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SC-Fulmer t1_iyf8zsl wrote

Reply to comment by Tandittor in I’m so fucked for believe in JPow and his words by StevHa93

A “slow down” in rates (aka: concave down~> 2nd Derivative)… is STILL a HIGHER RATE (aka: increase~> 1st Derivative)🤦‍♂️

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Tandittor t1_iyfdoc7 wrote

Unfortunately, the market tends to not care about your kind of interpretations of 1st and 2nd derivatives😢

EDIT:

From my other comments here (since you all seem to be implying the same things and I'm lazy to type another unique comment that provides more clarity):

>That's not how the market works. Mr. Market is forward-looking, and that is why the regards here get confused all the time when it rallies when the FOMC raise rates and CPI prints 7.7%.
>
>You need to keep an eye on TIPS, and more importantly, the futures that track the OBFR to get an idea of what is already being priced in and then compare those data to what actually happens.

​

>50 bps for Nov, yes. But confirmation that the pace will be slow from here on till terminal rate is reached and then held there was essentially confirmed today.
>
>But none of that will matter if inflation starts heading up again. That, along with the terminal rate from the December SEP, will be the next big market movers.

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