Submitted by DaddyDersch t3_zzdlbg in wallstreetbets

What an ABSOULTE WILD year this has been… if you are still here right now and you still have money left in your account… congrats because let me tell you this has been one of the hardest years to trade that many of us in our life times will ever trade.

The goal of 2022 was and remained capital preservation if you accomplished that goal… then congrats. The goal of 2023 in my opinion is the same… capital preservation… There is going to someday be another bull market and even if its not a bullmarket… there will someday be another market that is more rational and more obeying of the technicals. Live to trade another day…

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https://preview.redd.it/a04gijzj349a1.png?width=419&format=png&auto=webp&s=fac01ab796e7b2bd13d07d560987beb4aea5d9f8

here is the new JPM collar btw!

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https://preview.redd.it/k60hu6hk349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2e4865329f67183df32d0d5abd22adc53729819

I mentioned this pattern yesterday in my TA on SPY. With 378 clearly being “bottom” for the foreseeable future I envision this to be our next pattern to play out. This would give us a rally in January. I would start to eye a retest of 405 to 415 area through the month of January.

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https://preview.redd.it/lyd00xwk349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d660be22e451d52ce200aaafb64b44f1c12fcdfb

I started to analyze the 2022 bear channel weekly movement. When we take a look at it you can see we have this cycle of peak at channel resistance -> short drop -> short peak -> full dump -> retest of channel resistance. We have been in this pattern all year long. We did however, break through that channel resistance of the 2022 bear channel the day of CPI. However we fell through it and we have not touched it since.

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https://preview.redd.it/fv3enibl349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaa5779e08b3f4ca19bbcc6e3969c038c3c258fa

Taking a look at the cycle you can we just had a 21 day 8.7% drop for our first short drop… this SHOULD be followed up with about 50-75% of the length and 56% of the distance recovery… so that means we should be looking at about a 10-14 day 4.8% recovery minimum.

That would put SPY at the week of 1/16 to 1/20 near 393 minimum. 393 on the weekly timeframe is actually the red bear channels resistance line. That is my target for next week.

Taking a look at the structure of the last two weekly candles you can see they are back to back gravestone dojis that came down and bounced off that 376 area and their candle bodies held support at 383 level too.

We have been waiting for the 390 resistance retest and I believe that is our target for next week.

Key support- 375.6 -> 363.7
key resistance- 390.1 -> 398.8

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https://preview.redd.it/a4raa8vl349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=597005f9e949d32193ba9ba437dfd3c3bee413f1

Taking a look at the futures daily chart you can see we are in a massive breakout pattern right here. We did double top off that 3870 key level, however, as you can see we closed out with a massive wick to the downside. With this close this should be seen as a bullish candle for Monday. I would be shocked to not see us breakout over 3870 Tuesday and I will be eyeing a touch of 3910 to 3920. That would be a 1.1 to 1.3% green day on Tuesday.

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https://preview.redd.it/9litiegm349a1.png?width=694&format=png&auto=webp&s=e899a916e30a8ff2f93c54808754ec29aafc5bee

Besides the June quarterly the last 3 out of 4 quarterlies have opened green. The biggest open was 1.1% at the September quarterly and the lowest is 0.28% for an average of 0.58% green open on the day after quarterly.

Something else I had noted for Tuesday DTE options is that the IV closed in the 11s. This is VERY low for SPY IV. Generally almost every morning opens with an IV of 25-30% and slowly ends around 20%. With an IV pump and high probability green open I found a call swing worth the risk for Tuesday. That was also a very bullish finish to the day, week and year. The bears no matter how many times they tried to break us down the last two weeks were not able to.

My only hope for 2023 is that we finally get some real direction and that the technicals come back into play better.

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https://preview.redd.it/9o21nlzm349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b38e02a1533c39be3d4bb75a7ab01a087ea7c75b

I mentioned the inverse head and shoulders on SPY daily and honestly its kinda ugly but I do see it forming here on futures weekly. I could see us reading 4200 by middle of February.

As bearish as I want to be and as bearish as I believe the markets tried to be today it just couldn’t do it. The bears do not have the momentum right now to break us down further.

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https://preview.redd.it/aw7m1won349a1.png?width=1113&format=png&auto=webp&s=1dd38e615e1a7693b081694a0dbc2332d0df8231

A couple important things to note ahead in the month of January.

First up on Wednesday (2 days into the new trading year!) we have FOMC minutes (I will have a detailed trade plan posted sometime this weekend for that!)… followed the next day by ADP followed by unemployment rate (The last three have resulted in 1%+/- openings)… And then finally the week after that we have CPI on Thursday January 12th.

A big first two weeks of the year. The question is…. Will FOMC minutes remind the market of how bearish JPOW was or much like in November where we had a massive red FOMC the markets didn’t care and we ripped on FOMC minutes hitting the wire.

I remain going forward bullish until markets prove me otherwise… things that COULD prove me otherwise… 1. Closing AND holding below 378. 2. VIX popping and holding over 25+ or 3. A huge miss on CPI. I don’t at this moment forsee any of those coming true…

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https://preview.redd.it/nup9bq5o349a1.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=6150120f5b2c6b522d458bbbe68b03b3d237db3c

And then there was… Tesla….

After absolutely being slammed the whole month of December I have to give it to the tesla bulls and say they finished on a very positive note!

Taking a look at our cycles we can officially say we have closed out our downward cycle on Tuesday. That remains the longest and biggest drop tesla has seen during this sell off period.

Looking at the trend we should be expecting about a 4 day 14% rally. However, we have to remember that Tesla put in double its usual sell off… perhaps we get double the recovery?

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https://preview.redd.it/08ws3kpo349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2c3b4309647308b917fb9f58d453fd76a4e67e3

Taking a look at the tesla daily I have to say this candle body structure is both impressive and confusing. Yesterday Tesla put in a 8.08% green bullish day… however, today only putting in 1.12% green actually was a bullish engulfing candle of a green candle. That is not something you see too often at all.

Things to note here is that we are sitting at key 123.2 resistance and we did not quite touch the daily 8ema. SPY is going to need to breakout over the daily 8ema in order for me to be bullish more than Tuesday. However, if this is a double recovery on Tesla we could be looking for sometime before 1/9 for Tesla to retest the 136 to 140 area.

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https://preview.redd.it/fhf3tw7p349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3ed06303de64e8aadabb3aaab2e6bd93b692c8d

I mentioned last week in my weekly TA that tesla is in a cycle of 3 red weeks followed by a recovery/ consolidation week before the next leg down. Taking a look at the weekly here Tesla could have an impressive pop all the way to 147 and still be in that broadened red bear channel.

There also should be noted a critical bounce occurred off that 11.4 support that dates back to 2020. With that level holding and Tesla receiving a decent bounce and forming this possible morning star doji I am bullish for tesla going into the first week of the year.

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https://preview.redd.it/7r6z6m9q349a1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbb1a082433f7fbbac33dc4e86d6f3d5526397ea

The VIX has been detached from reality but at times the structure remains impressively accurate. We failed now for 6 days in a row for the VIX to close a candle over 22.2. With these 6 rejections here (in addition to the 8 out of 9 last daily candles that have held 3845 support on futures) I remain once again bullish for next week.

This evening doji star pattern formed here on the VIX should take the VIX down to about 21.2 Tuesday. We as you can see inside of this blue bear channel are maintaining a breakout/down triangle also. Unless the VIX opens over 22 (+1.5%) at open and all day that will be a break through of support and that should start the next leg down on the VIX and subsequently the next leg up on the markets. This movement should take us into CPI week.

Year in review

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https://preview.redd.it/unq20crq349a1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=36c4cbf85b5c9f967eb56b8774f77a6710408383

Before someone says why am I not posting a broker screenshot… well I have moved money throughout the year and also changed brokers and accounts during the year and I frequently take money out of my options account. I also couldn’t find data from January as I was still working full time back then and didn’t keep records like I do now.

But taking a look at this the biggest thing that strikes me here is a few things. 1. The fact that my worst weeks win rate was during a green week is crazy to me. But this was back in February when we had those massive $10-$14 days and we could pick up 100-150% wins like it was easy. Aint doing that shit no more that’s for sure.

The other thing that is intriguing to me is that my average win rate on a losing and winning week is only a 6% difference. Tells you the overall power of stop losses. Also intriguing and I think really makes a statement is the fact that I had a really 2.5 month long stretch of straight struggling was still able to close out a really green year. This is where small wins over time average out to be huge wins. There is no reason to look for massive win after massive win. And if you have a really bad stretch that is okay its not the end of the world.

Something else that really helped me this year too is that when I noticed I was struggling in June I sized down heavily on my position size and I still have not sized back up yet fully to that full position size I was using up until June.

Overall a pretty great year despite the bullshit that 2022 presented us. I look forward to 2023 and I hope whether bull, bear or flat that we can at least get a market that is rational and obeys the technicals.

Daily log-

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https://preview.redd.it/2sn3kecr349a1.png?width=792&format=png&auto=webp&s=5db5793dc1529e618db602f229c94e0e827d5a34

Pretty light trading today. Had that really nice swing win over night which covered some earlier losses in the week. After that the tight morning range and the absolutely mind numbingly boring price action I didn’t trade a whole lot. Took a lotto put around that big after noon dump time and took a nice win. Closed around 22% and it went on to be well over 100%...

Overall honestly despite closing a green week (mostly thanks to that swing put over night… I really didn’t feel like I had my best week of trading. I would have liked to have a better week than I did but I felt like iw as struggling with the technicals this week. Felt like by time my setup finally signal a buy for something the move either never happened or it just straight reversed on us. Even today during PH which granted this was expected to be a highly volatile PH… the 315pm candle was red and a massive gravestone doji rejecting off a key resistance level. With that double top the 1min, 5min and 15min all being overbought and volume switching over to sell… we should have seen a bigger drop but what did we see? We saw a huge pop of another 0.6% in the last 30 minutes.

Weeks like this as someone who trades with a clear cut and dry strategy it makes it extremely hard to take positions. I find myself looking at price action alone and seeing trades develop but being unable to take those trades because of how the indicators are presenting themselves.

Tough week for sure. Hoping now that we got the collar rolled, tax loss harvesting is over and everything that we can finally see some normalcy in the markets again next week.

I wish each and every one of you a happy new years! I will see you guys on Tuesday!

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Comments

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BugTotal6212 t1_j2bkq20 wrote

Impressive gainz. Your bullish sentiment doesn't make my puts feel good. Have 380p 2/17 and apple 120p 6/30. If I sell we dump and I hold we rip. Fml

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Sbmagnolia t1_j2blnov wrote

Congrats and we all appreciate your daily insight.

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RockmanMike t1_j2book2 wrote

Cathie screwed my TSLA puts, so it's only fair I screw her...

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areyoume29 t1_j2bp27m wrote

That jpm collar is interesting this time around. I started looking for the trade around 1pm. I didn't realize Jpm's trade was executed after 4 pm. today. I noticed there was an inverse of the jpm trade at 13:45 hours when an institution inversed the jpm collar and sold the 3600p and bought the 4030c. It's not a terrible trade considering the 3835c jpm sold 3 months ago maxed out at over 25k on December 1st. It's actually funny. jpm got pinned today, which hasn't happened in the last year.

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Beautiful_Cookie_639 t1_j2bqwt6 wrote

I hope you're right about it going up near 390 or 400 next week. If it does, it will make Feb/March puts extremely cheap and I'd feel super comfortable getting Feb/March puts

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madavison t1_j2btvap wrote

If Tesla deliveries are trash on Tuesday, is it a red day?

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2bucac wrote

Could be a buy the rumor sell the news. ELON seemed like there was a ton of vehicles coming in so it might be good data. Honestly last release was good data too but they got in my opinion wrongfully hit

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Crim3mast3rZ t1_j2bvmhu wrote

I'm going to scalp a cheap spx call 40$ otm Tuesday and see what happens

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KKrum41302 t1_j2bvwro wrote

TSLA deliveries may unironically set the tone for where we open Tuesday, similar to the beginning of this year.

I’m a little wary of taking away too much from this week’s action just because of the amount of technical bullshit going on (tax loss selling, fund rebalancing/window dressing, JPM collar, little economic data/fedspeak, low liquidity, etc.). But it definitely feels like we’re gonna break hard one way or the other once January is underway.

My own personal bias is break down, but that weekly chart is looking kinda bullish ngl

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Mr_Snow___ t1_j2bzvxq wrote

that many of us in our life times will ever trade.

2023: hold my beer

here is the new JPM collar btw!

JPM sets the market? Interesting...

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mogambuu t1_j2c9vze wrote

Congrats on the great year and thanks for posting the daily analysis. I hope for a better 2023.

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letitrainchaos t1_j2cawqj wrote

So moving forward into the new year... are you going to finally post your results via trading platform? No more excuses, if you are selling a service, prove that it works with your real P/L imo

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cberj wrote

I dont believe ive made any excuses actually... ive give reasons why i do things the way i do.

The way i track my daily, weekly and monthly trade logs allows me to look at it in a macro way like i presented and it also allows me to look at it in a micro way. Tracking it and presenting it how i do allows me in times of drawdown to review my trades and see what i could have done better or worse. And in the end i dont even have to show or present my daily logs or daily trades.... i also fail to see most traders do it as consistently and openly as i do everyday...

I track my trades and present them for me... not everyone else...

The one change i am considering making is adding a time slot. I wanna further analyze if there is a specific time of day im better or worse at trading

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Ok_Paramedic5096 t1_j2cch0c wrote

Can one of you helpful mother pleasers please explain to me why the fed funds rate is 4.25% but a 1-month treasury sells for 3.875%.

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2ce5r3 wrote

interesting that’s a 0.6% decline which lines up with the current slope. I think we come higher. Even at no increase MoM. it’s 0.3 yoy so like a 6.7 I think we see and a crash. So ideally a CPI estimate sub 6.5 so a 6.4 low ball would set us up for a failure since even at the current slope we would miss. would also mark first cpi lower than its 2021 counter part.

A second methodology: Nov was 7.1 counter part was 6.8

Rn counter part is 7 which would narrow the yoy down 2 assuming no inflation. So relatively speaking it’ll comes at 6.9

So my range will be 6.7-6.9 for an estimate.

Wiggle room is 6.6-7.0

So a 6.5 estimate or lower would cause a dump if I’m jumbling my math correctly. But we’ll rule out the 6.5 and make it’s a 6.4 if current slope persists.

In conclusion 6.4 and below is safe to say a crash. 6.6-6.9 is a dice roll. 7 is an easy pump beat.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ces8m wrote

Why would an extra low (6.4) cpi reading cause a dump tho? A good cpi reading would be taken bullushly no?

Granted we need to factor in core and mom. But why would an even extra low compared to normal reading cause a crash?

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cexfu wrote

Technically the collar is direction neutral but i feel unless we see a repeat of june it presents a more bullish tone. But it still is neutral. Its not placed by my understanding to be directional. But calls at 4030 or whatever it is almost guaranteeds are some point we see 4100-4200

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cfhgu wrote

I actually didnt divert it you just didnt get the answer you wanted.

I post plenty of sceenshots from my trades live of my broker and of my bot at times depending. I cant advertise it here and dont wanna risk a ban mentioning it but there is a place where that all happens live and one could audit me live and gets to see sceenshots from my wins and losses.

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2cg4y7 wrote

I’m saying a 6.4 estimate my bad if unclear.

I think CPI will come 6.6-6.9 and to be safe in my personal estimate we can call it 6.5-7 though 6.6 was already a semi safe bet.

I’m saying if the CPI estimate from wallstreet is 6.4 then off of my personal estimates the CPI will come higher than wallstreet has priced in which will be a “hot” CPI.

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Nolimon1 t1_j2cgckl wrote

Technically I’m seeing Fed funds rate of 4.33 today, but close enough… Fed funds rate is a volume weighted median of all treasuries sold and reported in some specific report (not quite sure if it is indeed all sells or just a sample). So it includes longer term securities like 3 month, 6 month, 12 month that have higher yields than the one month

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cgzxq wrote

No. As i have mentioned above and numerous times i post my daily log for me and honestly as a courtesy to those who dont see the trades live. I track my trades the way i do because it benefits me.

Ive posted numerous account pics and sceenshots and other things through the year and regularly. And again a p/l statement when you frequently take money out of an account is pointless.

I could open a robinhood account and deposit 100k and show you a pretty dope 1y p/l. P/l statements unless its an account you never transfer funds from and never do anything but trade and grow is never going to give you the full picture anyways.

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Ok_Paramedic5096 t1_j2ch1ui wrote

Fed funds rate affects what the immediate rate a bank offers loans at as well a the rate they set for their over night reverse repot operations. My point still stands, why is their reverse repo market paying out at 4.25% and treasury security auctions for 1MO securities coming in at 3.875%

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ch755 wrote

Ah okay. That makes more sense. I wasnt tracking there at all.

Realistic with previous cpi being 7.1% as long as estimate is 6.9 or lower we should "beat."

But again markets eventually are going to start focusing on core again which has been the biggest struggler and had the most rebounds. I also wonder when markets will care about the fact that MoM cpi is still rising

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Schwei5 t1_j2chylk wrote

Happy Nee Years! Your info has been very useful and the most interesting read each day. These JP Morgan collars are intriguing too. Does everyone do these? Do they only set them on SPY? How do you know the levels? Seems like the heavy hitters set these and it moves the markets more than I realized. I’m not to bullish on Tesla after hearing Ben Rickert and Bill Gates positions. Would these guys have a collar on Tesla too or am I way off on this strategy? Keep us the Awesome Analysis!

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ci83c wrote

Im sure other big banks/ brokers are doing similiar trades.... Honesty its a good question that maybe ill research this weekend in why jpm is the lucky one that gets to decide. But honestly before 2022 no one careed about the collar much either as it didnt really matter in my opinion.

Its set on SPX not spy.

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letitrainchaos t1_j2cis1t wrote

It is quite obvious you are posting your excel logs here and on your discord specific channel as a marketing tool. Saying its just for yourself is disingenuous. You are offering free trials and charging people, this is your business. You went off tangent instead of answering my simple request. Its not so hard to do a weekly or monthly screenshot of your p/l or trade summary. Many platforms have these features. You seem to know your market audience because most of the wsb members are easily manipulative. Just going through your discord chats explains what kind of people buy into your business model. Basically, tell us a yes or no.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cjmp7 wrote

I dont see where im manipulating anyone? But you are entitled to your opinion.

I do post my trading log the way i do because it is whats best for me to track my trades and be able to each day and week analyze my trades.

I didnt go off tangent. I answered your question you just didnt like the answer you got. No i have no desire to post screenshots of my actual account balance every single day. I dont need to do that and honestly the final amounts in my accounts really is private. I am fairly transparent in my opinion compared to most traders who only post their wins and you never see them shows their loses or periods of drawdown...

If its not good enough for you thats okay. But to say im manipulating people is just a blatant lie. I provide analysis of the markets and i also provide when i enter and exit trades. Its that simple. Someone either wishes to follow my analysis and trades or they dont. They either follow my analysis/ trades and make money or they lose money. Its actually pretty black and white. People either find value in what i do or they dont. Nobodies forcing anyone to do anything 🤷‍♂️

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ck14i wrote

You know whats really intriguing... all three of you commenting just so happen to be part of the same Valorant community and all of you have very low post and comment karma... little sus and spammy if you ask me...

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letitrainchaos t1_j2ck72e wrote

You totally lost your cool here. I never said you manipulated anyone and never requested you to do daily screenshots. Reread my comments and leave your emotions, defensive gas lighting reply out of it. My question remained simple and you answered it after being questioned specifically for the x time and you did it with an essay bro

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arpatel530 t1_j2cka0r wrote

I agree we rally into earnings for January and then we fall down and finally break the 2022 lows into March. April, May stay flat and then drop hard in June and July at which time I'm hoping we are -20% ytd again so puts us at 3000/3200 spy mark.

Not going long until we see actual pivot and then wait at least 3 months. Only reason Fed will pivot is because something is broken in economy which means more bad stuff happening in short term.

I am hoping we can start going long come Nov 2023.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2ckrqb wrote

Im pretty indifferent about it. Before this week i had a pretty clear cut scenario of spy touching 320 by march. Honestly im not as convinced now.

Unless we get an actual catalyst to push us down like that and that could be some terrible earnings, a huge cpi rebound, jpow being bearish again or your standard black swan. But honestly right now im scratching my head on what is going to cause markets to dip that hard an low.

Most of the cycle sell offs this year have been event oriented with most being cpi/ fomc. But unless something changes i dont see that same level of fear to drop us. Of course sentiment can and will change. I dont think we see ath either but im thinking we could lock into a bigger range like 380 to 410 and spend a ling time consolidating there.

We arent quite bullish enough to make the markets rip and for big money to come back in but also arent quite bearish enough for people to sell aggressively again

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arpatel530 t1_j2clhsc wrote

I think the real drop to 3200 will be mid part of the year when we get earnings miss, proper earnings revisions downward and finally the effects of interest rate hikes. At that time, I'm hoping to see real panic to flush out all the over leveraged folks.

Right now we are getting 4% risk free and we should be 5% next year when Fed finally hits it's rate target. Rather that then trying to get an extra 3% for equities (assuming 8% historical annual gains).

Also we finally get a proper bear market lasting longer than 18 months.

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letitrainchaos t1_j2cmuif wrote

You are still full of excuses. Lets hope you dont get listed as a scammer in the near future ✌️ and the fact still stands, you never provided proof in all your history. Show a bit of professionalism and learn reading comprehension because you added a few words in my mouth because you got a bit too emotional. Stay on topic.

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DaddyDersch OP t1_j2cn32p wrote

I do wonder if we see q1 turn out better than expected and mid to late spring cpi starts rebounding with worse q2 eanrings to start a leg down

I wanna be bearish but markets were clear that 378 was the line

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Pjrousche t1_j2cr0z8 wrote

How many lines do I have to draw on my chart before I start making money

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2dh0s9 wrote

I mean markets do what they want regardless of data, data is a good excuse. If they set us up intentionally for a miss then it would be a good bet to see markets need and excuse to tank. Thing is they can’t run the whole “pivot” talk anymore since dot plot was released and first cut is confirmed by years end. So nothing sooner will be priced in. Now we will start worrying more about a recession and suh

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ErectoPeentrounus t1_j2dmi57 wrote

yea this next year is tough ngl. February and march are easy to guess as dumps. January is the dice roll since there’s a wide range of how far it can pull back.

Kinda curious since I know u keep track of data but how often are the JPM collar targets reached by the stock are some point during the quarter.

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StrangeInsanity t1_j2dml80 wrote

Well, my puts are done. All my gains for the year will be gone when we open Tuesday

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Potential_Project_48 t1_j2f51ct wrote

We are going to pay HEAVY taxes this year, my friend. Sucks.

Anyways, I personally have been bullish on the technical side, that we have to hit at least 390 before we can begin the next leg down.

The issue of course, is when.

This last week, I think has been pure noise and driven primarily by MM flows and algos, next week will be interesting what happens when the big boys come back...

Cem Karsan has been absolutely on point all this year, and he says that until Jan 10, the market is to move sideways with a slight bearish directionality. After Jan 10, he said we are going to have a big bear market rally, and then the big one (crash) to come after OPEX sometime by March.

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Potential_Project_48 t1_j2f6wb7 wrote

Taxes, if that's not enough, the quarterly obligations suck ass for the interest charged on them if not paid...

Yeah, that's exactly why he predicts that. He even said the capitulation could be delayed until mid year as well to July. Reason being that vol sellers have completely pushed skew to the zero percentile, and they will continue to do so. Interest rate shocks take a long time to move through the system. Optimism can pick up and we even break out of the downward trendline as it seems that we are indeed getting a soft landing along with fed pause...

Until the unprecedented tightening hike effects finally burst through the pipeline, the shit hits the fan, and we enter a depression. Crash.

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