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VisualMod t1_ix0kq2e wrote

>There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question, as the best time to jump into a trade will vary depending on the individual circumstances. However, in general, it is often advisable to wait for a clear signal before entering a position.

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mikev854 t1_ix0kzz7 wrote

They’re just gambling.

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Habooboo5 t1_ix0l9b0 wrote

It’s gambling. Buy deep OTM options, get lucky. And once you have the benefit of hindsight it was an obvious play

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MannyFresh45 t1_ix0ldl4 wrote

Calculated gambling. Hypothesis based on technicals then stop loss to minimize losses

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MayoLovinApe t1_ix0ldxj wrote

Its not necessarily gambling. Last week i had some really good days. Webull lets you do two trades basically. Your first one and then you get to trade with the profit on the next one after you sell. So say you put 1k in on spy calls and made 2k now you have 3k you can get pretty far doing that. I think it all comes down to patience more than anything. And hope like hell it doesnt reverse.

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Shiftybidnes t1_ix0lpot wrote

I usually buy calls at the end of a really green day and puts on a red day. So the next day when it reverses I see mad losses and then i photoshop the numbers green

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alanzo123 t1_ix0lres wrote

no one knows which way the market will go on a daily basis. you can only stack statistics, trends, support and resistance in your favor. manage risk and get out when the trade doesn’t go the way you thought.

it’s not about being right, it’s about making money. most of the loss porn is people refusing to see the writing on the wall, stubbornly holding hope they will still be right.

before you enter any trade, find the points where you are getting out for a loss. assume you’re going to lose. take profits if they come, evaluate your p/l on a weekly basis and reconsider your strategy every losing week.

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PorscheHen t1_ix0lvbf wrote

I look up the lowest price of the option that day and lowball it by about 10%. If my purchase goes through then I hold my breath and hope that it goes my way. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't.

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CarolineEllisonFTX t1_ix0lzap wrote

https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Price-Analysis/dp/1491249390#customerReviews

  1. Study
  2. Create strength and resistance support lines every morning - based on 3day charts and going back 1 year to see where similar zones struggled to break out or break down
  3. Monitor the big names in the market - AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, etc. as well as monitor indexes like XLF, XLK, XLV, QQQ - watch for when one starts to break down and see if others start to follow suit as this will guide SPY and slightly precede SPY moves
  4. Look at the technical indicators and what they are doing - MACD, EMAs, RSI, etc.
  5. Watch the macro trends
  6. Divorce your emotions and feelings from trading (this is the hardest one and why most can't trade for a living - you need to be a robot emotionally like Zuckerburg)

I tried for a little while, but I don't have the time or will to do this despite seeing others do it successfully. Trading SPY will make the gamblers and impulsive people bend over and take it. You'll likely lose for a while until you learn to be patient and make the 1, 2 or no trades a day depending on signals.

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Vegetable-Spray3239 t1_ix0mfne wrote

I sell credit spreads and I like owe double in 10 minutes I'm pretty good at losing robinhood will make spy go against my trade but I've gotten good at hedging and rolling 😌 ☺️ I can confuse them buy selling 402 405 credit spread and buy a 397 399 debit spread haha 😄

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CarolineEllisonFTX t1_ix0mr6x wrote

Sounds like you know more than the experts, suppose that's why you are winning a lot. When the market doesn't make sense, don't play it. Using a 1 week sample as anecdotal support is silly. You do know what SPY is composed of right?

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Narrrrrrrrrrrrr t1_ix0o8uk wrote

TA is literally nonsense. This is why at the firm i work at we have 8-10 math/cs PHDs creating models that can give “predictions” of “the most likely event” and even then sometimes these regards are completely wrong. we have literally sat in a room with these turbo nerds and watched “TA tiktok” and they have literally shit their pants laughing. the best joke they tell is “they hope they don’t get fired because they aren’t up to date on the current market analytics, you know, the astrology part of it.”.

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Narrrrrrrrrrrrr t1_ix0ols7 wrote

TA is like doing advanced level math without a calculator or proofs. sure you can get lucky, you can sometimes get the answer right without much help. but most of the time it’s still a shot in the dark.

0

MayoLovinApe t1_ix0ouas wrote

All of it is if you really study the markets. I have spent a full year studying it for hours upon hours a day. Its really hard to be profitable if you dont set rules.

These youtubers like day trading addict and carmine rosato are jokes. Theres a new one too. Some little 16 year old that posts +12k profits a day on his videos. Its just them selling their discord to you.

I honestly havent found anything that was profitable other than price action and setting stop losses.

TA is a hit or miss. Usually it does the opposite of what it looks like its gonna do. If you got a bull flag forming usually it breaks down.

I use a little bit of everything besides indicators

This little 16 year old right here lol this shit shoukd be banned on youtube https://youtu.be/SQL2xIsdN5c

0

Neebs369 t1_ix0p45f wrote

This is what I’ve doing. So far so good. Also I never bet more then 10% of that account in one directional play (calls or puts)(literally this is an account for gambling and playing around. I have multiple other more stable long term accounts etc etc).

Literal day trading 0tde options. Based on shit ta and market direction.

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Shavenballz t1_ix0p4qh wrote

Just buy a straddle when it hits vwap

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Narrrrrrrrrrrrr t1_ix0p535 wrote

honestly even studying the market doesn’t work unless you’re using data extrapolation tools. but i get your gist. the truth is - unless you have access to a terminal and high level connections, you will not have a good shot at being consistently profitable. SIDENOTE: this does not apply to theta gang in the SLIGHTEST.

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joknub24 t1_ix0p6ge wrote

The only people that really win are the MMs

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greeksgeek t1_ix0pbpt wrote

Only winners post their gain, the other 99% of them are losing money

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darksoulmakehappy t1_ix0pxtd wrote

Options are a zero sum game.

Using the casino analogy, Think of the sellers of the contracts as the house and the buyers of contracts as gambler's.

Yes they win big sometimes, but the majority lose.

Unlike casino gamblers though some buyers may have an edge, usually though that "perceived" edge isn't real though.

It's like when tesla is having earnings and you have two people writing DD's. Both are compelling and well researched. One is bearish, one is bullish. When earnings come out one is correct. Was it correct because it's research was more "right" or just because of luck. If they are both compelling DD I would say one person was lucky.

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links311 t1_ix0q0g9 wrote

To me swing trading is riding the ups and downs intraday. I do this on spy or a company that doesn’t suck (is performing well). It’s extremely time consuming though as I’m constantly watching candles for patterns and RSI to make sure I’m not looking at a potential reversal that really won’t go anywhere.

It definitely doesn’t always work.

Friday is the first time I’ve held options longer than a day for the past couple weeks and that was because the reversal I “predicted” didn’t come. The options just haven’t lost enough value for me to bug out of em—-yet. Monday will come soon enough and likely rake me over the coals 😂

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fwilliams92109 t1_ix0r3m2 wrote

Definitely nothing is 100%, but as far as ODTE options go, I am yet to lose when the day opens on the bottom bollinger band or below after gapping down from previous day close. When the day opens in this position I buy calls at open and sell as soon as they double. The options sometimes end up running for 200-300% but I’m perfectly content doubling my money. Using bollinger bands with V-Wap on the 30 min chart helps me a lot also as far as intraday trades. 90% of the time SPY will not move past it’s 1 hour bollinger band width during the day, unless the bands pinch to within a dollar of top and bottom band, when that happens a big move is coming in either direction so I’ll buy an iron condor for the next day expiration and sell once I’m up 50% total.

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i_seII_DMT_carts t1_ix0sf06 wrote

it's kinda wild, every strategy seems logical.

"super green day, so the momentum will carry over to tomorrow"

"super green day, so tomorrow it will correct a bit"

"super green day, so tomorrow it will probably trade sideways since the bulls got their fix and the bears are scared"

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2-Sigma-Penis t1_ix0sy24 wrote

If you're gonna put time into this, and you want to consistently make money, learn multi-legged strategies, and when to use them, and how to trade out of them when they go against you. watch Tastytrade.com every morning if you wanna learn to trade like a pro.

As for us, yeah, we're just gambling!

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Puzzleheaded_Friend8 t1_ix0tx7m wrote

On my demo i turned 1k into 1mil. My real account looks like shite.

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megaultraman t1_ix0wdvb wrote

idk why you're being an asshole to the person replying. Seems like they are giving solid advice along your preferred "price-action" modality. they don't have to be an expert to give good advice, you have to be good enough to sift through what is good advice and what is not. And humble enough not to be a prick about it.

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Biffled t1_ix0xd2k wrote

No different than the craps table.

0

youngpadwanbud t1_ix12d96 wrote

The way spx has been going a lot of days not over weekends or be careful with economic announcements the next day but you can straddle and lots of times take profits on a morning dip/spike and then take profits with the opposite. It is still a gamble but most days of you are actively watching you are able to make gains on both sides or sometimes a big move one way.

0

Smithmonster t1_ix130bb wrote

At this point you think what the logical thing the market should do, and do the opposite.

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Sorry_Setting1196 t1_ix134q9 wrote

I extend out the expiration so I have a chance of my calls or puts hitting. Strikes in the money or at the money. Bad day and it feels like the bottom, im buying some calls, and vice versa. With index based ETFs you can just straight scalp the random movements intraday and thats a good way to stack bread. Wouldn't do this shit with any individual stock but with the index idc, there's some intrinsic value with the ETFs because its essentially the market as a whole.

As someone said, calculated gambling. I used the option profit calculator online to kinda get an idea of where I need to be for it to hit even before I place an order.

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AliveNot t1_ix141mn wrote

You just don’t got the touch. Move aside ! It’s my turn

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lightning_whirler t1_ix14hkz wrote

>I see people taking 1k and making up to 20 to 30k in a few days doing it.

But far more often you'll see people posting loss porn. It's a long shot gamble, anyone who could do it consistently would be retired sipping drinks on a tropical beach somewhere.

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embracethekook t1_ix15f0m wrote

For those overnight gap up/down plays are you using the 30 min time frame? What do you have your std dev set to in your BBs? I use 3 instead of 2 for better accuracy when they are hit, but of course are hit less frequently than a std dev of 2.

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fwilliams92109 t1_ix16tnu wrote

The standard 2, I’ve messed with 3 and even 1 like an idiot but 2 seems to work well for me. For the gap up/down I only do that if the 1 hour too and bottom band are within a dollar of each other and ideally closer to .75.

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TimHung931017 t1_ix18h15 wrote

You see these gains because that's what people post. People will post gains all the time but nobody wants to post losses. It's equivalent to social media, you see all the good sides of everyone but rarely anyone posts themselves needing therapy because they have social anxiety.

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oneenigma4u t1_ix18ke1 wrote

Not advice. They do not buy contracts close to the money. Let's say they have a very strong feeling, it will be a down Market today. So they call up the spy option chain. Locate a put contract that's about $0.10 a share. Usually in same day expiration. Then load up. If the market moves down immediately from the open. There are 10 dollars contracts will appreciate immensely. So if they have a hundred contracts. Which would equal $1,000. So if these 10 cents a share contracts go up to as little as 11 cents a share. You just made $100. If the market has a big scare in dips quickly. These 10 cents shares could move up to as much as 40 cents. Which would yield them $3,000 profit. Obviously scale up for a better effect.

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jcodes57 t1_ix199ue wrote

This isn’t a sub of back testing and thought, it’d a sub of yolos man. Don’t compare your day trading to this

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kaneuens t1_ix1a164 wrote

It’s a zero sum game, for every winner there is an equal loser.

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GoofballMcyoyo t1_ix1bcmw wrote

Nobody knows; it’s all gambling. If you could just go by charts we’d all be millionaires.

Actually we wouldn’t - if it was that predictable, nobody would sell options in the first place.

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ABugsLife123456 t1_ix1f0uh wrote

Try deep ITM contracts 3-4 months out. Been making bank with SPY Puts.

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nateccs t1_ix1tqga wrote

t3chn1c@1 an@ly515

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MayoLovinApe t1_ix1ucyj wrote

Yeah but that move has to happen basically within the first few mins of buying and if it goes in the opposite direction it just roasted the fuck out of ur contracts and yr stuck holding em.

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Tay_Tay86 t1_ix1um9n wrote

For every post you see of gains keep in mind there are hundreds that are losing the same amounts. It is gambling. Your odds of success are very low. Most options expire worthless which is why wall street is selling them to you in the first place.

Option writers never intend for their contracts to go itm.

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oneenigma4u t1_ix1vs0g wrote

Again not advice. Correct usually within the first 2 hours of the day other than that everything is established and there's no chance of making anything. If it goes against you that's what stop losses are for. If they are getting into a $10 contract. Chances are they're bailing if it drops to $8 contract. Usually these are daily contracts there is no holding them. If it's not going in your direction. The only purpose of holding them is to watch it go to zero. Maybe you have a tax loss Harvest you're trying to secure. But in General within the first 2 hours of the day you should know. Not that there isn't opportunities in the mid or end of the day of some crazy news comes out. But in general the first 2 hours is the prime time. Also they are not buying with the belief that these contracts will go into the money. They are only behind them for the appreciation if the market is moving in that direction. Should something crazy happen in the Market runs into the contract. Well then that's jackpot. But most of these guys are not holding that long. As a matter of fact, I would say the professionals. Only hold for a 5% increase on their money. Successfully doing this everyday without compounding. You owe you 25% on your money by the end of the week. After the first 5% win. They said their stop loss the next day for 2%. So if it goes against them they will still have 3% from the previous day to play with the next day. This method gives them two days of trying to figure the right direction. That's conditional on the fact that their first trade was successful. Most professionals work this method all year long and just bank. Whereas WSB followers. Most of them are looking for lottery tickets. They want that multiple thousand percent gain in a day. But one of the old phrases holds true. Slow and steady wins the race.

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Daloofnasty t1_ix23z4a wrote

Just throwing it out there, if you have got the money you could just literally buy/short the actual shares. It's imho safer to cash out a small profit of shares many times, rather than hope to yolo a large move.

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fwilliams92109 t1_ix27o96 wrote

I use Webull, I use the default band settings, “length 5, width 2” so 2 standard deviations of change and middle band is moving average of 5X whatever time frame selected. What I’ve found to be important with bands is getting a feel for the different time frames and how you like to trade. Bollingers work well for me as channels, upper or lower channel, and direction of middle band. Would recommend using 5 min view, then if you start to see an opportunity, check it against V-WAP, then check it against the 30 min, 1 hour and daily view to see where the price is on all those bands. For me, if the price is at the top or bottom band on the 5 min, I look for there to be room in the other time frames for any play I make to run.

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RelativeEchidna4547 t1_ix2g8lo wrote

Bull market- I wait for a good size dip and then buy monthlies

Bear market- I wait for oversold and the thought “it cant get any higher” and then wait a week and buy puts.

That is gambling and its hella fun

I also will spend countless hours researching companies and learning them inside and out and buy 6mo to 2yr exp options on them

That is work and is not fun

Its a hobby and all play money but Im always green on the year

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middlename_neil t1_ix2g9o1 wrote

The strategy below seems to work for me. The below plus choosing trusted companies/stocks.

Falling wedges/equilibrium + oversold conditions (1-day, 4-hr, and 1hr RSI) = Calls

Rising wedges/equilibrium + overbought conditions (1-day, 4-hr, and 1-hr RSI) = Puts

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oneofakindmm t1_ix2lpoz wrote

Think about this.. if it isnt gambling and theres some patterns to them, wouldnt high frequency trading firms already take advantage of them? If there is even slightly more than 50% of working out, it'd be free money for them

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greeksgeek t1_ix2uygy wrote

What I meant is OP thinks all of the degenerate 0DTE gambles make a shit ton of money. But in reality the minority who’s lucky enough to make some tendies posts and encourages others to gamble and lose it all

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Justbeenlucky t1_ix31ugt wrote

Straddle it with 5 DTE’s over night while the volatility is high

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jamzkourt t1_ix37lsi wrote

All in 0dte at 3:00pm and pray for power hour market ripper is the way

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ORCA_OF_WALLST t1_ix3j9xx wrote

Those 2000-3000% gains are from 0dtes bought late in the afternoon.

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Bottle_Only t1_ix3ljzd wrote

Traders use dozens of strategies and indicators, scale in and out of positions rather than all in, all out and use stop losses to manage risks and limit downside.

This is how people who actually take the time to learn how to do things trade.

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Disastrous-Mango-640 t1_ix3tk2w wrote

Thank you, I play with apple covered calls and puts and just made enough to buy covered spy puts but this has been extremely helpful; I’ll go get my crayons and helmet for the ride. All in on spy.

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zerof3565 t1_ix3x993 wrote

For every $1k to $30k person, there are 30,0000 persons who failed.

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okokibuynok t1_ix41d47 wrote

Follow ur intuition and size the bet correctly. The goal is to stay in the game for the big win. Never go full regard... that's it

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TheOhioAviator t1_ix41y5b wrote

You might not be looking at the right expiry. You shouldn't be that killed by theta.

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xMriLLeST t1_ix4jec4 wrote

Have enough $ to hedge your options play.

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modsBan4Fub t1_ix4mh7z wrote

You have to have balls and have zero attachment to your money. That’s how you see them 10x it always going in on the same pot they won. People like you and I get attached at one point and let our emotions get the better of us while they just throw it in no emotions until the number is high enough that they start to fuck up and back to zero they go.

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TheOhioAviator t1_ix5m03c wrote

I'd advise you extend that. You should look to be a week or more out. View the OI and volume on options like spy at about a week + to expiry you'll see. Say 11/25 options last week. Still playable this week. But not ideal any more. You'll see volumes migrate from the 11/25 to the 12/2, maybe the 12/5. People roll their options. And if you do what I'm advising, you will see immediately that that's the thing to do. The theta barely applies, if at all really when 5+ days to expiry. Literally, do it and you'll see the difference.

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TheOhioAviator t1_ix5skn5 wrote

One of the biggest struggles for the up and coming portfolio makers. I advise you, give it a try. While you may see that the costs of the contracts are more than you want to pay for ATM options, you can, only on days which there is plenty of market news, fed weeks, econ data etc, you can, by buying OTM options, you can afford, you will be able to realize small 15-30% moves, between 30% and up to 150% on a day where spy moves 4-7 dollars in a given direction. But only then will OTM work for you. Otherwise a flat to "boring" day I call it, you have to trade ATM to make money.

You will also find that the delta on options week+ DTE, coupled with the theta, you're less at risk of serious loss over a given 10-30 min period within a 1 dollar move away from your desired strike. The delta in turn will benefit you greatly on the strike you own once it's ITM The delta gets the gains, and the theta gives you the time to maintain those gains given the market moves opposite of your strike price. Giving you more time to sell and guage your trade. Advise when trading this way maintain your eyes on the 5 min charts and cross check resistance etc, etc, with the 1 min. Double cross check both. And plan accordingly.

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TheOhioAviator t1_ix5ul35 wrote

Sure. For that example. You will tend to find the "safer" options are every 5 dollar strike. So the 405 will typically have more volume on it making it inherently "safer" to trade. IMO. Obviously if you can afford the 400 call go for that one.

I will also tell you unless direction at the open is very obvious I would advise waiting to place trades until about 10-1030. Traders trading at the open are taking gains from A.H. and PreM trading. Meaning if it's a 30+ open for the SNP then you can almost guarantee some profit taking will happen at open. Giving you access to better pricing for the solid move higher that's set up in the charts. Charts at 930 are basically useless IMO. Unless news, econ data, etc have set the days direction. Sometimes you can get a violent move at the open. If you're quick enough to get in an option going the right way you can realize huge gains at the open. Sell and be done for the day. And I mean be done for the day. No matter how much you make.

A small portfolio is limited by the day trading restrictions. You will almost guarantee, if trading at the open, you will make your gains and move on, once you move on from it you get reset mentally for the charts, watch for the action that signals the move, and buy in again. Once you sell though. You've now used 2 days trades. You can go in for another time all in that one day, but after that you're done for the next 5 days. Best to make your gains and come back to play later. There is money to be made at any time of the day. Don't focus on the open trades. They can get you in more trouble. Remember the market is open from 930-4. That's a long time for stuff to happen. That's a lot of time to make a trade. A safe trade.

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TheOhioAviator t1_ix5vhly wrote

Check it out on your platform, look at the chains 1 week out and see the options volume and OI, the difference even between them and the ones that expire tomorrow. You will see SPY options 1 week DTE with over 100k OI trading 30k volume. Those are the contracts to be on. View the theta and delta for both 1 week DTE and one that expires tomorrow. You'll see why you can't trade 1-3 DTE. It's just not "safe" IMO

1

TheOhioAviator t1_ix5wi9j wrote

Hey IMO depending on which contracts you're talking about when those monthly futures expirations come up, you might want to watch the markets, you'll find the market will love what traders are buying after, moves markets, when them bad boys come up, you can see a change of heart, bullish tendencies or bearish, adds to long term movement IMO.

1

itsmeagain1969 t1_ix6ezhf wrote

I use options as a hedge for my long positions, trading options - No thanks, markets are too manipulated and 'Theta.'

I only trade futures, in, out all done by 11 Am.

1

MyCatIsFuzzy t1_ix7rosy wrote

This is very similar to my own approach. I also almost never keep a SPY contract overnight. But with a method similar to the one described above (with a few more EMA’s and swing indicators, etc.) I rarely am not in the green each day.

1