downside risk than upside potential with BABA right now so I wouldn't recommend buying shares.

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nightmarecake t1_iydbnff wrote

I worked for the 2 biggest manufacturer listers in the USA (tech firms). they were really sad abt alibaba. after i got laid off (programmer life rn) i invested heavily into alibaba. does doing that, count as insider trading? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 lets hope my boss isnt stalking my reddit

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycj5aq wrote

Share price is down over 75% since 2020 how much more downside can there be? The trailing PE ratio is under 10, BABA is dirt cheap right now. Most of these downside risks have played out and obliterated the stock.

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Rock-it-again t1_iyc8gcx wrote

Na, shits getting nationalized and all these ADR holders are gonna find out they have no legal claim to the money they "invested".

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycfqdu wrote

You’re saying this based off no real evidence, only a feeling in your gut. This is why you’ll stay poor.

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drexsackHH t1_iyckkru wrote

Famous last words..

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycl4p1 wrote

This is zero risk. I may take out loans to buy more

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SateliteDicPic t1_iyd0g5v wrote

Zero risk? You aren’t going to convince anyone by making hyperbolic claims like that. You can believe in the firm or your investing thesis but “zero risk” is at best willfully ignorant and at worst intentionally dishonest.

You are blowing off every geopolitical concern as if those outcomes are so unlikely they shouldn’t be considered. Xi has already made some decisions that even last year people would have considered very unlikely as well. The world is changing and the geopolitical risks are very real.

I remember everyone saying in January that Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine.

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iyeer0q wrote

Up 10% you’re a joke

−1

SateliteDicPic t1_iyefdp2 wrote

Only down 50% on the year still. What an amazing investment!

It’s up one day - that makes it “zero risk?” You are a 🤡

Post your YTD gains Mr Buffet and impress us all.

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Nearby-Ad-3609 t1_iycoiin wrote

The de-catalyst is that it is a Chinese company

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Bull_Winkle69 t1_iycpwau wrote

Lol.

  1. Zero Covid is still fucking up logistics in China.

  2. Looming real estate collapse is threatening to detail economy. It's bigger that 2007.

  3. Xi is rolling in the tanks as we speak.

  4. Sweden may release their report on the Nordstream 2 sabotage. If Russia is blamed (and it likely will be) then Russia automatically goes on US anti terrorism list. That means India and China must stop trading with Russia OR lose US markets and anyone who trades with US. They'll choose the US, but they'll lose oil and gas from Russia and ag inputs like fertilizer. They've got over a billion people to feed.

  5. China's census has been over reporting it's numbers. Their population is in decline for last ten years with 100 million more males than females. This means no future consumer base.

  6. Meanwhile labor costs have 12x over last 20 years and are no longer competitive. Many companies offshoring to Mexico. Except Tesla and Apple. Puts like a mofo on Tesla. <100 $ by next fall.

  7. Polestar reports 2 month production delay due to riots. Apple is aiding Xi against protestors. Musk is supporting Xi because he needs his giga factory to be protected.

I'll be quite Frank with you all. China will be lucky to be a single country by end of decade. If they can't pull it together they might also lose tens of millions due to hunger and civil war.

Even if they execute flawlessly, the population will be halved by 2050. The women dominate manufacturing and men are in different industries and provinces. It will take 20 years to make a 19 year old and they've barely even started trying.

They are fucked. I wouldn't put a penny in China. Hell, I wouldn't invest someone else's money in China.

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycqgla wrote

People have been suggesting China is on the verge of collapse for decades. It never plays out. Yes China has problems, but to translate that to mass starvation and civil war is laughable.

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Bull_Winkle69 t1_iyctpzm wrote

Yes, because China has never had those things before.

The current Han hegemony has only last 100 years or so.

It's the longest in their history.

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Aggressive-Ad3286 t1_iycvl09 wrote

lol, the investing world looked at china as a golden goose these past decades, with near 10%+ yearly growth, now the world will see it was all fake, fakes numbers,fake government, fake buildings, fake roads etc. Just a giant funnel for stealing money for the elites and corrupt.

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iye3q6h wrote

All the numbers are fake? Even the roads and buildings? You are a joke.

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Aggressive-Ad3286 t1_iyei5bn wrote

The only joke here is you, CCP shill, seeing as the ccp even came out saying most of their numbers were fakes by the provincial and city governments, and all the roads and buildings are tofu dredge projects that collapse...

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lavishcoat t1_iyc9xp5 wrote

What will you do when the company decides to refuse recognition of the Cayman island incorporated shell company that Americans use to buy BABA shares? Send a strongly worded letter?

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycfklz wrote

That is an extreme scenario which is unlikely. China need’s foreign investment and relationships. Most of its products are exported. It would be economic suicide for no reason. Far worse and more extreme than zero Covid, they’re not even comparable. I don’t think you understand how improbable this is.

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lavishcoat t1_iycostj wrote

When they attack Taiwan, everything you just said will be moot. They are literally preparing right now to be cut off from the world at large.

Good luck with your fake chinese shares.

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That-Whereas3367 t1_iycpcci wrote

Incorrect. Most Chinese economic activity is internal. Exports are just 20% of Chinese GDP (one of the lowest rates in the world).

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycq45j wrote

Destroying 20% of their economic activity is economic suicide. It’s more than just their exports. The U.S and Chinese economies are extremely intertwined. The impacts would be devastating for them.

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Aggressive-Ad3286 t1_iycuyf0 wrote

lmfao, as if the ccp cares what happens to the chinese ppl and country...

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RepairThrowaway1 t1_iycxx6n wrote

Assuming political leadership will be logical and rational is a VERY big assumption, in any country

1

Aggressive-Ad3286 t1_iycup9x wrote

China is heading the way of North Korea 2.0, it will completely cut it self off from the world, if it can steal money from a bunch of regards along the way it will.

1

bortcorn t1_iycrpd7 wrote

All in BABA is not wise. This is a macro secular bear market, China US relations are bad and getting worse, and, as has been pointed out many times to OP, this is an ADR and you might find yourself without recourse in an event where the CCP decides US shareholders are not entitled to their shares at face value. For any reason.

There are so many ways to play a bullish re-opening narrative. This is not the strongest way by a mile.

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bortcorn t1_iycs04r wrote

Side note: OP your post history concerns me. You may want to slow down, trim your BABA position, go to cash with it, not take on any more debt here, and fill your time with something else for a bit. Something that gives you joy! Not financial advice… life advice!

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iye38ne wrote

Never. I’m going to use margin to buy more BABA

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okokibuynok t1_iyd0kwy wrote

Biden and Xi just met and it went well? What news do u have about them getting worse? Genuinely curious

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bortcorn t1_iyd6wlk wrote

Just my opinion and I might be wrong:

I don’t put much stock in those sessions. I watch what the countries are doing. These political meetings are inevitable as both states must present themselves as willing to de-escalate. It’s statecraft. But China is setting out on a clear grand strategy which puts it at complete odds with US grand strategy. These meetings are meant to delay the inevitable and buy time imho. For both sides.

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That-Whereas3367 t1_iycodx0 wrote

$BABA is a shell company registered in the Cayman islands. It has zero assets and owns zero Alibaba stock.

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Greedy_Syrup_3360 t1_iydnys0 wrote

That true tho? I hold some of them shares so it concerns me lol...source if possible

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iye3s3x wrote

It’s true but it’s no risk guaranteed to double

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nightmarecake t1_iydbc79 wrote

yes.

side note: sorting this sub by controversial rather than by top, has given me the most roi 🙃

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unlimitedquanteasing t1_iyefxb4 wrote

It’d be perfect WSB to buy calls after this is up 20% in a week.

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iyegag7 wrote

It went up 11% after this post. I am a genius

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^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive Hey /u/Jshbone12, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: The audit is going to be successful and BABA will rocket.

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BaBaBuyey t1_iycdjoe wrote

Semiconductor chips!!!!!!

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OSRSkarma t1_iycqiet wrote

Positions?

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycqlqa wrote

They’re at the bottom of the post. $86k in shares.

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OSRSkarma t1_iycqnw2 wrote

My b dude, havent had coffee yet skimmed right over it

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Qzy t1_iycwphq wrote

Dude, you are using Robinhood, no one will listen to you.

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okokibuynok t1_iyd0cum wrote

I'm with u brother except, I hold 2024/2025 LEAPS

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Kenny_McCormick001 t1_iyd7ur5 wrote

Your analysis is solid, if not for the fact BABA super exposed to Geopolitical risk. If you can stomach this kind of risk, you might as well start a turf war with the Sinoloa cartel.

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crayb_aby t1_iyd862l wrote

Jack Ma is chilling in tokyo for now if thats any indication

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GuhgaChad t1_iydpglb wrote

Sell low buy high amirite

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PLTRruinedme t1_iyeg1ol wrote

Id love to yolo but i got fucked so much i aint got the liquidity

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forumhero666 t1_iyfdpgc wrote

There’s civil unrest in China rn but you do you booboo

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BourboneAFCV t1_iycd2uo wrote

It doesn't matter, the CCP has crashed their economy, and the stock won't go up until they remove the covid restriction and lockdowns

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Jshbone12 OP t1_iycftaz wrote

Yes it does. baba’s stock has tanked in part from delisting fears. Once these fears are eliminated by the audit, the stock will rocket in the short term.

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