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conviper30 t1_iyciicu wrote

Reply to comment by NoMoreLandBro in Thousands of trades over 3 years on $500k+ account. Barely beating the SP500. by NoMoreLandBro

So what in particular do you look at for macro analysis? Sorry I'm a crayon eater so you may need to explain it to a not so smart person.

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyd0lft wrote

It’s not really codifiable or objective. I look at what’s happening in the world and think about where money will flow.

In early 2020 I was in line at the post office, wearing a mask when that nonsense started, and an old man had ridden his bicycle here. He said the gyms being closed made it hard to work out so he was biking more. I immediately thought “peloton will soar on these lockdowns” because I KNEW lockdowns would last 18 to 24 months.

But I didn’t buy any, the stock seemed expensive. Oops.

By late 2020 I saw the ‘vid was entrenched and knew it would be a massive recession. And the government would propose infrastructure spending. So I went heavy into infrastructure stocks while everyone else was piling into tech.

Late 2021 I said war was going to be a way for the politicians to divert inflation so I went into defense contractors.

Mid-2022 I saw green energy policies in Europe complained with anti-Putin pro-Ukraine rhetoric would mean high energy costs there and shortages. So I sold the few European stocks I had, and I bought into uranium since nuclear is the only way out for them.

Nord pipeline blew up and I knew the oil had to be transported in tankers so I bought tankers.

I look to see what’s happening in the world. And IF the stocks are cheap enough to buy, I’ll buy. I missed on peloton because it looked expensive. I missed on Zoom because I work in IT and have known for years Zoom is trash spyware and had no idea it would go so fucking high.

If you study history and psychology you can see where the world is going. And try to front run investments. If you only invest when the macro picture looks possible and the stocks are value, then even if the macro is wrong, you bought into value so it wasn’t that bad.

Value being something that’s under 12x earnings (PE) versus growth that’s like Tesla that was 900 PE last year. I don’t like growth stocks because if you’re wrong, you’re spectacularly wrong. Look at early to mid 2022 what happened to Ark innovation stocks. But if wrong on deep value stocks, they’re still deep value.

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SoulMute t1_iyd36d0 wrote

All of this sage wisdom to match the performance of the S&P tho.

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyd3myx wrote

Exactly. Kind of a waste of time. The reason I dislike the SP500 is it gets growth stock weighted with crap I dislike like Facebook and Tesla. In 2020, something like 40% of the SP500 was in Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Tesla.

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1nd3x t1_iyejnvj wrote

>Exactly. Kind of a waste of time.

Not for me it wasnt...I'd tip you but I'm an asshole...lol

Seriously though, thanks for taking the time to write this stuff out. I've been going through some of your comments as I find them here and you've done some things I was considering and didnt, and I did some things you were considering and didnt...kinda allows me to learn from the things I decided not to, and see what make others consider not doing it (like...was I just lucky on a coinflip I thought was in the bag based on missing some info...info you maybe had that caused you to think "nah, not for me")

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You mentioned Uranium, I would offer up Helium as another commodity now that the US government is done price suppressing it.

If you want some symbol tips, or want to connect and chat about investments in general send me a PM, I'm always interested in expanding my network of trusted individuals(just you, I'm ignoring other people messaging me requests)

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyek53o wrote

How do I invest in helium? I’ve heard about this shortage for years. It’s used in MRI machines.

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Ok-Government-846 t1_iydaw9s wrote

@nomorelandbro. i realize you think this is fun and you think youre smart...lol...but if u had this much time on your hands youd buy the sp 500 or most of it (you mention you dont like certain ones in comments below) Individually -key word here- and then sell the losers at year end for tax harvesting. bam you just beat yourself the sp 500..

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emptyzon t1_iye90ea wrote

“If you’re wrong, you’re spectacularly wrong.”

Seems like that’s the theme of this subreddit. A chance at chasing spectacular gains for spectacular losses.

Good on you for such tight risk management. That’s what separates you from the rest and preserving your fairly sizable capital.

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iyeih22 wrote

Thanks! I received a compliment from a friend that it’s impressive even though I basically matched the index, because my volatility was so much lower.

Honestly also I hold a ton of cash. So basically, the non-cash positions I held have massively beat the index, and the cash acted as a drag. But, like you say, risk management, I like having the cash, it leads to lower volatility and gives me more options.

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