DD on $DWAC Puts after Twitter Reinstatement

Submitted by EN-Fitz t3_z21vk9 in wallstreetbets

So now that Trump has access to Twitter again, let me explain the DD for getting Puts on his Truth Social app thru $DWAC.

Situation: -Trump has said he’s going to stick to TS. -Trump is contractually obligated to post on TS before anywhere else. -Trump announced run for White House. -Merger between Trump Media and $DWAC is still incomplete and is being investigated by prosecutors and regulators

Key question is: Will Trump go back on Twitter, dooming TS?

Why he’ll end up back on Twitter and abandon TS: -Since he’s running for office again, its going to be VERY difficult for him to resist using Twitter and reaching out to his 80m followers vs 4.5m on TS -Trump wants to shore up his base after some Republicans blame him for mediocre midterm results for their party. -Trump has only stayed on TS per obligation.

Conclusion: -As time passes, Trump will eventually give in and go back to Twitter, especially so he can get back in the media and political limelight. Thereby taking away the one thing propping $DWAC up, himself.

8

Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

WallStLoser t1_ixe1sic wrote

puts are expensive for DWAC, and there is a high risk of it mooning for some stupid reason. I agree fundamentally it's almost worthless, if the premium wasn't so high I'd be in.

15

colddeadplacee t1_ixg6kfp wrote

No catalysts, only downsides from now to sep 2023.

Imo even a successful merger is a downside lol.

3

i_seII_DMT_carts t1_ixf6cob wrote

>there is a high risk of it mooning for some stupid reason

i'd say with what's going on with twitter lately... it kinda makes sense. elon is literally talking about bankruptcy. im sure there will be a big influx of users if that happens

2

WallStLoser t1_ixhzxco wrote

>elon is literally talking about bankruptcy

I think that statement was given a much heavier weighting in the media than was intended by Elon.

1

i_seII_DMT_carts t1_ixjjjmy wrote

Yeah, I think he mainly said that to excuse the whole "pay to use twitter" thing.

1

VisualMod t1_ixe1b7n wrote

>I agree with your analysis that Trump is likely to go back to Twitter eventually. However, I think it's important to consider the possibility that he may not. If he does stick with TS, then $DWAC will continue to benefit from his presence and could see a boost in its stock price.

5

EN-Fitz OP t1_ixe31gw wrote

A short run indictor would be whether the merger gets finished by its 12/8 deadline or if the vote to merge fails. $DWAC could push the deadline again, but it would need another sponsor contribution like the $2.9m that pushed the 9/8 deadline.

0

BYE_HI_SELL_LOW t1_ixe1pcd wrote

“I met Donald Trump once. It was in the back of a Wendy’s and he insisted on meeting there to give me a good tip. Best tip I’ve ever received!”

-img

4

BobtheReplier t1_ixe81x2 wrote

Trump has to TS head start before he post on Twitter. TS isn't going anywhere. IMHO and not financial advice.

3

AutoModerator t1_ixe81xx wrote

PUT YOUR HANDS UP BobtheReplier!!! POLICE ARE ENROUTE! PREPARE TO BE BOOKED FOR PROVIDING ILLEGAL FINANCIAL ADVICE!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

3

NewAltProfAccount t1_ixen1fz wrote

It is just not worth anything. Twitter loses money, how will TS make money? Less users and no interested advertisers.

2

dan5138 t1_ixecjem wrote

What would keep trump from not following the contract? Trump isnt known for sticking with contracts, he could just tie the deal up in court in perpetuity.

2

Careless-Pin-2852 t1_ixevrcj wrote

Puts on DWAC are too expensive. Unless it goes to 0 you lose money. It has a floor of like $10

2

VisualMod t1_ixe1adi wrote

User Report
Total Submissions 1 First Seen In WSB 1 year ago
Total Comments 3 Previous Best DD
Account Age 1 year [^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) [^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
Vote Spam Click to Vote Vote Approve Click to Vote

Check out the new wallstreetbets discord

Hey /u/EN-Fitz, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: Short $DWAC by buying Puts as Trump will go back on Twitter, dooming TS.

1

SuchKeyboardCourage t1_ixfjnt7 wrote

Trump doesn't need to post to Twitter. The media is already headlining his Truth posts for him. It also seems that those desperate to "Get Trump" continue to spearhead his popularity by covering everything he says.

They play right into his hands every time.

1

aka0007 t1_ixfk35o wrote

Not a bad idea... My biggest concern is they have $300M cash and their cash burn has so far been pretty low. If they run a lean operation the book value may remain too high to necessarily see the stock price plummet much.

1

Grimbarbs t1_ixgfdy0 wrote

bruh it literally broke a yearly downtrend. Until it hits 64 gap, at the veryyyy least within next 1-6 months, no puts

1

EL__TEE t1_ixqs7ze wrote

TS Sept views: 11 million

Twitter Sept views: 9 billion

Trump is no fool. He will dump TS soon enough, prob after Dec meeting.

1