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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ckrqb wrote

Reply to comment by arpatel530 in 12-30-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly (and yearly) Market Recap and Analysis by DaddyDersch

Im pretty indifferent about it. Before this week i had a pretty clear cut scenario of spy touching 320 by march. Honestly im not as convinced now.

Unless we get an actual catalyst to push us down like that and that could be some terrible earnings, a huge cpi rebound, jpow being bearish again or your standard black swan. But honestly right now im scratching my head on what is going to cause markets to dip that hard an low.

Most of the cycle sell offs this year have been event oriented with most being cpi/ fomc. But unless something changes i dont see that same level of fear to drop us. Of course sentiment can and will change. I dont think we see ath either but im thinking we could lock into a bigger range like 380 to 410 and spend a ling time consolidating there.

We arent quite bullish enough to make the markets rip and for big money to come back in but also arent quite bearish enough for people to sell aggressively again

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arpatel530 t1_j2clhsc wrote

I think the real drop to 3200 will be mid part of the year when we get earnings miss, proper earnings revisions downward and finally the effects of interest rate hikes. At that time, I'm hoping to see real panic to flush out all the over leveraged folks.

Right now we are getting 4% risk free and we should be 5% next year when Fed finally hits it's rate target. Rather that then trying to get an extra 3% for equities (assuming 8% historical annual gains).

Also we finally get a proper bear market lasting longer than 18 months.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cn32p wrote

I do wonder if we see q1 turn out better than expected and mid to late spring cpi starts rebounding with worse q2 eanrings to start a leg down

I wanna be bearish but markets were clear that 378 was the line

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arpatel530 t1_j2ct0a9 wrote

No it wasn't. It was JPM dumb collar. Markets go where big funds have their options.

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