I'm so tired of correcting the "experts define a recession as two quarters of negative GDP" bullshit. LOL

I especially hate the "the white house changed the definition" idiocy.

A recession has been a broad-based decline across the economy for a long time. The NBER didn't change the definition for this drawdown. It was this way when I started taking econ courses for my degree 25 years ago. I'd say I'm having a Mandela Effect moment, but the NBER's definition remains that it requires a broad-based economic pullback for a recession.

The thing people say to defend this is "GDP IS the economy, dummy" which is bullshit. A macro score of overall productivity? Sure... a sign of overall economic weakness? GDP can decline because of cyclical events as certain sectors of the economy retract, but others can have strength at the same time, which is pretty much what we saw during the two negative quarters this year.

We tell people to look for two quarters because it's a lot easier than explaining what a broad-based pullback in economic activity is and, frankly, people glaze over and often don't get it... and GDP usually goes up. The GDP rule is an indicator of potential coming weakness. Just an indicator, not a definition of a recession... but somehow this BS became a truism.

Weirdly, you can also have a recession with positive GDP once you've entered the decline because GDP growth/retraction is inherently relative... this is the danger of just using GDP, and why it's important not to declare one until you have solid data.

The whole exercise feels silly to me, too. Like... what's the use of trying to pinpoint whether we're in a recession right?

Do we need to do that to consider risk to equities? I mean, yes, it's important to keep an eye on expectations around a recession... but we know they're there. Anyone who can read a chart (which I guess lots of people on this sub can't, so there's that LOL) knows the market's in a downtrend experiencing heavy risk of potential capitulation... and the truth is no matter what we guess, whether we enter a recession this year or not or have already started one, the hedge is basically the same. The risk is basically the same entering into the year... and when that risk level changes, it's gonna be based on information we don't have right now.

So like... what's the fuckin' point of trying to call a recession early besides the political axes some people are grinding?

Anyway... just wrote that to supplement your post.