DD on $DWAC Puts after Twitter Reinstatement

Submitted by EN-Fitz t3_z21vk9 in wallstreetbets

So now that Trump has access to Twitter again, let me explain the DD for getting Puts on his Truth Social app thru $DWAC.

Situation: -Trump has said he’s going to stick to TS. -Trump is contractually obligated to post on TS before anywhere else. -Trump announced run for White House. -Merger between Trump Media and $DWAC is still incomplete and is being investigated by prosecutors and regulators

Key question is: Will Trump go back on Twitter, dooming TS?

Why he’ll end up back on Twitter and abandon TS: -Since he’s running for office again, its going to be VERY difficult for him to resist using Twitter and reaching out to his 80m followers vs 4.5m on TS -Trump wants to shore up his base after some Republicans blame him for mediocre midterm results for their party. -Trump has only stayed on TS per obligation.

Conclusion: -As time passes, Trump will eventually give in and go back to Twitter, especially so he can get back in the media and political limelight. Thereby taking away the one thing propping $DWAC up, himself.

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VisualMod t1_ixe1adi wrote

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Hey /u/EN-Fitz, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: Short $DWAC by buying Puts as Trump will go back on Twitter, dooming TS.

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VisualMod t1_ixe1b7n wrote

>I agree with your analysis that Trump is likely to go back to Twitter eventually. However, I think it's important to consider the possibility that he may not. If he does stick with TS, then $DWAC will continue to benefit from his presence and could see a boost in its stock price.

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BYE_HI_SELL_LOW t1_ixe1pcd wrote

“I met Donald Trump once. It was in the back of a Wendy’s and he insisted on meeting there to give me a good tip. Best tip I’ve ever received!”

-img

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WallStLoser t1_ixe1sic wrote

puts are expensive for DWAC, and there is a high risk of it mooning for some stupid reason. I agree fundamentally it's almost worthless, if the premium wasn't so high I'd be in.

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EN-Fitz OP t1_ixe31gw wrote

Replying to VisualMod (#619,526)

A short run indictor would be whether the merger gets finished by its 12/8 deadline or if the vote to merge fails. $DWAC could push the deadline again, but it would need another sponsor contribution like the $2.9m that pushed the 9/8 deadline.

0

BobtheReplier t1_ixe81x2 wrote

Trump has to TS head start before he post on Twitter. TS isn't going anywhere. IMHO and not financial advice.

3

dan5138 t1_ixecjem wrote

What would keep trump from not following the contract? Trump isnt known for sticking with contracts, he could just tie the deal up in court in perpetuity.

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Careless-Pin-2852 t1_ixevrcj wrote

Puts on DWAC are too expensive. Unless it goes to 0 you lose money. It has a floor of like $10

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i_seII_DMT_carts t1_ixf6cob wrote

Replying to WallStLoser (#619,580)

>there is a high risk of it mooning for some stupid reason

i'd say with what's going on with twitter lately... it kinda makes sense. elon is literally talking about bankruptcy. im sure there will be a big influx of users if that happens

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SuchKeyboardCourage t1_ixfjnt7 wrote

Trump doesn't need to post to Twitter. The media is already headlining his Truth posts for him. It also seems that those desperate to "Get Trump" continue to spearhead his popularity by covering everything he says.

They play right into his hands every time.

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aka0007 t1_ixfk35o wrote

Not a bad idea... My biggest concern is they have $300M cash and their cash burn has so far been pretty low. If they run a lean operation the book value may remain too high to necessarily see the stock price plummet much.

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Grimbarbs t1_ixgfdy0 wrote

bruh it literally broke a yearly downtrend. Until it hits 64 gap, at the veryyyy least within next 1-6 months, no puts

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EL__TEE t1_ixqs7ze wrote

TS Sept views: 11 million

Twitter Sept views: 9 billion

Trump is no fool. He will dump TS soon enough, prob after Dec meeting.

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