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Interesting_Ad1006 t1_ix0md31 wrote

You know that energy crisis in europe will still last even after the war? Sanctions for russia will not dissapear a day after the war. Europe needs to rebuild its energy infrastructure first. Im not saying you are wrong, there probably will be a big rally when the war is over, I wouldnt be so sure that the market is going to grow constantly, I doubt we will see ATH in Europe indexes soon

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[deleted] OP t1_ix0nc6a wrote

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Interesting_Ad1006 t1_ix0q9fp wrote

Well, from my own experience either someone is very greedy or the prices are really high. Coal price in Poland tripled, my friends from Finland stopped buying electric cars as the energy prices surged and they say it is no longer worth it. Family from UK is planning to relocate due to high utility bills. Europe countries were able to fill their gas storages it doesn’t change a fact that they will be empty by the next winter. There is an excess, but it will deplete. In “normal” circumstances I would say that central banks will solve the situation with stimulus and printing money, but with global inflation like this it is not the case anymore. Of course I might be wrong, but as a person living here I really see that this situation is quite challenging for some people

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[deleted] OP t1_ix0r1fs wrote

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Interesting_Ad1006 t1_ix0u0pe wrote

Anyway, I dont want to influence your trading decisions, you might be right, I might be wrong, we might be both wrong. This is a casino :) good luck!

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dbx999 t1_ix1dksg wrote

I have some doubts about the German economy making rapid growth which would be required for the ETF to show substantial growth.

The German economy relies on exports - and much of that is in cars. And German cars are behind on the EV market. They’ll need to play catch up which they probably could do but there are some dependencies in production that could bottleneck them - supply chain issues relating to microchip availability is one since Germany doesn’t make their own and rely (as the US and Japan do) on imported chips mainly from Taiwan and China.

The other is that Germany’s population is an aging one so there are questions about a contraction of its productivity as the labor supply shrinks accordingly. They are not structured to be as elastic in absorbing foreign labor as the US. We’re very good at attracting skilled and educated immigrants. Germany is more or less mired by refugees along with much of the EU. This doesn’t translate into boosting their high end labor force.

Germany and Japan have a lot in common and Japan hasn’t been a strong growth market. They are great at what they’re doing but it isn’t a growth nation.

Poorer countries have a bigger potential for big jumps in GDP. Take Vietnam for instance. They have a ways to go but are in a good position for growth and they have a growing industrial and manufacturing base. I’d put my investment into that etf before Germany’s.

Another is the UK. They are in terrible shape because they made boneheaded political decisions. They broke their own legs by seceding from the EU and are struggling to reestablish access to global markets that their EU status used to give them. However, if they manage to pull their political system straightened out, their economy should improve - only because of how utterly fucked they are now. So as a first world country, they actually offer decent growth potential from the fact they’re at a bottom and still stumbling around now.

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PunisherASM129 t1_ix388l1 wrote

Wait, why do you say German cars are behind on EV? At least in Paris, you cannot walk a block without seeing a BMW EV for example (one small data point of course).

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dbx999 t1_ix3abrr wrote

In the USA, German EV are quite rare. Even hybrids.

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PunisherASM129 t1_ix3lir9 wrote

You are right. I see some electric BMWs in my neighborhood when I am home (I am American) but, to your point, there are 20 or more teslas for every one of them. Thanks.

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VisualMod t1_ix0l9bo wrote

>I think you're onto something with your analysis of the German economy. I believe that once the war is over, there will be a massive recovery period for Germany and the rest of Europe. The Euro will definitely rise in value, and inflation will likely drop as well. This ETF looks like a good way to play those trends.

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BlueMysteryWolf t1_ix23f1i wrote

I mean the day is over it'll be green everywhere.

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[deleted] OP t1_ix29m3j wrote

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BlueMysteryWolf t1_ix2abuv wrote

Oh hell yes.

If you wanna get crazy about it, one investment to consider after the war is over and all is said and done is to invest in...Russian assets.

Many countries have their own ETFs. I tossed a bit in Switzerland because, you know, Switzerland. China has an ETF as well.

But Russia has crashed pretty hard, but once the war is over, you know one economy that's bound to improve is the economy that lost the most. (And you can't invest in Ukraine that I know of)

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[deleted] OP t1_ix2badn wrote

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BlueMysteryWolf t1_ix2cwf0 wrote

I don't think it's clear about what will happen with the war.

I mean, with Ukraine and Russia is a maybe, but then look at the rising tensions...

*checks*

Pretty much everywhere else.

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volepotsirh t1_ix0lvvw wrote

aye lets all gamble that the war will be over next year, and not think about that is winter and the German economy is about to get fuk

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BobRussRelick t1_ix1k4nu wrote

there will be blackouts. blackouts can't be good for earnings.

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babydick18 t1_ix1ia41 wrote

Russian here: Russian army is fucked, idk how Putin managed to find so many working tanks, usually it’s 1 out of 10. Ukraine will free all their land by summer 2023 think, but it won’t make Europe any good, because it will have to switch to expensive LNG. Also there’s 99% chance that Putin will be “fired” from his position right after defeat in Ukraine

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[deleted] OP t1_ix1lfol wrote

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babydick18 t1_ix1maxk wrote

Ukrainian military gives that prognosis, that by summer 2023 they will liberate Crimea and Donbas. Hard to predict it, I thought Kherson was going to be liberated in December, but it turned out to be sooner

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[deleted] OP t1_ix1sodv wrote

Yup. I was watching EWG from the moment the war broke out. I pulled the trigger on a first round as soon as they dropped below $20. Could go down further over the winter depending on how ruthless Putin turns out to be. Germany could be highly dependent upon Russian oil and gas although they have been working to become less so. If Putin turns off the spigot during the winter Germans could be in real trouble. Then again, this war could fizzle and Putin may become less inclined to pursue escalation. EWG is down and will eventually recover but it may not be done yet.

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anath0r t1_ix2kfag wrote

In 23 we will see massive unemployment due to high energy prices starting from jan 23. Food riots are planned for 24, 25

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VisualMod t1_ix0l8k8 wrote

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Hey /u/baeconundeggz, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: I think Germany will do well economically after the war, and the Euro will rise. You can play this with EWG Leaps.

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zeratul-on-crack t1_ix0tdpn wrote

even though I agree with you, you are dangerously downplaying the energy costs. The fact that Natgas is not at $9 does not mean that the problem is over... and it won't be over for a while (I hope so, I am banking on high gas price for a non financial project SME xD) I will start building my german/european position by February I think

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muri_cina t1_ix2rsp7 wrote

>Eurozone will see a massive recovery. The Euro has already been rising this past month and

And the weak € allowed the companies to profit. A strong € is not as great, look at Swiss who are panicking about the strong Franken.

Also the shitshow with refugees. At the same time there are not enough skilled workers, good luck producing more when there are not enough people.

And the refugees won't solve it. Most syrians, afgans and now ukranians have a hard time learning the language. And are traumatized after all they went through. Don't see them replacing the retiring older workers and filling the existing gaps. (Or the conservative companies working with them in the first place...)

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