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Potential_Project_48 t1_j2f51ct wrote

We are going to pay HEAVY taxes this year, my friend. Sucks.

Anyways, I personally have been bullish on the technical side, that we have to hit at least 390 before we can begin the next leg down.

The issue of course, is when.

This last week, I think has been pure noise and driven primarily by MM flows and algos, next week will be interesting what happens when the big boys come back...

Cem Karsan has been absolutely on point all this year, and he says that until Jan 10, the market is to move sideways with a slight bearish directionality. After Jan 10, he said we are going to have a big bear market rally, and then the big one (crash) to come after OPEX sometime by March.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2f5944 wrote

What are taxes? **** but for real uncle sam gonna make bank

Jan 10th lines up with cpi on the 12th. A pretty significant cpi beat could start a nice rally

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Potential_Project_48 t1_j2f6wb7 wrote

Taxes, if that's not enough, the quarterly obligations suck ass for the interest charged on them if not paid...

Yeah, that's exactly why he predicts that. He even said the capitulation could be delayed until mid year as well to July. Reason being that vol sellers have completely pushed skew to the zero percentile, and they will continue to do so. Interest rate shocks take a long time to move through the system. Optimism can pick up and we even break out of the downward trendline as it seems that we are indeed getting a soft landing along with fed pause...

Until the unprecedented tightening hike effects finally burst through the pipeline, the shit hits the fan, and we enter a depression. Crash.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2fa9yf wrote

I truly an weighing the odds that we consolidate from 3600 to 4100 for most of 2033

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Potential_Project_48 t1_j2fcqpu wrote

That would be max pain...just like the 1970s lost decade... And that's the most similar bear market we are in...at least 2022 had a down direction, next years going to suck, I can already taste it

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2fnp1x wrote

Im trying to decide if a true just solid non fucked market wide and year or two long consolidation period would be harder or easier to trade than this years bullshit market

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