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moMoPIZA t1_iyersvf wrote

J Pow can smell puts from miles away!

179

FuckoNo5 t1_iyex8fn wrote

This happens all the time.

Bad news happen and market runs up for a few days and then takes the shit it was supposed to take.

How else are the big guys going to get the stupid panicky guys money?

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Tandittor t1_iyf6rwv wrote

Bad news? Did you listen to Powell's speech today? Dude basically said the Fed Reserve will slow down pace (down to 50 or 25 bps) unless inflation starts rising fast again.

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SC-Fulmer t1_iyf8zsl wrote

A “slow down” in rates (aka: concave down~> 2nd Derivative)… is STILL a HIGHER RATE (aka: increase~> 1st Derivative)🤦‍♂️

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Tandittor t1_iyfdoc7 wrote

Unfortunately, the market tends to not care about your kind of interpretations of 1st and 2nd derivatives😢

EDIT:

From my other comments here (since you all seem to be implying the same things and I'm lazy to type another unique comment that provides more clarity):

>That's not how the market works. Mr. Market is forward-looking, and that is why the regards here get confused all the time when it rallies when the FOMC raise rates and CPI prints 7.7%.
>
>You need to keep an eye on TIPS, and more importantly, the futures that track the OBFR to get an idea of what is already being priced in and then compare those data to what actually happens.

​

>50 bps for Nov, yes. But confirmation that the pace will be slow from here on till terminal rate is reached and then held there was essentially confirmed today.
>
>But none of that will matter if inflation starts heading up again. That, along with the terminal rate from the December SEP, will be the next big market movers.

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Veevickavin t1_iyf8q5l wrote

Wasn’t that already priced in though? Market had decided to rally before this meeting started.

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Tandittor t1_iyfd6m4 wrote

50 bps for Nov, yes. But confirmation that the pace will be slow from here on till terminal rate is reached and then held there was essentially confirmed today.

But none of that will matter if inflation starts heading up again. That, along with the terminal rate from the December SEP, will be the next big market movers.

0

FuckoNo5 t1_iyfaggp wrote

Continuing to raise rates AT ALL is bad news.

−1

Tandittor t1_iyfc2gy wrote

That's not how the market works. Mr. Market is forward-looking, and that is why the regards here get confused all the time when it rallies when the FOMC raise rates and CPI prints 7.7%.

You need to keep an eye on TIPS, and more importantly, the futures that track the OBFR to get an idea of what is already being priced in and then compare those data to what actually happens.

7

FuckoNo5 t1_iyfdgai wrote

No one is dumping huge loads into companies who are still shrinking. That would be dumb. You wait til the bottom and then do that and with the fed saying everything borrowed is getting even more expensive the bottom is clearly not here. By a long shot.

When the fed stops raising the rates they won't just be dropping them after we reach the goal. They will hold them there for several years.

The fed is the printer but it doesn't just print those dollars to give. They are loaned and the fed is calling the debt now. It will take years of high internet loans to pay back the enormous amount we borrowed from it over the last decade.

2

Tandittor t1_iyfehr3 wrote

Never said the bottom was in.

But why are you bothering with daily and hourly moves if the bottom is what you're chasing?

3

VisualMod t1_iyeqzbe wrote

I do not recommend buying the $160 put on NVDA. The current price of NVDA is above the breakeven point, so you would likely lose money on this trade.

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113

Bully__Maguire_ t1_iyevw3w wrote

"I might have been early but I'm not wrong"

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baconography t1_iyeyix5 wrote

Would love to see Michael Burry's loss porn after today.

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20

FuckoNo5 t1_iyex0no wrote

Nah you good.

This shit tanking again either tomorrow or Monday.

21

Garweft t1_iyf248p wrote

Yeah, he literally said final rates will be higher than they thought, and will continue to rise well into next year. Not really a bullish outlook. I’ll keep playing oil to end the year.

13

FuckoNo5 t1_iyf35yz wrote

This guy has puts and the rally rallied for no goddamn reason today. His puts are a month out.

7

Traditional_Good4693 t1_iyeuk6u wrote

Ever heard of Santa rally , dude December starts tomorrow, j pow just started the rally mode to end the year. Your premiums are appreciated says market makers.

14

StevHa93 OP t1_iyeusue wrote

I was thinking Santa rally usually start after the second week of dec. Didnt expected it come early.

6

Beautiful_Cookie_639 t1_iyexdh1 wrote

So what's your next move? More puts or hop on Santa rally?

2

StevHa93 OP t1_iyexzez wrote

I don’t know yet. I’ll wait until after dec14 to make my next move. It’s 50-50 depend on how the market will go after dec14. For now I’m enduring the pain

6

nrivd t1_iyeudhl wrote

To be fair he did say could, if you needed a reason to live after today

9

VenomInfusion t1_iyewciy wrote

I’d tell u to wait till CPI and FOMC but…puts got raw fucked today. Good luck man. I hope u hedge your positions with some calls.

7

lOnlyPostWhenImDrunk t1_iyewd1k wrote

Can't even be mad, bought dec 2 exp ,77 strike puts on AMD, hoping a market sell off in the morning for a quick flip. But I could lose it all seeing how post is looking and tomorrow pre market is looking

7

WindowlessCandyVan t1_iyf2glk wrote

That’s why I sold my SPY puts at 1:27pm for a healthy 100% gain and immediately bought $400 calls at 1:29pm which are already up 100%. Fillet and lobster are on Jay tonight. Tomorrow, back to Ramen probably.

5

Garweft t1_iyf5j4u wrote

Your good, NVDA will crash back down hard. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it back under $160 by Friday, and sub $150 before the big market crash on Dec 14th. Probably looking at $110-$100 by EOY.

5

IneoMors t1_iyf5pl8 wrote

Everyone at the top already knew which way he would go today…later this week/month=bloodbath

5

Realdavidlima t1_iyezx06 wrote

Why didn’t you sell the moment powell said December’s rate hike would be lower. Spy popped up 3$ in minutes, everything in the market would pump for the rest of December, why weren’t you buying calls at that moment.

4

StevHa93 OP t1_iyf07bu wrote

I Tried to not being FOMO in and I was not expected this went down so fast from profiting to losing

2

DarkDeSantis t1_iyesfv5 wrote

Puts on NVDA?! Are you suicidal? What about a half corrected bubble makes sense to you? Listen, diamond in the rough take here, stay the fuck away from tech lol

3

StevHa93 OP t1_iyet87e wrote

I might keep it to see after dec14

8

twarr1 t1_iyeyqiu wrote

Powell just gave his buddy’s at the big banks an early Christmas gift. I’m not normally a conspiracy theorist, but all the big banks have been doing doom and gloom for the last couple of weeks and then Powell comes out and says everything is great. So, which is it?

3

AyebruhamLincoln t1_iyes2lp wrote

You bought puts on a stock that’s already down 50% this year

2

Picker-Rick t1_iyf8l57 wrote

It had to happen eventually.

What's funny is how big of a turn it made, he didn't even say they were going to stop raising rates, they're just going to raise them by slightly less...

Well, he said they might raise them by slightly less.

2

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1

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1

armen89 t1_iyf7x6y wrote

12/30. You’re fine

1

bathfinderMcFly t1_iyfab4h wrote

After being burned by the regard rally following the last cpi print, I decided to play straddles and then double down on the winning side after the market reacts. Worked out pretty well today

1

Ok_Speech_3709 t1_iyfasl2 wrote

Vix at 20 ish, bought some spy puts at eod, watch and see.

1

Neebs369 t1_iyfb28k wrote

Clearly you should have bought spy calls….

1

Grimbarbs t1_iyfbmb4 wrote

JUST FUCKING CLOSE THEM DUDE. MARKETS RIPPING

1

oxygenvoyage t1_iyfbsx4 wrote

I’m sorry for your loss :(

1

Turbiedurb t1_iyey65b wrote

You being stupid isn't Jpow's fault.

−3

Fibocrypto t1_iyesb4u wrote

Jpow wasn't the issue . You misread the market not jpow

−5