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DrSeuss1020 t1_iycc914 wrote

What are you holding now and anticipate being good medium term holds?

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyczkbc wrote

PBR, VALE, ABEV are great value stocks with good dividends that will outperform if not nationalized By Brazil’s new president. Position size appropriately that if they drop to zero you‘ll be able to stomach the loss. PBR is trading at 2x earnings.

I think there’s rules against tickers of sub $1B companies but there’s only two publicly traded firearms companies in the US, they are market cap around 700M. They’ve been hit hard in the last few months. I loaded up on more.

WBA Walgreens looks cheap And nice diversifier from my otherwise commodity producers.

I’m keeping an eye on Kohls KSS because it looks cheap but has run up a bunch lately so I’d like to be a pull back. It may not happen and I may miss it but I am okay missing stuff. I want to buy $1 for to cents, rather than buy $1 for $2 and hope it goes to $3.

From a macro level, shoppers will be forced to downgrade. Target shoppers go to Walmart. And I think Kohls is a lower tier kind of place in the middle class realm. I can see new shoppers downgrading from something better down to kohls. Also there’s the bullwhip effect and I think lots of apparel and home goods places are overstocked. So they might offload stuff to kohls cheaper than usual.

I really like gold miners like GDXJ but it’s run up 30% in recent weeks so it’s tough to say it’s as good of a deal as when I got in, but I think 2x or 3x over a year is possible. If the fed pivots, GDXJ could soar. Gold is at 1750 now. It was over $2000 in early 2020 before we got 30% debasement of the dollar supply. It *should* be $3,000 an ounce now. Gold miners are a leveraged play in that if gold doubles, then miners might 5x or 10x. But it works both ways if gold goes down.

Miners use diesel as input cost so being long oil stocks is a good internal hedge.

Speaking of oil. I loaded up on tanker stocks when the pipeline magically exploded and they’re up 40% in a couple months. FRO is my fav but it’s run up a bit so Id wait to see if it drops down back to 10 before entering.

DVA Davita dialysis company. Buffet owns 40%. It crashed last month on bad earnings due. Everytime that happens, buffet buys more. I loaded up. Get in around the 70 mark and hold for 6 months, will be at 80+ which will be like 20% annualized returns. the stock has a “buffet put” where it can’t fall too low or he will buy more.

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DrSeuss1020 t1_iydmbuh wrote

Thank you! These are all very insightful and well thought out thesis for each position. I appreciate you taking the time to type it out. Following you in case you post more! Great info

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