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Acceptable_Answer570 t1_iyde5cd wrote

Reply to comment by NoMoreLandBro in Thousands of trades over 3 years on $500k+ account. Barely beating the SP500. by NoMoreLandBro

I’m really new to investing so a lot of those terms are still wild to me 😅.

Why home builders?

And why short QQQ, when everyone is expecting a Christmas rally? Are you in it long, for the 2023 slippery slope?

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iydqc2b wrote

Position sizing. My taxable account is where I do most of the shorting and I’m 70k long gold miners, 15k long gun stocks, 15k long divita.

15k short QQQ

20k short home builders

25k long dated puts on Tesla, Facebook, and amazon

If we have a Christmas rally, my tech shorts will be crushed but my long positions should outperform enough to compensate. And even though the puts will be further OTM, the IV will spike so they wont drop as much.

Homebuilder shorts because r/REBubble and I think Papa J will will be more hawkish the market expects and mortgages will be 10%+ next year as they raise rates and sell MBS off their balance sheet or simply dont roll maturing MBS. Builders are making houses they wont be able to sell because when built, theyll be worth less than the materials, and also rates will be much higher and buyers will back off.

OR papa J pivots, my shorts get crushed, and my 400k+ retirement account with 80% commodity producers soars. I’ll get tax deductions for my losses in the shorts and my retirement accounts grows tax-free and/or tax-deferred.

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Acceptable_Answer570 t1_iydrie8 wrote

Jesus, I wish I had this amount of brains, I guess it comes with years of experience!

Did it all come from savings, or over-time gains?

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NoMoreLandBro OP t1_iydty03 wrote

Step 1 is get a 200k/year consulting job.

Step 2 is don’t lose it on crypto and 0DTE options

Step 3 is become interested in macro economics, spend a decade reading books and in your free time watch YouTube videos of people discussing current macro trends.

Step 4 apply critical thinking

Example: Peter Schiff recently said Walmart shoppers are putting more stuff on credit cards. From point of sale register data.

And he interpreted that to mean Walmart shoppers are going into debt to buy food.

I interpret it differently. Walmart has said they are stealing market share from Target as people downgrade their lifestyle. Well, target customers have more rewards credit cards than Walmart shoppers. So if Walmart experiences a transition where they get 20% more customers from Target, I’d expect 20% more credit card to debit card sales. Since the poor legacy Walmart customers are the ones with fucked credit who must use debit cards and not earn cash back rewards.

I can’t do anything with this piece of data, just mention it to use critical thinking and interpret things differently than the experts.

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