Well, from my own experience either someone is very greedy or the prices are really high. Coal price in Poland tripled, my friends from Finland stopped buying electric cars as the energy prices surged and they say it is no longer worth it. Family from UK is planning to relocate due to high utility bills. Europe countries were able to fill their gas storages it doesn’t change a fact that they will be empty by the next winter. There is an excess, but it will deplete. In “normal” circumstances I would say that central banks will solve the situation with stimulus and printing money, but with global inflation like this it is not the case anymore. Of course I might be wrong, but as a person living here I really see that this situation is quite challenging for some people

I have some doubts about the German economy making rapid growth which would be required for the ETF to show substantial growth.

The German economy relies on exports - and much of that is in cars. And German cars are behind on the EV market. They’ll need to play catch up which they probably could do but there are some dependencies in production that could bottleneck them - supply chain issues relating to microchip availability is one since Germany doesn’t make their own and rely (as the US and Japan do) on imported chips mainly from Taiwan and China.

The other is that Germany’s population is an aging one so there are questions about a contraction of its productivity as the labor supply shrinks accordingly. They are not structured to be as elastic in absorbing foreign labor as the US. We’re very good at attracting skilled and educated immigrants. Germany is more or less mired by refugees along with much of the EU. This doesn’t translate into boosting their high end labor force.

Germany and Japan have a lot in common and Japan hasn’t been a strong growth market. They are great at what they’re doing but it isn’t a growth nation.

Poorer countries have a bigger potential for big jumps in GDP. Take Vietnam for instance. They have a ways to go but are in a good position for growth and they have a growing industrial and manufacturing base. I’d put my investment into that etf before Germany’s.

Another is the UK. They are in terrible shape because they made boneheaded political decisions. They broke their own legs by seceding from the EU and are struggling to reestablish access to global markets that their EU status used to give them. However, if they manage to pull their political system straightened out, their economy should improve - only because of how utterly fucked they are now. So as a first world country, they actually offer decent growth potential from the fact they’re at a bottom and still stumbling around now.