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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cbs23 wrote

Reply to comment by ErectoPeentrounus in 12-30-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly (and yearly) Market Recap and Analysis by DaddyDersch

A dump or a pump?

Currently forecast (not consensus) has MoM at 0.1% which id have to confirm but last time i looked put yoy estimated at 6.5%ish. That would be another huge decrease in cpi

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2ce5r3 wrote

interesting that’s a 0.6% decline which lines up with the current slope. I think we come higher. Even at no increase MoM. it’s 0.3 yoy so like a 6.7 I think we see and a crash. So ideally a CPI estimate sub 6.5 so a 6.4 low ball would set us up for a failure since even at the current slope we would miss. would also mark first cpi lower than its 2021 counter part.

A second methodology: Nov was 7.1 counter part was 6.8

Rn counter part is 7 which would narrow the yoy down 2 assuming no inflation. So relatively speaking it’ll comes at 6.9

So my range will be 6.7-6.9 for an estimate.

Wiggle room is 6.6-7.0

So a 6.5 estimate or lower would cause a dump if I’m jumbling my math correctly. But we’ll rule out the 6.5 and make it’s a 6.4 if current slope persists.

In conclusion 6.4 and below is safe to say a crash. 6.6-6.9 is a dice roll. 7 is an easy pump beat.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ces8m wrote

Why would an extra low (6.4) cpi reading cause a dump tho? A good cpi reading would be taken bullushly no?

Granted we need to factor in core and mom. But why would an even extra low compared to normal reading cause a crash?

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2cg4y7 wrote

I’m saying a 6.4 estimate my bad if unclear.

I think CPI will come 6.6-6.9 and to be safe in my personal estimate we can call it 6.5-7 though 6.6 was already a semi safe bet.

I’m saying if the CPI estimate from wallstreet is 6.4 then off of my personal estimates the CPI will come higher than wallstreet has priced in which will be a “hot” CPI.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ch755 wrote

Ah okay. That makes more sense. I wasnt tracking there at all.

Realistic with previous cpi being 7.1% as long as estimate is 6.9 or lower we should "beat."

But again markets eventually are going to start focusing on core again which has been the biggest struggler and had the most rebounds. I also wonder when markets will care about the fact that MoM cpi is still rising

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2dh0s9 wrote

I mean markets do what they want regardless of data, data is a good excuse. If they set us up intentionally for a miss then it would be a good bet to see markets need and excuse to tank. Thing is they can’t run the whole “pivot” talk anymore since dot plot was released and first cut is confirmed by years end. So nothing sooner will be priced in. Now we will start worrying more about a recession and suh

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2dkr0g wrote

Gotta see what consensus comes in at. We could definitely get set up for a dump. But im not expecting that just yet. But we shall see.

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2dmi57 wrote

yea this next year is tough ngl. February and march are easy to guess as dumps. January is the dice roll since there’s a wide range of how far it can pull back.

Kinda curious since I know u keep track of data but how often are the JPM collar targets reached by the stock are some point during the quarter.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2dmndb wrote

Looking at previous collars from this year... the week after is usually a consolidation week. Then the week after that starts the move and that move usually lasts about 7 weeks.

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2dnbrc wrote

Interesting. FOMC on feb 1st so I wonder how that will turn out. I just need a ~300% to get my portfolio back. Shits been painful

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