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arpatel530 t1_j2clhsc wrote

Reply to comment by DaddyDersch in 12-30-22 SPY/ ES Futures and Tesla Weekly (and yearly) Market Recap and Analysis by DaddyDersch

I think the real drop to 3200 will be mid part of the year when we get earnings miss, proper earnings revisions downward and finally the effects of interest rate hikes. At that time, I'm hoping to see real panic to flush out all the over leveraged folks.

Right now we are getting 4% risk free and we should be 5% next year when Fed finally hits it's rate target. Rather that then trying to get an extra 3% for equities (assuming 8% historical annual gains).

Also we finally get a proper bear market lasting longer than 18 months.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cn32p wrote

I do wonder if we see q1 turn out better than expected and mid to late spring cpi starts rebounding with worse q2 eanrings to start a leg down

I wanna be bearish but markets were clear that 378 was the line

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arpatel530 t1_j2ct0a9 wrote

No it wasn't. It was JPM dumb collar. Markets go where big funds have their options.

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